Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 15
For the week ended Jun 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 373.4 0.0 6982.2 6527.4 6263.8 0.0
hrw 141.1 0.0 2463.7 2197.7 2121.9 0.0
srw 82.7 0.0 684.6 738.0 616.4 0.0
hrs 82.5 0.0 1942.9 2267.5 1816.2 0.0
white 66.2 0.0 1686.9 1172.0 1530.8 0.0
durum 1.0 0.0 204.1 152.1 178.5 0.0
corn 600.7 13.5 54617.2 45543.4 10547.0 2754.5
soybeans 340.2 314.0 58937.5 49270.3 6972.7 3436.8
soymeal 166.8 110.4 9833.3 9538.0 2336.2 622.9
soyoil 30.3 0.0 957.1 961.8 111.0 2.3
upland cotton 69.4 197.6 13936.9 8430.8 2105.5 3402.2
pima cotton 3.3 0.0 616.1 527.9 75.6 69.5
sorghum 60.6 0.0 4367.5 7496.1 454.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 28.5 9.2 28.4 0.0
rice 104.5 -0.3 3449.6 3248.1 458.3 21.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly higher as it remains dry in parts of the northern Great Plains and Canada and as less than solid harvest results continue to be reported from the central and southern Great Plains. USDA showed much worse than expected conditions for Spring Wheat for the second week in a row and there are now fears of a short supply of high protein Wheat for the US in the new marketing year. The Winter Wheat harvest was less rapid than anticipated. The harvest is moving forward in Texas and Oklahoma, and reports are mixed. Results indicate that the protein levels are not strong in these areas. Yields are lower as well. The Kansas crop started its harvest late last week. Yield reports were low on the initial harvest data, but protein levels were considered satisfactory. The harvest in Kansas should expand this week as the weather should be clear. The trade anticipates a better quality crop as the harvest expands in the state. There is also renewed talk of hot and dry weather in Europe that could hurt yield potential there. The chart trends are up longer term, but more mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get precipitation today, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should get precipitation today, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see chances for showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 439, 433, and 426 July, with resistance at 450, 455, and 457 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 481 and 493 July. Support is at 451, 448, and 442 July, with resistance at 460, 462, and 468 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 650 July. Support is at 618, 611, and 606 July, and resistance is at 633, 640, and 646 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again as some new selling emerged after the opening and pushed prices into some stop loss orders. Futures were able to rebound once the stops were filled, and the market closed in the middle of the range, although with still significant losses on the day. The move seemed to be chart related as much as anything as there was not a lot of news out there to push prices much in either direction. The market still is facing a tighter situation in the coming year, but there has been nothing new to report in recent days. USDA showed good crop progress and improving conditions on Monday. Even so, there are a lot of problems with the crop and the market will wait for the planted area data at the end of the month to get a better idea of the total area for Rice this year. The acreage will be important as yields will be down this year. Price action could be choppy until then.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a few showers through this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1099, 1085, and 1054 July, with resistance at 1119, 1125, and 1136 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and Oats were higher on uneven crop conditions and on some forecasts for beneficial rains to continue into next week. However, these forecasts might not be good as some models now more preferred by analysts call for warm and dry weather to be the main feature for the next couple of weeks. It has been very dry all of June until now, but some showers are expected to appear over the next few days to at least provide some help for Corn that is facing increasing stress. Crops in some areas are showing signs of stress as leaves are Rolling and plan development has stopped in some areas as the Corn attempts to hang on and survive the hot and dry conditions. The roots have not developed enough to tap into subsoil moisture as crops were planted into wet soils and during a rainy and cool Spring. Spotty emergence has been a big problem in Indiana. Crop progress remains generally good, with planting now about done and emergence is reported everywhere. Ideas are already that the top edge of yield potential is gone, although the potential for good production is still very much there. But, the weather must stay good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 July, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 384 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 250, 247, and 245 July, and resistance is at 258, 264, and 267 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed yesterday on the potential for wetter and cooler weather for the next few days that could Support better crop development. The USDA crop reports on Monday were not up to expectations of the trade as crop condition ratings were well below trade expectations. The conditions might start to improve as cooler and wetter weather is in the forecast for the next week or so. There had been almost no rain in some of the more important growing areas until now. However, showers and storms started to move from west to east yesterday and brought some short term relief to some areas in Iowa and Illinois. Indiana started to see some storms last night. Producer selling from the US and from South America is thought to be above 950 or so basis July futures. Overall the trade remains bearish on the price potential for the entire complex.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 920, 910, and 903 July, and resistance is at 945, 949, and 953 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 297.00, and 295.00 July, and resistance is at 306.00, 310.00, and 312.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3180, 3150, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3230, 3250, and 3290 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on the Canadian Dollar strength. Some forecast for beneficial rains in the western Prairies was also negative for prices. Eastern areas are in relatively good condition at this time. Even so, planting is behind normal in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Reports of tight supplies and limited offers in the cash market provided the best reasons to buy. Palm Oil was higher on buying related to the positive MPOB data and strong exports. Stronger world vegetable oil prices also supported Palm Oil..
Overnight News: SGs said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 523,505 tons this month, from 613,465 tons last month. ITS said that exports are now 508,960 tons, from 617,697 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 506.00, 500.00, and 495.00 July, with resistance at 512.00, 517.00, and 520.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2390, 2360, and 2340 September, with resistance at 2440, 2460, and 2480 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers but still warm today and tomorrow, then chances for showers through the weekend and more moderate temperatures.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 29-Jul 160 July 43 Jul 28-Jul July Price
July 30-Jul 43 Jul 36 Jul
August 35 Sep 42 Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 65 Jul minus 28 Jul
July 65 Jul minus 28 Jul
August 67 Aug minus 21 Aug 25-Sep
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 14
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from ICE
Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 511.20 dn 3.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 544.60 dn 1.60
2 Can 531.60 dn 1.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 556.60 dn 1.60
2 Can 543.60 dn 1.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 190.00 unchanged
Can Feed 178.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 177.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 685.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 660.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 597.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 690.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 665.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 622.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 602.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,730 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 253.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2660)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 246,786 lots, or 9.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 – – – 3,788 3,788 3,788 0 0 68
Sep-17 3,930 3,978 3,916 3,959 3,949 3,949 0 225,364 236,062
Nov-17 – – – 3,997 3,997 3,997 0 0 8
Jan-18 3,901 3,937 3,891 3,921 3,910 3,916 6 20,630 57,618
Mar-18 – – – 3,933 3,927 3,933 6 0 10
May-18 3,936 3,960 3,930 3,950 3,942 3,945 3 710 1,892
Jul-18 – – – 3,946 3,943 3,946 3 0 0
Sep-18 3,952 3,969 3,934 3,965 3,962 3,951 -11 82 52
Nov-18 – – – 3,880 3,880 3,880 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 720,356 lots, or 12.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 1,640 1,648 1,640 1,640 1,643 1,643 0 14 722
Sep-17 1,675 1,686 1,671 1,678 1,676 1,678 2 577,952 1,648,312
Nov-17 1,703 1,710 1,703 1,710 1,704 1,706 2 100 1,460
Jan-18 1,741 1,752 1,737 1,748 1,741 1,743 2 137,070 743,580
Mar-18 1,742 1,752 1,742 1,750 1,746 1,749 3 26 1,474
May-18 1,790 1,795 1,779 1,792 1,787 1,787 0 5,194 30,070
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,397,846 lots, or 37.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 2,559 2,579 2,475 2,579 2,591 2,546 -45 134 1,360
Aug-17 2,669 2,691 2,546 2,649 2,668 2,629 -39 68 624
Sep-17 2,680 2,689 2,651 2,664 2,676 2,665 -11 1,232,390 2,594,886
Nov-17 2,693 2,693 2,661 2,674 2,687 2,675 -12 10 254
Dec-17 2,685 2,685 2,685 2,685 2,693 2,685 -8 6 442
Jan-18 2,716 2,725 2,690 2,701 2,713 2,703 -10 148,432 695,650
Mar-18 2,699 2,699 2,678 2,678 2,691 2,688 -3 4 268
May-18 2,676 2,681 2,650 2,661 2,673 2,658 -15 16,802 94,408
Palm Oil
Turnover: 496,226 lots, or 25.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 5,802 5,802 5,374 5,374 5,530 5,588 58 4 2
Aug-17 – – – 5,328 5,328 5,328 0 0 8
Sep-17 5,252 5,282 5,218 5,238 5,232 5,246 14 392,872 479,924
Oct-17 5,268 5,268 5,210 5,242 5,234 5,248 14 38 20
Nov-17 5,178 5,178 5,118 5,118 5,140 5,148 8 4 124
Dec-17 – – – 5,082 5,076 5,082 6 0 2
Jan-18 5,038 5,088 5,030 5,042 5,020 5,056 36 102,336 348,422
Feb-18 – – – 5,142 5,106 5,142 36 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,070 5,034 5,070 36 0 4
Apr-18 – – – 5,186 5,150 5,186 36 0 14
May-18 5,172 5,204 5,162 5,176 5,148 5,178 30 972 13,676
Jun-18 – – – 5,148 5,148 5,148 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 399,258 lots, or 23.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 5,574 5,574 5,574 5,574 5,792 5,574 -218 2 16
Aug-17 – – – 5,700 5,696 5,700 4 0 50
Sep-17 5,832 5,884 5,812 5,840 5,828 5,842 14 341,054 793,578
Nov-17 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 20
Dec-17 – – – 6,034 6,034 6,034 0 0 8
Jan-18 6,000 6,048 5,978 6,006 5,988 6,008 20 57,550 248,716
Mar-18 – – – 5,986 5,968 5,986 18 0 6
May-18 6,092 6,128 6,072 6,096 6,078 6,100 22 652 4,090
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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