Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower and trends are down on the charts. The daily charts show that futures could be oversold and in need of a short covering rally, but it is possible now that the market is in an extended trend lower that could last at least through the rest of the year. The growing weather in the US is generally good and crop conditions are reported to be good by producers and observers. Warmer temperatures have arrived to support development and there has been enough rain. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week in most production areas, and growing conditions should remain good. The US and maybe the world will produce much bigger crops this year. Monsoon rains are appearing in India and Pakistan and ideas of bigger production in that part of the world. On the other hand, China has been too dry. Central Asia has been dry, but conditions are rated as good. Overall, the market expects more production in the world against stagnant demand, but demand has been stronger than expected this year and cheaper prices could keep demand next year stronger than expected and cause a bigger drawdown in stocks levels than anticipated.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get a few showers today, and in the Southeast through Wednesday. Dry weather late in the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 69.09 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 478,113 bales, from 476,100 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 7080, 7010, and 6950 July, with resistance of 7290, 7340, and 7560 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 13, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 296,841
: Positions :
: 87,718 17,233 61,336 53,678 195,444 78,835 7,711 281,567 281,724: 15,274 15,117
: Changes from: June 6, 2017 (Change in open interest: 2,381) :
: -7,020 4,249 6,105 1,926 -11,981 3,051 2,065 4,063 438: -1,682 1,943
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.6 5.8 20.7 18.1 65.8 26.6 2.6 94.9 94.9: 5.1 5.1
: Total Traders: 313 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 73 91 60 67 27 13 261 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and could be trying to find a short term bottom. Both the daily and weekly charts show that a bottom could have been completed. Selling has abated with the Valencia harvest coming to a close. It is hurricane season, and an above average year is expected in the Atlantic. Some systems have been forming in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean and one even formed off the coast of Africa, a rare occurrence for so early in the season. Florida weather has shown improvement as rains continue in the state. These rains have been very beneficial as the state had been in drought. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good because of the irrigation. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is almost over. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures this week and a few showers this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 150.00 and 160.00 July. Support is at 140.00, 138.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 145.00, 148.00, and 150.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 13, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,085 :
: Positions :
: 7,736 6,641 1,130 0 64 815 3,623 238 630 398 2,345 :
: Changes from: June 6, 2017 :
: 500 397 58 -1 -11 -154 76 25 21 1 -44 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.3 44.0 7.5 0.0 0.4 5.4 24.0 1.6 4.2 2.6 15.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 76 :
: 25 18 5 0 4 9 12 4 12 10 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Jun 16
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 6/10/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
6/10/2017 6/11/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 217.15 282.07 -23.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.09 7.69 -7.8%
Total 224.23 289.76 -22.6%
Pack
Bulk 1.55 1.04 48.4%
Retail/Institutional 1.17 1.09 7.1%
Total Pack 2.72 2.14 27.2%
Reprocessed -2.72 -2.14 27.2%
Pack from Fruit – – NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.02 0.32 -92.8%
Imports – Foreign 3.51 1.41 149.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.56 0.11 405.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – 0.02 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 – NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.11 0.06 80.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 220.13 282.89 -22.2%
Retail/Institutional 8.26 8.78 -5.9%
Total 228.39 291.67 -21.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.93 3.60 9.1%
Exports 0.35 0.35 -0.8%
Total (Bulk) 4.28 3.95 8.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.44 1.82 -20.9%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.44 1.82 -20.9%
Total Movement 5.72 5.78 -0.9%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 215.85 278.94 -22.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.82 6.96 -2.0%
Ending Inventory 222.67 285.90 -22.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
10-Jun-17 11-Jun-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Pack
Bulk 141.55 161.68 -12.5%
Retail/Institutional 50.79 57.47 -11.6%
Total Pack 192.33 219.15 -12.2%
Reprocessed -117.87 -126.60 -6.9%
Pack from Fruit 74.46 92.55 -19.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -3.37 -0.64 426.8%
Imports – Foreign 191.05 150.43 27.0%
Domestic Receipts 5.08 11.59 -56.2%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.74 0.18 313.4%
from Non-Reporting Entity 2.56 5.18 -50.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.50 2.00 -74.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 432.49 485.27 -10.9%
Retail/Institutional 57.57 65.28 -11.8%
Total 490.06 550.55 -11.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 160.84 175.03 -8.1%
Domestic 55.79 31.30 78.2%
Exports 216.63 206.33 5.0%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 50.75 58.33 -13.0%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 50.75 58.33 -13.0%
Total Movement 267.39 264.65 1.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 215.85 278.94 -22.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.82 6.96 -2.0%
Ending Inventory 222.67 285.90 -22.1%

COFFEE
General Comments: It was a tale of two markets last week, with London moving sharply higher and New York moving a little lower into new lows for the move. The New York market action remains weaker overall due to ideas of good supplies and reports of weak demand. These ideas were reinforced last week as the ICO projected adequate supplies for the coming year and the GCA showed record supply levels in the US. The cash market remains very slow with almost no interest seen from roasters as they see the big US supplies and think that prices will remain cheap. Offers remain in the cash market, and differentials are stable. New York has featured some buying support from speculators as they have become more two sided in trading the market as the Winter season is approaching in Brazil. However, speculators and commercials are still mostly bearish. London had been strong as news surfaced that supplies in the cash market are tight due to reduced Vietnamese selling and tight supplies in the country. Offers are less and seen at high prices from Robusta countries such as Vietnam. Indonesia and Brazil are also very low on supplies. The Robusta market is still relatively strong compared to Arabica and due to the short supplies available to the market as it works to curb demand through the higher prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.517 million bags. GCA said that stocks are now7.114 million bags, from 6.890 million last month. The ICO composite price is now 123.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 120.00 and 115.00 July. Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 July, and resistance is at 126.00, 129.00 and 134.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2145, 2165, and 2310 July. Support is at 2090, 2050, and 2030 July, and resistance is at 2140, 2150, and 2170 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 13, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 257,027
: Positions :
: 41,833 72,498 63,153 95,751 102,459 42,670 9,580 243,408 247,690: 13,619 9,337
: Changes from: June 6, 2017 (Change in open interest: -18,510) :
: 1,814 5,467 -18,057 -1,660 -4,603 -980 -1,237 -18,884 -18,431: 374 -79
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 28.2 24.6 37.3 39.9 16.6 3.7 94.7 96.4: 5.3 3.6
: Total Traders: 459 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 132 142 132 117 24 15 365 352:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/13/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
189,564 94,752 102,147 5,745 16,084 5,006
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 50.0% 53.9% 3.0% 8.5% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 55 50 16 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,037 12,081 20,641 1,396 3,784 24,931
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.4% 6.4% 10.9% 0.7% 2.0% 13.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 24 23 8 9 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,056 4,891
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.2% 2.6%

DJ Brazil Coffee Harvest Lagging Slightly in Key Areas — Market Talk
14:11 ET – Brazilian coffee farmers who work with the Cooxupe coffee cooperative, the country’s biggest, are slightly behind in their harvest this year compared with last year, the cooperative says. On June 9, the cooperative’s members had finished 11.4% of the of the harvest, compared with 12.6% on the same date last year, Cooxupe says. Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of coffee, responsible for about one-third of world production. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures in both London and New York were lower last week, and both markets made new lows for the move before trading sideways for the second half of the week. London weakened on spreads against New York. It remains the frequent reports of increased supplies to the market that has pressured prices in the last few weeks. Production conditions have been better this year in Brazil, and a better harvest is anticipated in the next couple of months as the Sugarcane harvest moves to its peak. Production in India and Thailand is expected to improve in the coming year as both countries anticipate better monsoons than the failed monsoons of last year. It is raining in parts of India now as the monsoon arrived a few weeks ago. The Indian weather service estimates that the monsoon will be within the normal range. Thailand also hopes for an improved monsoon season this year and is getting rains now. China is still importing significantly less Sugar so far this year. The weather in Latin American countries away from Brazil appears to be mostly good. Most of Southeast Asia has had good rains and rains continue.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 October. Support is at 1330, 1300, and 1270 October, and resistance is at 1400, 1440, and 1470 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 375.00 October. Support is at 382.00, 379.00, and 376.00 October, and resistance is at 393.00, 397.00, and 403.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 13, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,041,794
: Positions :
: 141,132 204,204 237,451 389,972 495,302 199,600 22,519 968,154 959,476: 73,640 82,319
: Changes from: June 6, 2017 (Change in open interest: 17,822) :
: -2,197 11,722 863 17,905 7,658 224 -2,138 16,796 18,106: 1,026 -283
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 19.6 22.8 37.4 47.5 19.2 2.2 92.9 92.1: 7.1 7.9
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 64 90 80 72 22 13 220 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/13/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,240 56,147 60,544 10,968 8,733 2,862
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.2% 61.6% 11.2% 8.9% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 50 50 14 4 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,275 13,510 3,793 455 1,267 2,008
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.6% 13.8% 3.9% 0.5% 1.3% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 25 11 3 7 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,732 5,523
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 5.6%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures markets were lower last week and both markets faded from important nearby resistance areas on the weekly charts. However, the tone of the market has changed and this could be more of a corrective moved than one to new lows. The overall market situation remains generally bearish, although fundamentals could change in the longer term. Harvest activities in West Africa are completed. That means that there is less offer in the cash market as much of this Cocoa has already been sold. The demand from Europe is reported weak over all, and the North American demand has been weaker. However, chocolate prices are falling in Germany and should be falling in other parts of the world now to help move product and to get the market flowing again as input costs are much lower now. The next production cycle still appears to be big as the growing conditions around the world are generally very good. West Africa has seen much better rains this year and now getting warm and dry weather. Growing conditions are good. East African conditions are now called good. Good conditions are still being reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.609 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1900 September, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2130 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1590, 1560, and 1530 September, with resistance at 1670, 1710, and 1720 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 13, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 276,511
: Positions :
: 40,523 76,249 53,857 117,067 118,364 43,580 14,313 255,027 262,783: 21,485 13,729
: Changes from: June 6, 2017 (Change in open interest: -18,808) :
: -802 -1,519 -4,067 -5,241 -3,903 -10,784 -8,047 -20,895 -17,537: 2,087 -1,271
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 27.6 19.5 42.3 42.8 15.8 5.2 92.2 95.0: 7.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 82 74 46 37 26 8 190 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/13/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
332,801 198,178 191,614 21,341 22,465 25,047
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.5% 57.6% 6.4% 6.8% 7.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 52 42 17 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,198 30,462 27,961 2,657 112 30,443
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.3% 9.2% 8.4% 0.8% 0.0% 9.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 25 20 13 7 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,976 4,697
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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