Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in reaction to the crop[ progress and condition reports issued by USDA Monday night. USDA showed much worse than expected conditions for Spring Wheat for the second week in a row and there are now fears of a short supply of high protein Wheat for the US in the new marketing year. The Winter Wheat harvest was less rapid than anticipated. The harvest is moving forward in Texas and Oklahoma, and reports are mixed. Results indicate that the protein levels are not strong in these areas. Yields are lower as well. The Kansas crop started its harvest late last week. Yield reports were low on the initial harvest data, but protein levels were considered satisfactory. The harvest in Kansas should expand this week as the weather should be clear. The trade anticipates a better quality crop as the harvest expands in the state. Some rains were seen in eastern Spring Wheat production areas, but reports indicate that areas from the central Dakotas to the west are too dry and are losing the crop. It could turn out to be a very small US crop, and the Canadian Prairies are not in much better condition. The demand for US Wheat is holding well in world export markets and the US Dollar is weaker to help keep US Wheat in the mix for world demand. The chart trends are up.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get precipitation today, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should get precipitation today, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see chances for showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 439, 433, and 426 July, with resistance at 450, 455, and 457 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 481 and 493 July. Support is at 448, 442, and 440 July, with resistance at 460, 462, and 470 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 633 and 650 July. Support is at 611, 606, and 591 July, and resistance is at 640, 646, and 652 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower again in quiet trading. USDA showed good crop progress and improving conditions. Even so, there are a lot of problems with the crop and the market will wait for the planted area data at the end of the month to get a better idea of the total area for Rice this year. The avreage will be important as yields will be down this year. One report from Louisiana highlighted uneven growing conditions and the potential for reduced yields. This had been considered done of the areas with better conditions along with Texas. The weather in most growing areas has improved as it remains warmer and drier. The crop condition improved on a week to week basis, but remains slightly behind the conditions of last year. Prices remain too low to attract much selling interest from producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a few showers through this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1152, 1161, and 1166 July. Support is at 1113, 1105, and 1099 July, with resistance at 1136, 1146, and 1166 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 14
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.02 10.05 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.47 10.56 0.00
Brokens 9.66 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on uneven crop conditions that produced lower than expected crop ratings from USDA. The hot weather seen for the last several days will see some changes as cooler weather is forecast. It has been very dry all of June until now, but some showers are expected to appear over the next week or so in just about all growing areas. Crops in some areas are showing signs of stress as leaves are Rolling and plan development has stopped in some areas as the Corn attempts to hang on and survive the hot and dry conditions. The roots have not developed enough to tap into subsoil moisture as crops were planted into wet soils and during a rainy and cool Spring. Spotty emergence has been a big problem in Indiana. Crop progress remains generally good, with planting now about done and emergence is reported everywhere. Ideas are already that the top edge of yield potential is gone, although the potential for very good production is still very much there. But, the weather must stay good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 July, and resistance is at 381, 384, and 389 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 250, 247, and 245 July, and resistance is at 258, 264, and 267 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher, but Soybean Meal closed slightly lower. The USDA crop reports on Monday were not up to expectations of the trade as crop condition ratings were well below trade expectations. The conditions might start to improve as cooler and wetter weather is in the forecast for the next week or so. There had been almost no rain in some of the more important growing areas until now. Planting progress was slightly behind expectations, and the last of the Soybeans will go in at a slower pace as these are mostly doublé crop and must wait for the Wheat to be harvested. Most Soybeans are in the ground now, and most that is left to be planted are doublé crop beans. speculators appear to be the best sellers right now as they add to short positions. Producer selling from the US and from South America is thought to be above 950 or so basis July futures. Overall the trade remains bearish on the price potential for the entire complex.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 920, 910, and 903 July, and resistance is at 945, 949, and 953 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 297.00, and 295.00 July, and resistance is at 306.00, 310.00, and 312.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3270, 3350, and 3360 July. Support is at 3150, 3120, and 3090 July, with resistance at 3230, 3250, and 3290 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on the Canadian Dollar strength. Some forecast for beneficial rains in the western Prairies was also negative for prices. Eastern areas are in relatively good condition at this time. Even so, planting is behind normal in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Reports of tight supplies and limited offers in the cash market provided the best reasons to buy. Palm Oil was higher on buying related to the positive MPOB data and strong exports..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 529.00, 536.00, and 549.00 July. Support is at 506.00, 500.00, and 495.00 July, with resistance at 517.00, 520.00, and 522.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2400, 2370, and 2340 August, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2540 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers but still warm today and tomorrow, then chances for showers through the weekend and more moderate temperatures.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 29-Jul 160 July 43 Jul 29-Jul July Price
July 30-Jul 45 Jul 36 Jul
August 35 Sep 40 Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 64 Jul minus 27 Jul
July 64 Jul minus 27 Jul
August 72 Aug minus 19 Aug 25-Sep
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 13
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 514.80 up 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 546.20 dn 3.60
2 Can 533.20 dn 3.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 558.20 dn 3.60
2 Can 545.20 dn 3.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 190.00 unchanged
Can Feed 178.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 177.00 dn 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 655.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 615.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Jun 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 660.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 600.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 617.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,720 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 251.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2575)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 223,354 lots, or 8.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 3,788 3,788 3,788 3,788 3,862 3,788 -74 2 68
Sep-17 3,961 3,974 3,925 3,942 3,949 3,949 0 202,706 236,644
Nov-17 – – – 3,997 3,997 3,997 0 0 8
Jan-18 3,925 3,936 3,894 3,907 3,916 3,910 -6 20,466 54,792
Mar-18 – – – 3,927 3,927 3,927 0 0 10
May-18 3,947 3,967 3,931 3,941 3,951 3,942 -9 180 1,708
Jul-18 – – – 3,943 3,943 3,943 0 0 0
Sep-18 – – – 3,962 3,975 3,962 -13 0 50
Nov-18 – – – 3,880 3,880 3,880 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 739,260 lots, or 12.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 1,646 1,651 1,640 1,645 1,656 1,643 -13 50 722
Sep-17 1,670 1,684 1,669 1,683 1,674 1,676 2 576,780 1,653,026
Nov-17 1,712 1,713 1,701 1,709 1,709 1,704 -5 260 1,462
Jan-18 1,736 1,749 1,734 1,748 1,742 1,741 -1 157,840 741,376
Mar-18 1,745 1,750 1,741 1,750 1,744 1,746 2 64 1,476
May-18 1,787 1,793 1,782 1,791 1,787 1,787 0 4,266 28,456
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,127,812 lots, or 30.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 2,595 2,596 2,585 2,585 2,585 2,591 6 16 1,424
Aug-17 2,663 2,682 2,663 2,666 2,661 2,668 7 74 638
Sep-17 2,664 2,689 2,663 2,680 2,656 2,676 20 984,284 2,538,772
Nov-17 2,685 2,696 2,685 2,685 2,671 2,687 16 16 256
Dec-17 2,693 2,695 2,692 2,693 2,682 2,693 11 38 440
Jan-18 2,700 2,726 2,700 2,715 2,695 2,713 18 135,664 672,106
Mar-18 2,688 2,695 2,687 2,692 2,682 2,691 9 46 266
May-18 2,661 2,685 2,661 2,675 2,660 2,673 13 7,674 83,778
Palm Oil
Turnover: 471,016 lots, or 24.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-17 – – – 6,362 6,362 6,362 0 0 0
Jul-17 – – – 5,530 5,530 5,530 0 0 2
Aug-17 – – – 5,328 5,328 5,328 0 0 8
Sep-17 5,212 5,260 5,196 5,242 5,274 5,232 -42 387,836 483,268
Oct-17 5,258 5,258 5,210 5,210 5,220 5,234 14 8 6
Nov-17 – – – 5,140 5,140 5,140 0 0 126
Dec-17 – – – 5,076 5,076 5,076 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,006 5,040 4,990 5,034 5,046 5,020 -26 81,260 338,716
Feb-18 – – – 5,106 5,132 5,106 -26 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,034 5,060 5,034 -26 0 4
Apr-18 – – – 5,150 5,176 5,150 -26 0 14
May-18 5,132 5,164 5,130 5,160 5,162 5,148 -14 1,912 13,468
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 329,568 lots, or 19.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 – – – 5,792 5,792 5,792 0 0 16
Aug-17 – – – 5,696 5,696 5,696 0 0 50
Sep-17 5,804 5,848 5,800 5,832 5,826 5,828 2 278,286 780,758
Nov-17 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 20
Dec-17 – – – 6,034 6,034 6,034 0 0 8
Jan-18 5,968 6,012 5,952 5,996 5,982 5,988 6 50,736 240,800
Mar-18 – – – 5,968 5,964 5,968 4 0 6
May-18 6,054 6,096 6,054 6,084 6,072 6,078 6 546 4,032
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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