Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on ideas of improving crop conditions here and around the world. Trends remain down as the market shifts from the current tight situation to one with much more potential production in the US and overseas for the coming production year. Warmer and drier weather is expected through this weekend in most production areas, and growing conditions should be good. Monsoon rains are appearing in India and Pakistan and ideas of bigger production in that part of the world. On the other hand, China has been too dry in eastern areas, but is getting improved rains now. Western areas are rated as good. Central Asia has been dry, but conditions are rated as good due to irrigation.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get a few showers through this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 71.74 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 472,144 bales, from 468,011 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 69,400 bales this year and 197,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 7300, 7220, and 7150 July, with resistance of 7340, 7560, and 7670 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower. It looks like there is some speculative buying going on as prices are relatively cheap and the hurricane season is underway However, it is only light volume buying as the bad production data for Florida is already known and demand remains poor here and around the world.. The Florida weather has shown some improvement as rains have moved into the state. These rains were very beneficial as the state had been in drought. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. Trends remain mostly down on the charts, and so far there has been very little buying interest. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good because of the irrigation. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures this week and a few showers this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 136.00, 134.00, and 130.00 May, with resistance at 142.00, 145.00, and 148.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher as there are no real threats for Coffee areas in Brazil from cold weather. It was cold last weekend, but not cold enough to damage crops. Relatively mild conditions are expected for the rest of the week, and the weather should also be drier to promote more active harvesting and crop drying. Reports from Brazil indicate that the current harvest is featuring small beans at this time, but the harvest will be expanding in the short term and there is a chance for better quality later on. Demand ideas remain weak as most roasters are still not buying much in world cash markets. Differentials are stable. London is finding Support from ideas of tight Robusta supplies for the market and on talk that Vietnamese exporters are having trouble finding enough Robusta to honor contracts. London remains the strength of the market and is helping keep New York from moving lower.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.512 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 123.25 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but showers are possible today. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 119.00 July, and resistance is at 129.00, 133.00 and 135.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2055 and 2145 July. Support is at 2000, 1970, and 1940 July, and resistance is at 2050, 2070, and 20110 July.

DJ Brazil Coffee Harvest Lagging Slightly in Key Areas — Market Talk
14:11 ET – Brazilian coffee farmers who work with the Cooxupe coffee cooperative, the country’s biggest, are slightly behind in their harvest this year compared with last year, the cooperative says. On June 9, the cooperative’s members had finished 11.4% of the of the harvest, compared with 12.6% on the same date last year, Cooxupe says. Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of coffee, responsible for about one-third of world production. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower and made new lows for the move. The potential for a big increase in production and Sugar available to the market this year after a short year last year continues to be the overriding issue in the minds of traders. Demand should see a short term increase soon as Ramadan is ending. That could create some new buying interest as stocks in Moslem countries are probably a little low. However, the market remains more interested in the production potential now in Brasil and in a few months from northern countries and also India and Thailand. Ideas are that world Sugar production will be higher as long as Brazil keeps the current production mix together. The harvest is moving along and more cane is now being delivered to mills. Ideas are also that India and Thailand will have bigger crops this year after the failed monsoon cut Sugarcane production in both countries last year. They both need a good monsoon season, and monsoon rains are now being reported in India. Most Sugarcane areas have now seen some precipitation or will see some by the end of the week. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 October. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1300 October, and resistance is at 1440, 1470, and 1510 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 375.00 October. Support is at 382.00, 379.00, and 376.00 October, and resistance is at 393.00, 397.00, and 403.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Cocoa futures closed lower. Overall, it still seems like the market is trying to put together what could be an important low London has already turned its trends up, but so far New York has not penetrated the top of the range. The harvest is basically over for Cocoa in West Africa and this has helped relieve selling pressure on futures. Traders look for demand to improve as lower prices filter down to the retail level, but chocolate prices have been holding strong at stores. The fundamentals remain mostly bearish, but are now part of the price. Production is improved this year and demand has not improved as much as hoped, but demand is expected to increase over time. West Africa is seeing more rain after being a little dry and trees should be in good condition.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.618 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1920 July, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2130 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1770 July. Support is at 1600, 1550, and 1520 July, with resistance at 1670, 1710, and 1730 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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