Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was higher on follow through buying worries about growing conditions in Texas and the southwest and also in other world production areas along with good export demand.  Futures trends are up again.  The temperatures should be more moderate in Texas and there have been some showers.  The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas.  Monsoon rains are reported as verify uneven in India and Pakistan and some flooding has been reported in the Gujurat of India.  Some central areas and Eastern areas have missed rains.  Some crops are lost in the worst hit areas of the northwest parts of India due to flooding.  China is reporting improved production conditions as rains have improved in growing areas.  It has been too hot and dry in Turkey and production losses are possible.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers this week.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Texas will see scattered showers on today and about Thursday. Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The USDA average price is now 68.17 ct/lb.  ICE certified stocks are now 22,977 bales, from 24,596 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7110 and 7380 December.  Support is at 7020, 6970, and 6900 December, with resistance of 7080, 7160, and 7220 December.

 

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Aug 4

Data quoted in bales for week ending Jul 27. Totals may not add due

to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual

producer information. Source: USDA

Weekly     Season                         Weekly      Season

Southeast          0          0  Southwest              36,014      52,748

NC                –          –   Okla                       –           –

SC                –          –   Texas                 36,014      52,748

Ga                –          –   Kansas                     –           –

Ala               –          –

Fla               –          –  Far West                    0           0

Va                –          –   NM                         –           –

Ariz                       –           –

Delta              0          0   Calif                      –           –

Miss              –          –

Tenn              –          –  Pima                        –           –

Mo                –          –  Other                       0           0

Ark               –          –  Total US               36,014      52,748

La                –          –  pct tenderable           91.7        89.0

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 01, 2017                

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   264,963

: Positions                                                                               :

:   58,830    38,773    52,894    65,380   154,529    75,854     3,422   252,958   249,618:   12,004    15,344

: Changes from: July 25, 2017              (Change in open interest:       1,206)         :

:      -96    -2,902     1,487       494     3,118      -928      -110       957     1,593:      250      -386

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     22.2      14.6      20.0      24.7      58.3      28.6       1.3      95.5      94.2:      4.5       5.8

: Total Traders:   291          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       98        84        87        59        61        28        14       232       204:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little lower last week and remains in a trading range.  Futures were higher on Friday.  Florida weather is very good as rains are reported each day and as no hurricanes have yet formed in the Atlantic.  There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit.  The busiest part of the hurricane season is coming in the next few weeks.  The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US.  Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop.  Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought.  Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good.  Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 132.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 142.00, 145.00, and 148.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 1, 2017   

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    14,572                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    7,725     4,546     1,087         0         0       463     5,083       216       665       640     1,993 :

: Changes from:     July 25, 2017                                                                              :

:       29       358        59         0         0       -45      -244        46        76       -46        29 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     53.0      31.2       7.5       0.0       0.0       3.2      34.9       1.5       4.6       4.4      13.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    71                     :

:       22        15         4         0         0         7        12         4        10        11        13 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE 

General Comments:  New York and London closed a little lower on Friday.  Everyone is talking about the potential for reduced Arabica production and the possibility of reduced exports from Brazil.  The weather forecasts kept outlooks for near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions in Brazil.  Producers are now worried about an extended outbreak of dry weather as it is almost flowering time in Brazil.  Reports from Reuters in the middle of last week that Broca worm is moving into crops is bringing ideas of additional losses.  The harvest in Brazil has been delayed somewhat due to rains, but it is dry now so harvesting should be increasing.  Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil is not good and that many beans are small.  The cash market is quiet with little interest from producers or roasters.  Chart trends are up in New York.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.563 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 133.05 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers.  Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 150.00 September.  Support is at 135.00, 133.00, and 131.00 September, and resistance is at 142.00, 145.00 and 148.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 2100, 2090, and 2060 September, and resistance is at 2160, 2170, and 2180 September.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 01, 2017                

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   257,929

: Positions                                                                               :

:   36,731    51,466    71,456    93,026   112,276    46,663    13,252   247,875   248,450:   10,053     9,479

: Changes from: July 25, 2017              (Change in open interest:      -7,029)         :

:      281    -9,687    -5,006    -1,588     7,484      -868    -1,052    -7,181    -8,262:      152     1,232

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     14.2      20.0      27.7      36.1      43.5      18.1       5.1      96.1      96.3:      3.9       3.7

: Total Traders:   458          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      128       138       158       136       125        27        14       379       361:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 08/01/2017

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/

Processor/User                      Swap Dealers

OI           Long         Short         Long         Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe

149,387       68,451        89,345        4,677         7,815        4,143

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

100.0%        45.8%        59.8%          3.1%          5.2%          2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

159           51           49            10             8             8

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                       Other Reportables

Long          Short      Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================

28,831         6,040       21,207     1,337        2,905      14,586

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

19.3%          4.0%         14.2%     0.9%         1.9%           9.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

38            15            19       13           7             18

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long       Short

=======================

6,155      3,346

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.1%       2.2%

SUGAR              

General Comments:  Futures in London and New York were lower as disappointed longs liquidated positions.  It still looks like the market has now turned trends up and that good speculative buying might be seen on further any price weakness, but the failure to hold above 1500 October has been noted and might be a reason for more selling this week.  The big harvest in Brazil continues, but some of the processing will probably switch now to ethanol due to tax changes this week.  The harvest pace has been below last year until now, but is now above a year ago.  Production potential in India and Thailand seems improved for now as monsoon rains have been better than last year.  It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, but rains have been uneven.  Some northwest areas have been flooded due to big rains.  Other areas are too dry and there could be some damage to crops if more rains do not show up fairly soon.  Thailand is getting rains.  The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.  Some problems are being reported in Europe and Russia for the beet Sugar production.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1540 and 1660 October.  Support is at 1390, 1370, and 1320 October, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 385.00, 380.00, and 377.00 October, and resistance is at 398.00, 407.00, and 410.00 October.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 01, 2017                

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is   928,162

: Positions                                                                               :

:  119,392   192,359   201,552   332,659   438,190   198,726    21,058   852,328   853,158:   75,834    75,004

: Changes from: July 25, 2017              (Change in open interest:       3,579)         :

:    2,467   -21,846     6,371   -12,101    19,196    -1,822     1,623    -5,086     5,343:    8,665    -1,764

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     12.9      20.7      21.7      35.8      47.2      21.4       2.3      91.8      91.9:      8.2       8.1

: Total Traders:   246          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       73        57        78        81        70        22        11       209       188:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 08/01/2017

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/

Processor/User                      Swap Dealers

OI          Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe

83,501       43,401        48,127        12,341       11,735        1,219

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

100.0%        52.0%        57.6%         14.8%         14.1%          1.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

133           51           48            12             5             4

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                       Other Reportables

Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================

14,770        11,948        4,614     1,634         143        1,656

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

17.7%         14.3%          5.5%     2.0%         0.2%          2.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

16            24            10       5            3             6

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long       Short

=======================

3,866      4,059

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.6%       4.9%

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  Futures were lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  Follow through selling is possible today and perhaps tomorrow..  The market faded at some big resistance areas early in the week and at the end of the week.  Not much has changed fundamentally, although it is becoming warmer and drier in Ivory Coast.  The rest of West Africa is still getting showers and more moderate temperatures.  Chocolate manufacturers in general have reported improved sales volumes and ideas are that the better sales can continue as chocolate and cocoa are relatively cheap.  The charts show that futures are in up trends.  Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year.  Ghana also expects a good crop this year  The offer side of the market appears to be less right now as West Africa is between crops.  Some of the next crop has already been sold and is off the market.  The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good.  East African conditions are now called good.  Brazil remains too dry.  Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.304 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1940, 1900, and 1890 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2090 September.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 September, with resistance at 1600, 1620, and 1650 September.

 

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Aug 4

Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars

per metric ton. Settling price for August 4, 2017. All pricing is considered

nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.

N/A denotes not available.

Type                                               Differential/      Price

Ratio

Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1                                360        2,381.00

Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1                          278        2,298.50

Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1                              215        2,236.00

Ecuador                                                 118        2,138.50

Sanchez f.a.q.                                          200        2,221.00

PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter            2.67        5,396.07

Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat             0.82        1,650.00

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 01, 2017                

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   296,986

: Positions                                                                               :

:   38,679    77,156    64,683   120,766   114,684    52,497    26,054   276,626   282,577:   20,361    14,409

: Changes from: July 25, 2017              (Change in open interest:     -12,167)         :

:      -74   -12,008    -2,579    -7,227     4,459      -417    -1,484   -10,297   -11,612:   -1,870      -556

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     13.0      26.0      21.8      40.7      38.6      17.7       8.8      93.1      95.1:      6.9       4.9

: Total Traders:   248          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       71        83        81        48        36        26        10       194       173:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 08/01/2017

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/

Processor/User                       Swap Dealers

OI           Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe

304,906       187,833      181,245        26,090       19,598       20,197

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

100.0%        61.6%        59.4%          8.6%          6.4%          6.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

162           53           47            19            9             12

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money                       Other Reportables

Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================

15,997        29,958       23,344     2,567         294       26,391

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

5.2%          9.8%          7.7%     0.8%         0.1%          8.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

23            27            21       14           5             21

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long       Short

=======================

2,486      3,879

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

0.8%       1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Softs Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Security Question * * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.