Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to higher on Friday in consolidation trading. Speculators were willing to buy the market on the break due to forecasts for hot and dry weather that are causing some crop stress to continue in parts of Texas and into western growing areas. There does not seem to be any relief in sight, so crops could suffer more this week. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good and crop conditions are reported to be mostly good-by producers and observers. Warmer temperatures have arrived to support development and there has been more than enough rain. Monsoon rains are reported as mostly good in India and Pakistan and ideas of bigger production in that part of the world. Northern areas could use more rain, but southern and Eastern areas are in very good condition. Futures remain near support areas on the daily charts, but are showing solid down trends on weekly charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.59 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 62,690 bales, from 66,825 bales yesterday. ICE said that 10 contracts were delivered against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,533 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 6620, 6560, and 6500 December, with resistance of 6800, 6870, and 6890 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 11, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 258,028
: Positions :
: 58,254 37,433 50,477 59,493 150,903 77,059 3,533 245,283 242,345: 12,744 15,683
: Changes from: July 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: 5,304) :
: -2,491 2,101 1,409 8,226 4,274 -523 -454 6,621 7,331: -1,317 -2,027
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.6 14.5 19.6 23.1 58.5 29.9 1.4 95.1 93.9: 4.9 6.1
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 82 75 58 58 27 13 223 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on Friday and lower for the week. There are currently no threats to production of Oranges in Florida. There is nothing else really appearing in the seas at this time to indicate that hurricanes are developing. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US despite the poor production. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good after rains over the last month. Th estate had been in drought, but the drought is gone now and trees have responded well to the increased moisture. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 132.00, 136.00, and 142.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 11, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,111 :
: Positions :
: 6,974 4,960 1,101 0 0 519 3,867 158 705 424 1,843 :
: Changes from: July 3, 2017 :
: 85 35 166 0 0 -62 88 15 97 73 72 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.2 37.8 8.4 0.0 0.0 4.0 29.5 1.2 5.4 3.2 14.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 21 15 5 0 0 6 12 4 11 12 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher on Friday. The close in New York was strong and charts indicate that a bottom might be completed. The political problems in Brazil appeared to Support prices and cause adjustments in the Real. Talk that there could be another year of production that is less than demand is still around. The weather in Brazil remains with temperatures above damaging levels. Most forecasts suggest that the temperatures could average near to above normal much of this week after a couple of cooler nights early this week. There is no damaging cold in sight for now. Buying interest improved in cash markets last week due mostly to the potential trend change in futures. Prices can move higher this week and have the chance to move as high as 140.00 NY September within the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.549 million bags. ICE said that 18 contracts were delivered against New York July futures today, and that total deliveries for the month are now 54 contracts. The ICO composite price is now 127.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 140.00 and 150.00 September. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 126.00 September, and resistance is at 135.00, 137.00 and 139.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2210 and 2320 September. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2060 September, and resistance is at 2170, 2180, and 2200 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 11, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 271,284
: Positions :
: 38,447 79,504 78,079 100,458 94,298 43,938 10,928 260,922 262,810: 10,362 8,474
: Changes from: July 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: 490) :
: -4,618 -4,156 3,551 2,385 1,239 952 538 2,270 1,171: -1,780 -681
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 29.3 28.8 37.0 34.8 16.2 4.0 96.2 96.9: 3.8 3.1
: Total Traders: 491 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 153 157 141 119 26 12 390 374:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/11/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
141,944 68,152 81,329 4,822 11,067 3,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.0% 57.3% 3.4% 7.8% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 52 49 12 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
28,702 9,411 16,081 1,319 2,931 14,672
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.2% 6.6% 11.3% 0.9% 2.1% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 15 17 13 5 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,488 2,745
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.2% 1.9%

DJ Tanzania May Coffee Exports Fall vs Prior Month
By George Mwangi
Special to DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Tanzania’s coffee export volume slumped 22% to 2,800 metric tons in May compared with 3,600 tons in April, the Bank of Tanzania said Monday.
The value of Tanzanian overseas coffee sales also dropped 13% to $8.7 million in May from $10.0 million the prior month, due to the reduced volume and despite an increase in unit prices by 9% to $3,076 a ton, the bank said in its monthly economic review for June, citing provisional data from the Tanzania Revenue Authority.
Global coffee prices, however, declined due to an increase in coffee inventories following improved weather conditions in Brazil, the bank said.
Most of Tanzania’s coffee beans are sold at a weekly auction by the Tanzania Coffee Board although direct sales are allowed. Tanzanian arabica auctions use New York ICE futures prices as their benchmark, while robusta prices follow the London-traded contract on ICE. The auction is in a recess from May until late July due to reduced supplies between seasons, Primus Kimaryo, acting director-general of the Tanzania Coffee Board said.
Tanzania’s arabica and robusta coffee production is expected to drop 20% between May 2016 and April 2017 to 48,000 tons, reflecting unfavorable weather and the natural biennial arabica cycle where a bumper harvest is followed by a smaller one, Mr. Kimaryo said.
Tanzania–like most other East African coffee-growing nations–exports nearly all its beans.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were higher again on Friday and closed near the highs of the recent trading range. It appears that the political situation in Brazil caused some moves in the Real and also in Sugar. The UNICA data last week also appeared to support prices or at least did not hurt the price action. Growing conditions are rated good in just about all producer countries right now, and the big harvest in Brazil continues. The trade is keeping a close eye on the value of the Real for ideas about marketing patterns of the mills. Production in India and Thailand is expected to improve. It is raining in about half of India now as the monsoon is active. However, the north and west has yet to see much rain, and other areas that have seen rain are still a little short for best production potential. Thailand also hopes for an improved monsoon season this year and is getting rains now. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1370, 1320, and 1300 October, and resistance is at 1440, 1470, and 1510 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 390.00, 385.00, and 377.00 October, and resistance is at 399.00, 407.00, and 410.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 11, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 918,156
: Positions :
: 112,981 225,500 193,236 347,332 404,127 194,157 17,254 847,706 840,116: 70,451 78,040
: Changes from: July 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: -13,438) :
: -21,205 -11,376 445 12,323 1,597 -4,487 -5,777 -12,924 -15,112: -514 1,674
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 24.6 21.0 37.8 44.0 21.1 1.9 92.3 91.5: 7.7 8.5
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 64 77 81 66 23 15 210 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/11/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
91,170 48,163 55,306 10,957 8,863 1,326
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.8% 60.7% 12.0% 9.7% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 48 52 11 4 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,574 14,117 4,033 1,226 362 2,072
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.5% 15.5% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 25 9 5 4 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,819 5,091
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 5.6%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures markets were higher to finish the week. The news is starting to change as Callebrut reported strong earnings and as offer volumes seem to be falling in West Africa. Reports from Ivory Coast indicate it could lose some production from local flooding. The flooding could hurt early deliveries of the next crop by up to 20%. The move came after positive European demand news released on Tuesday as the quarterly grind was above expectations. The North American data is expected to be positive as well. Ideas about a supply glut in the market remain and keep speculators on the short side of the market. Harvest activities in West Africa are completed, and development of the next crop is called good. All of the countries in the region expect higher year on year production. Ivory Coast has already sold a big part of the projected production for the coming year. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good, although more rain would be beneficial. Brazil remains too dry. Good conditions are still being reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.514 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are 969 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1830, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1950, 1990, and 2010 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1450, 1430, and 1400 September, with resistance at 1510, 1530, and 1540 September.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Jul 14
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for July 14, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 365 2,314.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 270 2,219.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 200 2,149.00
Ecuador 115 2,064.00
Sanchez f.a.q. NA
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.65 5,164.85
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat NA

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 11, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 306,350
: Positions :
: 42,451 94,982 66,383 128,453 109,753 44,265 19,952 281,552 291,071: 24,798 15,279
: Changes from: July 3, 2017 (Change in open interest: 12,267) :
: 3,935 5,628 2,404 2,722 11 -310 3,403 8,752 11,444: 3,516 823
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 31.0 21.7 41.9 35.8 14.4 6.5 91.9 95.0: 8.1 5.0
: Total Traders: 264 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 88 86 47 36 25 10 200 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/11/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
320,980 198,164 183,394 21,778 19,681 20,277
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 61.7% 57.1% 6.8% 6.1% 6.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 49 40 15 11 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,728 39,085 28,516 4,651 666 24,710
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 12.2% 8.9% 1.4% 0.2% 7.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 37 20 11 8 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,156 4,652
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 1.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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