Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Sep. Bonds are currently 12 lower at 153’14, 10 Yr. Notes 4 lower at 126’05.5 and the 5 Yr. Notes 2.5 lower at 118’07.5. As of this writing the trade is expecting an increase of 180,000 jobs for non-farm payrolls for tomorrows Jobs Report. We have patiently been on the sidelines awaiting an opportunity to enter the short side in the 155’20 area for Sept. Bonds or the 126’22 area for 10 Yr. Notes. I still believe there will be at least 2 more rate hikes this year. One thing I have learned over the years “don’t fade the Fed”.
Grains: July Corn is 1’0 higher at 373’2, Beans 2’0 higher at 918’0 and Wheat 0’2 higher at 429’4. The overall trend remains down. I suspect we will see Beans below 900’0 in the next couple of weeks, at which time I will be on the lookout for buying opportunities. I am currently on the sidelines.
Cattle: Yesterday both Feeders and Live Cattle closed sharply with the nearby contracts gaining on deferred in the Feeders and deferred gaining on the nearby in the Live market. Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed the following:
DJ Summary for May USDA Monthly Cattle on Feed Data
Fri May 26 12:03:39 2017 EDT
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly cattle-on-feed report,
released at noon ET Friday, and analysts’ estimates as compiled by the Wall
Numbers USDA’s Average Range
2017 2016 estimated of analysts’ of analysts’
% of prev yr estimates
On-feed May 1 10,998 10,783 102 100.8 98.1- 102.3
Placed in Apr 1,848 1,664 111 106.5 103.1- 112.7
Marketed in Apr 1,703 1,658 103 101.8 101.0- 102.7
Note: USDA rounds its estimates to the nearest whole number.
Given the increase in placements I will have to interpret the Report as bearish. Normally I would have recommend putting on spreads going long Feb. or Apr./short Oct. or Dec. on spread basis based on the Report. That being said and given the current discount to cash and recent history of volatility in Cattle spreads, I am staying away from spreading this market for the time being. I am waiting for the market to either go below 116.00 on the Aug. contract where I will be a buyer or above 124.00 where I will be a seller.
Silver: July Silver is currently 27 cents lower at 17.13 and Aug. Gold 6.00 lower at 1269.00 based on a strong Dollar overnight. We remain long Silver. I will be a buyer below the 16.85 level.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 1.00 higher at 2412.00. Treat as a trading affair between 2398.00 and 2418.00
Currencies: As of this writing the June Euro is trading 40 lower at 1.1214, the Yen 70 lower at 0.8982, the Pound 47 lower at 1.2854 and the Dollar Index lower at 97.23. I will be a seller in the Euro above 1.1320 and/or a seller in the Pound above 1.3050. I will be a buyer in the Dollar Index below 96.00.
Questions? Ask Marc Nemenoff today at 312-264-4310
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone.
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