Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Wednesday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2017 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,255 14,074 13,595-14,253 14,065 15,148
Soybean Production 4,260 4,241 4,078-4,277 4,255 4,307
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June USDA 2016
Corn Yield 170.7 * 168.9 165.0-170.7 170.7 174.6
Soybean Yield 48.0 ** 47.8 46.0-48.0 48.0 52.1
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2016-17
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,370 2,336 2,275-2,395 2,295
Soybeans 410 434 382-470 450
Wheat 1,184 1,176 1,142-1,184 1,161
2017-18
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,325 2,131 1,823-2,444 2,110
Soybeans 460 483 300-588 495
Wheat 938 879 757-957 924
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 227.5 225.7 223.0-228.0 224.6
Soybeans 94.8 93.2 92.5-94.0 93.2
Wheat 258.1 255.2 249.0-257.0 256.4
2017-18
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 200.8 195.2 190.0-198.8 194.3
Soybeans 93.5 92.2 90.3-93.0 92.2
Wheat 260.6 256.6 250.0-262.0 261.2
***
2017-18 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Wednesday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range USDA June 2016-17
All Wheat 1,760 1,746 1,634-1,834 1,824 2,310
Winter Wheat 1,279 1,256 1,200-1,281 1,250 1,672
Hard Red Winter 758 747 693-775 743 1,082
Soft Red Winter 306 303 295-332 298 345
White Winter 216 211 199-222 209 245
Other Spring 423 414 305-490 N/A 534
Durum 58 76 64-90 N/A 104
2016-17 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 97.0 97.5 97.0-99.0 97.0
Soybeans 114.0 114.0 113.3-115.0 114.0
2016-17 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 41.0 40.0 39.0-41.0 40.0
Soybeans 57.8 57.7 57.0-58.0 57.8

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jul 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 460 410 197 :149.66 145.17 132.39 345.09 351.78 312.87
Brazil na na : 64.00 61.50 54.38 107.00 114.00 96.50
Argentina na na : 8.50 8.00 9.92 57.00 57.80 56.80
China na na : 0.15 0.15 0.11 14.00 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 2,292 2,097 1,687 : 11.99 11.65 11.69 56.34 54.25 51.52
Corn 2,325 2,370 1,737 :152.46 159.74 119.62 1,036.90 1,068.79 968.81
China na na : 0.02 0.03 0.00 215.00 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na : 28.50 27.50 21.64 40.00 41.00 29.00
S. Africa na na : 1.70 2.20 0.84 12.50 16.40 8.21
Cotton(a) 5.30 3.20 3.80 : 36.81 36.56 35.28 115.36 106.54 96.76
All Wheat 938 1,184 976 :178.42 181.64 172.87 737.83 754.31 736.98
China na na : 0.80 0.80 0.73 130.00 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na : 30.00 27.00 34.69 150.00 145.47 160.48
Canada na na : 22.00 20.00 22.13 28.35 31.70 27.59
Argentina na na : 11.50 11.20 9.60 17.50 17.00 11.30
Australia na na : 19.00 24.00 16.12 23.50 35.11 24.17
Russia na na : 30.50 27.80 25.54 72.00 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na : 14.00 18.00 17.43 24.00 26.80 27.27
Sorghum 49 53 37 : na na na
Barley 73 108 102 : na na na
Oats 34 52 57 : na na na
Rice 32.6 46.1 46.5 : 43.21 42.63 40.45 483.66 483.81 471.87

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in response to the USDA reports. USDA made only small changes to production base don the acreage report from last month, but did nothing else. World data was considered negative for prices as well as world supplies look to increase. It was a negative report, but USDA will start to adjust yields next month when it starts to do field surveys. Speculators were willing to buy the market on the break due to forecasts for hot and dry weather that are causing some crop stress to continue in parts of Texas and into western growing areas. The daily charts show that the market is back in the recent trading range. There does not seem to be any relief in sight, so crops could suffer more this week. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good and crop conditions are reported to be mostly good by producers and observers. Warmer temperatures have arrived to support development and there has been more than enough rain. Monsoon rains are reported as mostly good in India and Pakistan and ideas of bigger production in that part of the world. Northern areas could use more rain, but southern and Eastern areas are in very good condition. USDA should adjust for planted and harvest area in the reports this Wednesday, but should not make any real changes in yield projections until it has some field data to work with.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers off and on into the weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather this week and a few showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 65.49 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 72,473 bales, from 77,766 bales yesterday. ICE said that 8 contracts were delivered against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,516 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 13,000 bales this year and 152,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 2,600 balers this year and 2,100 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6670, 6660, and 6620 December, with resistance of 6800, 6870, and 6890 December.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Jul 12
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
========================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
prev Jul 12 prev Jul 12
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.07 10.07 12.23 * 12.06 **
Harvested 9.51 9.51 11.38 * 11.18 **
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 867 867 810 * 816 **
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.80 3.80 3.20 3.20
Production 17.17 17.17 19.20 19.00
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 20.98 20.98 22.41 22.21
Domestic use 3.30 3.30 3.40 3.40
Exports 14.50 14.50 13.50 13.50
Use, total 17.80 17.80 16.90 16.90
Unaccounted -0.02 -0.02 0.01 0.01
Ending stocks 3.20 3.20 5.50 5.30
Avg. farm price 68.50 68.00 54.00 – 74.00 54.00 – 68.00
=========================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Jul 12
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2017/18 (Projected)
World
Jun 89.34 114.73 36.85 116.51 36.84 -0.15 87.71
Jul 90.27 115.36 36.77 117.03 36.81 -0.16 88.73
United States
Jun 3.20 19.20 0.01 3.40 13.50 0.01 5.50
Jul 3.20 19.00 0.01 3.40 13.50 0.01 5.30
Total foreign
Jun 86.14 95.53 36.84 113.11 23.34 -0.16 82.21
Jul 87.07 96.36 36.76 113.63 23.31 -0.17 83.43
=============================================================================

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mixed to lower in response to the neutral to negative production report from USDA. There are currently no threats to production of Oranges in Florida. There is nothing else really appearing in the seas at this time. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US despite the poor production. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good because of the irrigation. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition. USDA should show about unchanged production in Florida on Wednesday.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 127.00, 124.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 136.00, 142.00, and 146.00 September.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits-Jul 12
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States
and United States: 2015-2016 and Forecasted July 1, 2017.
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year)
================================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized Production
Boxes/1 Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ——————————————————–
2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17
===============================================================================
—— 1,000 Boxes 2/ —– —– 1,000 Tons ——
===============================================================================
Oranges
California, all 58,500 48,000 2,340 1,920
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 47,200 40,000 1,888 1,600
Valencia 11,300 8,000 452 320
Florida, all 81,700 68,700 3,677 3,092
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 36,100 33,000 1,625 1,485
Valencia 45,600 35,700 2,052 1,607

Texas, all 1,691 1,370 71 58
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 1,351 1,090 57 46
Valencia 340 280 14 12
United States, all 141,891 118,070 6,088 5,070
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 84,651 74,090 3,570 3,131
Valencia 57,240 43,980 2,518 1,939
Grapefruit
California 3,800 4,000 152 160
Florida, all 10,800 7,800 459 332
Red 8,310 6,300 353 268
White 2,490 1,500 106 64
Texas 4,800 4,800 192 192
United States 19,400 16,600 803 684
Tangerines and mandarins 4/
California 21,600 24,000 864 960
Florida 5/ 1,415 1,620 67 77
United States 23,015 25,620 931 1,037
Lemons
Arizona 1,750 1,650 70 66
California 20,900 19,000 836 760
United States 22,650 20,650 906 826
Tangelos 6/
Florida 390 (NA) 18 (NA)
==============================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins
in California-80,Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.
2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. For 2015-2016 included small
quantities of Temples in Florida. Beginning in 2016-2017 Temples included in
tangerines and mandarins.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
5/ Small quantities of Temples in Florida.
6/ Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins
for Florida.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Jul 12
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 7/1/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/1/2017 7/2/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 209.80 275.11 -23.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.86 7.49 -8.4%
Total 216.67 282.60 -23.3%
Pack
Bulk 2.30 1.20 91.2%
Retail/Institutional 1.49 1.48 0.7%
Total Pack 3.78 2.68 41.3%
Reprocessed -3.78 -2.68 41.3%
Pack from Fruit – – NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.04 -0.46 -90.8%
Imports – Foreign 1.56 0.72 116.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.10 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.17 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.67 0.01 6059.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 210.69 274.07 -23.1%
Retail/Institutional 8.35 8.97 -6.9%
Total 219.04 283.04 -22.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.06 3.59 -14.8%
Exports 0.25 0.22 13.0%
Total (Bulk) 3.31 3.81 -13.1%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.54 1.44 6.7%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.54 1.44 6.7%
Total Movement 4.85 5.26 -7.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 207.37 270.25 -23.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.81 7.53 -9.5%
Ending Inventory 214.19 277.78 -22.9%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
1-Jul-17 2-Jul-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Pack
Bulk 146.44 165.10 -11.3%
Retail/Institutional 54.73 62.46 -12.4%
Total Pack 201.17 227.56 -11.6%
Reprocessed -126.71 -135.01 -6.1%
Pack from Fruit 74.46 92.55 -19.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -3.38 -1.75 92.8%
Imports – Foreign 199.26 159.17 25.2%
Domestic Receipts 5.96 12.44 -52.1%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.75 0.18 322.8%
from Non-Reporting Entity 2.56 5.49 -53.3%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.17 2.11 -44.3%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 438.30 489.17 -10.4%
Retail/Institutional 61.52 70.27 -12.5%
Total 499.82 559.45 -10.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 173.92 186.76 -6.9%
Domestic 57.00 32.17 77.2%
Exports 230.92 218.92 5.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 54.70 62.74 -12.8%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 54.70 62.74 -12.8%
Total Movement 285.63 281.67 1.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 207.37 270.25 -23.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.81 7.53 -9.5%
Ending Inventory 214.19 277.78 -22.9%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher as traders searched for news. It was mostly a quiet session. Talk that there could be another year of production that is less than demand appears to be causing the buying interest, but this interest has been covered for now and the market needs something else. The weather in Brazil has been cold, but well above damaging levels. Most forecasts suggest that the temperatures this week could average near to above normal. There is no damaging cold in sight for now. There is still no real interest in buying by industry and the ideas that big stocks are still in origin countries. The New York market action remains weaker overall due to ideas of good supplies and reports of weak demand, while London has been able to hold rallies lower due to reduced offers from Vietnam and Indonesia.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.542 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against New York July futures today, and that total deliveries for the month are now 36 contracts. The ICO composite price is now 123.66 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 123.00, and 120.00 September, and resistance is at 131.00, 135.00 and 137.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 21990 September, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2170 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were higher in consolidation trading. Trade attention was on other markets yesterday. Growing conditions are rated good in just about all producer countries right now, and the big harvest in Brazil continues.. The trade is keeping a close eye on the value of the Real for ideas about marketing patterns of the mills. Production in India and Thailand is expected to improve. It is raining in about half of India now as the monsoon is active. However, the north and west has yet to see much rain, and other areas that have seen rain are still a little short for best production potential. Thailand also hopes for an improved monsoon season this year and is getting rains now. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1460 and 1370 October. Support is at 1320, 1300, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1360, 1400, and 1440 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 364.00 and 355.00 October. Support is at 374.00, 370.00, and 367.00 October, and resistance is at 386.00, 393.00, and 397.00 October.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Sugar – Jul 12
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use
==============================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
prev Jul 12 prev Jul 12
==============================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 2,053 2,053 1,536 1,440
Production 8,832 8,836 8,738 8,738
Beet sugar 4,988 4,988 4,988 4,988
Cane sugar 3,844 3,848 3,750 3,750
Florida 2,051 2,055 2,000 2,000
Hawaii 43 43 0 0
Louisiana 1,612 1,612 1,600 1,600
Texas 138 138 150 150
Imports 3,130 3,130 3,332 3,557
TRQ 1,578 1,578 1,373 1,549
Other program 375 375 175 175
Other 1,177 1,177 1,784 1,833
Mexico 1,162 1,162 1,774 1,823
Total supply 14,016 14,020 13,606 13,735
Exports 125 125 25 25
Deliveries 12,355 12,455 12,477 12,578
Food 12,200 12,300 12,322 12,423
Other 155 155 155 155
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0
Total use 12,480 12,580 12,502 12,603
Ending stocks 1,536 1,440 1,104 1,132
Stocks to use ratio 12.3 11.4 8.8 9.0
==============================================================================

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Down 1.4% in 2nd Half of June — Unica
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of June compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 47.6 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 1.4% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.97 million tons of sugar, up 6%, and made 1.8 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 7.7%.
The production mix for the second half of last month was 50.5% sugar to 49.5% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 47% sugar and 53% ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south region grows about 90% of the country’s cane.
In the season from April 1 through July 1, mills in the region crushed 198.7 million tons of cane, down 7.8% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 0.3% to 11 million tons, and ethanol output fell 14.3% to 7.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through July 1 was 47.4% sugar to 52.6% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 43.4% sugar and 56.6% ethanol.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures markets were higher for the first time in a week on reports that Ivory Coast could lose some production from local flooding. The flooding could hurt early deliveries of the next crop by up to 20%. The move came after positive European demand news released on Tuesday as the quarterly grind was above expectations. Ideas about a supply glut in the market remain and keep speculators on the short side of the market. Harvest activities in West Africa are completed, and development of the next crop is called good. All of the countries in the region expect higher year on year production. Ivory Coast has already sold a big part of the projected production for the coming year. It said yesterday that it has already sold 1.0 million tons of the coming crop into the world market. That means that there should be less offer in the cash market. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good, although more rain would be beneficial. Brazil remains too dry. Good conditions are still being reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.545 million bags. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are 970 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1720 September, with resistance at 1840, 1870, and 1900 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1400 September. Support is at 1430, 1400, and 1370 September, with resistance at 1490, 1510, and 1530 September.

DJ Ghana Seeks To Ramp up Local Cocoa Processing — Market Talk
0909 GMT – Ghana wants to process more of its cocoa beans locally as the world’s No.2 grower seeks to shield farmers from effects of volatile global prices. Ghana’s Presidency notes that there is “no future for teeming masses” of farmers with an economy that is “structured around the production and export of raw materials”. Ghana, on course to register is largest cocoa crop in 3 years of more than 800,000 tons, wants to raise local processing to 50% of total beans produced from the current 20% to boost farmers’ incomes amid floundering prices. “Ghana will no longer become mere producers and exporters of cocoa beans … we will continue the policy of processing more and more of our cocoa here,”President Nana Akufo-Addo says. (Nicholas.Bariyo@wsj.com ; @Nicholasbariyo)

DJ European Cocoa Grindings in 2 Q Beat Expectations
By David Hodari
European processing volumes of raw cocoa beans rose 2.1% in the second quarter year-over-year, slightly outperforming industry expectations, according to data released Tuesday by the European Cocoa Association.
Cocoa grinding–the amount of raw cocoa processed into butter and powder for the manufacturing of confectionary and chocolate–ticked up to 331,850 metric tons of beans in the April-June period–although that represented a slight fall from the first quarter–,the Brussels-based ECA said.
The rise consolidated the 1.1% rise recorded in the first quarter of 2017 and was higher than the expectations of analysts and traders surveyed The Wall Street Journal. On average, traders had expected an increase of 1.6%, which one London-based trader referred to as “gentle.”
The data came after a quarter in which investors balanced bumper West African yields with tepid European demand to calibrate their expectations.
Grinding figures are often used as a proxy for demand but traders say they can also reflect the location and importance of factories or the movement of beans.
The release of the figures came one day before Swiss-based Barry Callebaut AG–the world’s largest cocoa processing company–is set to release its first-half results for its Europe, Middle East, and Africa division.
Grinding numbers for North America, from the National Confectioners Association, and for Asia–from the Cocoa Association of Asia–are expected to be released next week. The WSJ poll put NCA second-quarter grinding up 2.5% and CAA grindings up by an average of 14.5%.
The ECA represents 20 companies in the European Union and Switzerland, including Barry Callebaut, Cargill Cocoa & Chocolate, Ferrero SpA, Nestle SA and Mondelez International Inc.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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