Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

NOV SOYBEANS

We’re definitely right in the middle of a weather mkt with the attendant Volatility –  Tues’s action was a prime example – with the mkt opening 25 higher Tues nite – but settling almost 20 lower!  The opening was prompted by a larger than expected dip in the crop ratings but was neutralized by a cooler, wetter weather forecast!  Still, given that Beans are an August crop, it’s way too early to put them away!!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 596,000 MT (200-450) – Thur Sales Were 1.932MMT (1.4-2.1)
  • CROP RATINGS – Good-to-Exc dropped to 57% (LW-61)

Ill – 59 (67)     Ind – 47(49)    Iowa  –  62(63)

Blooming –  69(67)         Setting Pods –  29 (27)

These #’s opened the mkt sharply higher but it couldn’t hold the rally

  • USDA JULY REPORT

Prod –         4.260 BB     (Est – 4.241, LY- 4.307)

Yield –         48.0 B/A     (Est – 47.8, LY – 52.1)

Stocks –      460 MB       (Est – 483)

Global –       93.5 MMT  (Est – 92.2)

  • WEATHER – “Hot & Dry” has been an issue this season but an inconsistent One – too often giving way to cool, wet periods

Even with this week’s precipitous drop from the highs, Nov Beans are still 40 cents up on the month – with the critical pod-setting dead ahead!

DEC CORN

Dec Corn has had the roller coaster ride you would expect during the month of July – “POLLINATION MONTH” – rallying almost 25 cents in early July – only to break 36 cents from it’s highs off a bearish weather forecast!  The mkt, in effect, has traded down to the low end of its 4 month range – and this should probably hold the mkt – given its cheapness, a sharp reduction in corn acres, solid exports & a falling US Dollar!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 935,000 MT (750-1.175) – Thur sales were 578,000 MT (350-800)

Mon – 135,000 MT to Unk

  • CROP RATINGS – Good-to-exc –  62% (LW-64)

Ill – 63(62)    Ind – 47(47)      Iowa – 68(71)

Silking – 67(69)

  • JULY USDA REPORT

Prod –         14,065  BB (ly – 15,148)

Yield –         170.7 B/A  (ly – 174.6)

Stocks-       2,295 MB   (May – 2,295)

Global –      194.3 MMT (May -195.3)

  • WEATHER FORECASTS- it seems the mkt is only as good as its latest 6-10 or 8-14 forecast –as evidenced by the volatile swings Since late June –
  1. a) 40 cents up  (376 – 416)
  2. b) 34 cents down (416 – 3820
  3. c) 24 cents up (382 – 406)
  4.     d) 26 cents down  (406 – 380)

In the last two months, Dec corn has been in a broad range (374-418) a full-fledged drought is not the scenario – but there are enough crop issues to keep the mkt range-bound – non-weather factors such as a falling dollar, a rallying crude oil mkt & solid exports are helping to support!!

SEPT WHEAT

Day two of the Wheat Quality Council Tour found average Spring wht yields at 35.8 bu/a (ly – 46.9  avg – 46.6) – today is the last day of the tour!  It appears the mkt rallied hard since Mid-May – over $3.00 in the Minn Spg Wht contract – but overstated the damage- then corrected – but now the crop tour is re-acquainting the trade with how much damage was exacted upon the crop!

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AUG CATTLE

After dropping $13 since early June, Aug Cat has fallen into a $5.00 range (113-118) for the past 6 weeks! The Bears point to a down cash mkt, upcoming production increases for the 3rd & 4th Qtr & a large long open interest!  The Bulls have a large discount to cash on their side!  As a result, the two opposite camps are offsetting each other –keeping the mkt range-bound!

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AUG HOGS

Despite the “Dog Days of Summer” & a slumping , stagnant cattle mkt, Aug Hogs have hung tough – still remaining within a few dollars of their early July highs!

The strength is derived from two factors:

  • Oct Hogs have a $22 discount to cash – normally its $14
  • The 7/25 Cold Storage showed a 30 % drop in pork belly stocks

From last month – 22,291 (31,589) – reflecting the “uber demand” for Bacon – nowadays!

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Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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