Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul. 17, 2017 49 Jul 13, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 17, 2017 88 Jul 12, 2017
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 17, 2017 18 Jul 12, 2017
CORN July Jul. 17, 2017 205 Jul 13, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 17, 2017 8 Jul 11, 2017
OATS July Jul. 17, 2017 5 Jun 28, 2017
SOYBEAN July Jul. 17, 2017 123 Jul 13, 2017
WHEAT July Jul. 17, 2017 3 Jul 10, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets were sharply lower for a second day as USDA showed higher than expected HRW and HRS production. USDA might adjust the Spring Wheat production lower in coming reports, but seems to be finding better production of HRW than the market expected after the terrible Spring in HTW areas. Spring Wheat crops continue to deteriorate as the weather in the northern Great Plains remains extreme. This will be a big problem here this year, and maybe in Canada as well as crop conditions there are less than perfect. The crop conditions should deteriorate more as the weather in the Great Plains should stay hot and dry. The hot and dry weather extends into Canada and could be hurting yield potential there as well. Canada has less area planted to Spring Wheat this year, and some of these crops have been hurt by warm and dry weather as well. The Winter Wheat harvest continues and there is talk of mixed yields and quality.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and scattered showers in the east. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 497, 454 September. Support is at 502, 490, and 480 September, with resistance at 530, 537, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 508, 498, 468 September. Support is at 511, 503, and 499 September, with resistance at 525, 527, and 548 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 667 and 534 September. Support is at 738, 728, and 726 September, and resistance is at 780, 801, and 825 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower after trading a little higher most of the day. It was a very slow session. The close was disappointing and some more selling is possible today. The USDA reports were disappointing but USDA will begin field surveys of the crops soon and the production data is very subject to change. The harvest has started in some Gulf coastal areas so more concrete data will be available soon. Futures remain supported overall by the prospect of much reduced production of Rice in the US this year. Demand remains strong as the weekly export sales report showed very good demand for rough and milled long grain Rice, primarily to Latin America. The US weather that remains very uneven. The southern and Delta growing areas should get somewhat better weather this week as forecasts call for warmer and drier weather.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1174, 1168, and 1162 September, with resistance at 1193, 1210, and 1217 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was sharply lower initially on ideas of moderating weather in the next couple of weeks. The weather forecasts kept the fund selling alive. Funds were massive sellers. USDA cut Feed demand for this year to account for the higher than expected stocks levels seen in the quarterly reports last month. It made no yield changes for next year, but did adjust for the higher than expected planted area seen in the reports at the end of last month. Longer range weather forecasts called for improved weather in ten to fourteen days. This weather forecast called for better rains in central and Eastern areas of the Midwest. There is more Corn to be moved before harvest of the next crop. The crop remains highly variable and in various stages of development. Pollination and maturation will be long and drawn out affairs. Crops are also suffering in the Great Plains, where it has been dry and very hot.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 366, 364, and 360 September, and resistance is at 372, 374, and 377 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 269, 267, and 265 September, and resistance is at 281, 264, and 294 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on forecasts for better weather in ten to fourteen days. USDA increased export demand for the current crop year after not doing anything last month. Forcast for rains in central and Eastern parts of the Corn Belt in ten to fourteen days allowed the funds to be huge sellers in the entire complex. Buying interest was hard to find unless it was some short covering. The market could move a little lower, but should find some stability in the short term as the weather forecasts get sorted out.. It was the best performer in the room yesterday. Some Brazil selling has been seen this week as producers and merchants have taken advantage of higher prices. More selling from South America should be seen on rallies.
Overnight News: China bought 1.3 million tons of US Soybeans last night as part of a signing ceremony that covered 12.5 million tons for next year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 974, 964, and 952 August, and resistance is at 989, 1003, and 1008 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 313.00, and 311.00 August, and resistance is at 322.00, 324.00, and 326.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3240, and 3210 August, with resistance at 3350, 3390, and 3420 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower again yesterday on selling tied to weakness in Chicago.. Current forecasts call for hot and dry weather to continue in the western Prairies this week, although some rains have been seen in western areas this week. Ideas are that crop conditions are mostly good, although the condition seems to vary by local regions, with some areas too dry and some areas too wet and not many areas in between. Reports of tight supplies and limited offers in the cash market provided the best reasons to buy. Commercials are good buyers and farmers are not really selling. Palm Oil was a little higher with Chicago. Weakness in Chicago and Dalian was cited as a reason for some selling as well. Export demand is tailing off as Ramadan is ending. However, MPOB showed that production has not been as strong as expected. Futures are showing that a short term bottom might have been completed last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 498.00, and 495.00 November, with resistance at 509.00, 514.00, and 517.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2660 September. Support is at 2530, 2510, and 2500 September, with resistance at 2610, 2630, and 2650 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or isolated showers and storms in the west, frequent periods of precipitation in the east through the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 17-Sep 150 Sep 37 Sep 23-Aug minus 2 Aug
July 21-Sep 40 Sep 37 Aug
August 24-Sep 55 Sep 33 Sep
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July
August 67 Aug minus 36 Aug 24-Sep
September 75 Sep minus 29 Sep 25-Sep
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 12
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 537.20 dn 13.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 519.00 dn 13.20
2 Can 506.00 dn 13.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 539.00 dn 13.20
2 Can 526.00 dn 13.20
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 215.00 unchanged
Can Feed 220.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 210.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jul 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 665.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
AUg 650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 627.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 670.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 655.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 622.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2670.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 255.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2900)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 283,962 lots, or 10.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 4,004 4,004 4,004 4,004 3,778 4,004 226 4 0
Sep-17 3,892 3,892 3,808 3,820 3,900 3,834 -66 231,940 166,232
Nov-17 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,865 3,929 3,865 -64 2 4
Jan-18 3,890 3,891 3,826 3,837 3,902 3,852 -50 51,654 74,322
Mar-18 – – – 3,883 3,933 3,883 -50 0 12
May-18 3,916 3,916 3,865 3,868 3,935 3,887 -48 336 1,578
Jul-18 – – – 3,867 3,914 3,867 -47 0 0
Sep-18 3,930 3,944 3,895 3,895 3,964 3,919 -45 26 88
Nov-18 – – – 3,873 3,917 3,873 -44 0 4
Corn
Turnover: 733,578 lots, or 12.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 – – – 1,632 1,630 1,632 2 0 0
Sep-17 1,656 1,669 1,656 1,666 1,668 1,664 -4 449,400 1,363,856
Nov-17 1,688 1,694 1,687 1,689 1,690 1,689 -1 120 1,434
Jan-18 1,705 1,712 1,700 1,707 1,715 1,707 -8 279,356 804,212
Mar-18 1,720 1,721 1,720 1,721 1,725 1,720 -5 10 1,278
May-18 1,762 1,762 1,753 1,759 1,767 1,758 -9 4,692 48,422
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,943,176 lots, or 54.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 – – – 2,807 2,842 2,807 -35 98 0
Aug-17 2,899 2,899 2,812 2,841 2,913 2,848 -65 70 444
Sep-17 2,835 2,849 2,787 2,803 2,873 2,813 -60 1,316,922 1,542,914
Nov-17 2,848 2,849 2,798 2,807 2,872 2,813 -59 40 248
Dec-17 2,837 2,847 2,793 2,809 2,861 2,803 -58 76 600
Jan-18 2,865 2,873 2,802 2,825 2,898 2,835 -63 583,450 1,052,978
Mar-18 2,760 2,760 2,751 2,754 2,831 2,756 -75 18 424
May-18 2,802 2,805 2,740 2,760 2,826 2,765 -61 42,502 167,148
Palm Oil
Turnover: 536,300 lots, or 28.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 – – – 5,568 5,568 5,568 0 0 0
Aug-17 5,378 5,500 5,378 5,500 5,420 5,438 18 4 0
Sep-17 5,436 5,450 5,356 5,396 5,466 5,398 -68 355,860 357,950
Oct-17 – – – 5,368 5,368 5,368 0 0 4
Nov-17 – – – 5,292 5,292 5,292 0 0 30
Dec-17 – – – 5,314 5,314 5,314 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,264 5,264 5,190 5,222 5,276 5,218 -58 177,030 468,362
Feb-18 – – – 5,292 5,292 5,292 0 0 10
Mar-18 – – – 5,240 5,240 5,240 0 0 4
Apr-18 – – – 5,456 5,456 5,456 0 0 14
May-18 5,350 5,392 5,338 5,360 5,406 5,358 -48 3,406 30,350
Jun-18 – – – 5,544 5,544 5,544 0 0 16
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 470,052 lots, or 28.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 – – – 5,910 6,062 5,910 -152 0 0
Aug-17 – – – 6,050 6,050 6,050 0 0 54
Sep-17 6,086 6,094 6,018 6,048 6,110 6,054 -56 314,084 591,116
Nov-17 – – – 6,200 6,200 6,200 0 0 14
Dec-17 – – – 6,096 6,152 6,096 -56 0 4
Jan-18 6,206 6,246 6,166 6,194 6,264 6,200 -64 152,242 433,516
Mar-18 – – – 6,230 6,230 6,230 0 0 4
May-18 6,318 6,332 6,244 6,270 6,330 6,270 -60 3,726 19,592
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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