Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed steady to lower and held well considering the weakness in Corn and especially Soybeans. However, the demand for US Wheat is holding well in world export markets and provided some support.. Egypt bought US Wheat this week, and this is the first time that Egypt has bought US Wheat in a while. The export sales report was positive yesterday. US prices were below the competition, so the US got a part of the business. Russian offers were higher priced and the US is now about the cheapest Wheat in the world. There is now a minimal weather risk in prices as the harvest approaches. USDA showed production that was less than expected in the recent WASDE reports. Ideas are that the production could drop even more as USDA should not have accounted for all of the bad weather seen in the growing areas in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains today and next week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should get dry weather or light precipitation. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see some showers and rain through the week. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 420, 416, and 410 July, with resistance at 432, 438, and 440 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 421, 413, and 411 July, with resistance at 434, 438, and 444 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 538, 536, and 530 July, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 556 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower as USDA reported smaller export sales. There is a short crop coming anyway, and the crop just got shorter due to the recent rains in Arkansas. More rain is coming to fields that are already too wet. California is also having problems as planting is very late due to bad weather this year. No condition ratings were posted, but crops are reported to be in marginal condition, especially in Arkansas. Gulf Coast crops are reported to be very good at this time and some crops are now in flood. USDA showed reduced planted area in its new crop estimates, but a very high yield that could be overestimated in any case and especially with the bad weather seen in Arkansas and California so far this season. USDA also cut domestic demand estimates which should be rather stable on a year to year basis. The ending stocks levels were down sharply, but could be reduced even more if the production is less than forecast or the demand proves to be closer to last year in the US market. That is before the loss estimates are included in any projections.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather until precipitation returns by the middle of this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1118 and 1166 July. Support is at 1070, 1065, and 1052 July, with resistance at 1109, 1125, and 1130 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed lower on selling related to the political problems in Brazil. The president has been accused of offering hush money to others and supposedly the offer was recorded on tape. The Real fell sharply and took commodities of importance from Brazil with it. Corn suffered with the news. The export sales report was solid once again. The US planting pace has been very rapid and emergence is being noted. Ideas of overall crop condition range from poor to good depending on the region and the source. The planting progress and overall weather situation in the Midwest remain the focus of the market, and some big storms were seen in western and northern areas yesterday. Showers could return to all areas by the end of the week. Emergence in the Midwest remains slow and will likely speed up now as temperatures have turned very warm. Farmers are ready to replant crops in cold or wet areas as needed, but so far the losses are still being determined.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 364, 361, and 359 July, and resistance is at 369, 372, and 374 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 216 July. Support is at 231, 227, and 224 July, and resistance is at 237, 239, and 242 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower as prices reacted to extreme Brazilian Real weakness. The weakness was caused by a news story in Brazil that the president there had been caught on tape offering bribes for silence in an investigation. The president has denied the charges, but the Real moved sharply lower, anyway, and created ideas of increased farm selling in the country. Some say Brazil farmers are selling in big numbers, others say not, and our best sources say only limited sales are being made. This makes sense to us as producers there tend to hold product in times of uncertainty such as the current times. Basis levels art the Gulf of Mexico were firm, implying new demand for export there. Some South Americans are pricing against July Contracts now and this trend should increase in the next ouple of weeks as some Contracts must be honored. The US export sales report was considered positive for prices. The stronger US demand comes at the expense of the demand for export in South America as producers there remain reluctant sellers due to currency relationships. These factors have kept demand for US Soybeans much stronger than expected for this time of year as US prices have been as cheap or cheaper than those in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 918 July. Support is at 941, 928, and 916 July, and resistance is at 956, 961, and 964 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 300.00 and 285.00 July. Support is at 307.00, 303.00, and 301.00 July, and resistance is at 312.00, 313.00, and 316.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3150, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3300, 3340, and 3420 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed lower in sympathy with the price action in Soybeans amid all of the problems with the politicians in Brazil. Nearby supplies available to the market remain tight. New crop months were a little lower on ideas of improving weather conditions. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt overall demand ideas. There remains little available in the cash market, and this fact is keeping prices relatively strong. Demand from crushers and exporters is moderate. Basis levels have been firm along with futures to encourage sales. Palm Oil was a little higher on strength in Crude Oil. Export demand is off to a strong start this month and has supported futures this week Ideas are that buying is strong for Ramadan. Traders noted good production potential, but demand has come back well from a few months ago. Chart trends remain up, and August made a new high for the move. .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 514.00, and 512.00 July, with resistance at 526.00, 529.00, and 530.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2610, 2590, and 2560 August, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2700 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More rain in all areas this weekend. Temperatures will be mostly above normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 34 Jul 123 July 44 Jul 30-Jul 4-Jul
June 32 Jul 45 Jul 32 Jul
July 32 Jul 42 Jul 34 Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
May minus 27 July
June 40 Jul minus 27 July 50 July
July 53 Jul minus 27 July 40 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 18
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.11 up 2.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 542.70 dn 11.40
2 Can 529.70 dn 11.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 567.70 dn 6.40
2 Can 554.70 dn 6.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 185.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 180.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 710.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 612.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 715.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 617.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2920.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 295.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3210)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 188,136 lots, or 7.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 3,714 3,749 3,688 3,705 3,806 3,717 -89 14 60
Sep-17 3,755 3,773 3,737 3,762 3,783 3,754 -29 172,484 224,960
Nov-17 – – – 3,773 3,773 3,773 0 0 12
Jan-18 3,785 3,801 3,766 3,789 3,817 3,780 -37 14,284 30,468
Mar-18 3,788 3,823 3,785 3,823 3,876 3,791 -85 32 10
May-18 3,840 3,857 3,830 3,841 3,868 3,840 -28 1,316 1,202
Jul-18 – – – 3,881 3,881 3,881 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,897 3,907 3,897 3,907 3,908 3,903 -5 6 20
Nov-18 – – – 3,945 3,945 3,945 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 665,802 lots, or 10.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 1,637 1,639 1,632 1,639 1,631 1,635 4 34 1,164
Sep-17 1,639 1,648 1,638 1,643 1,637 1,643 6 573,042 1,575,700
Nov-17 1,667 1,676 1,666 1,672 1,666 1,672 6 30 1,924
Jan-18 1,682 1,697 1,682 1,695 1,687 1,692 5 88,932 569,408
Mar-18 1,688 1,693 1,686 1,687 1,689 1,688 -1 172 1,718
May-18 1,725 1,737 1,724 1,735 1,725 1,731 6 3,592 12,448
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,875,408 lots, or 51.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 2,765 2,800 2,765 2,784 2,816 2,786 -30 142 1,290
Aug-17 2,763 2,770 2,745 2,751 2,800 2,759 -41 24 748
Sep-17 2,751 2,764 2,732 2,737 2,778 2,744 -34 1,705,320 2,529,628
Nov-17 2,774 2,778 2,759 2,760 2,792 2,770 -22 28 204
Dec-17 2,791 2,791 2,776 2,776 2,803 2,782 -21 12 326
Jan-18 2,775 2,791 2,763 2,768 2,797 2,773 -24 157,428 561,380
Mar-18 2,773 2,775 2,751 2,769 2,785 2,769 -16 48 190
May-18 2,745 2,754 2,726 2,736 2,751 2,738 -13 12,406 23,502
Palm Oil
Turnover: 707,898 lots, or 38.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-17 5,566 5,566 5,566 5,566 5,604 5,566 -38 4 18
Jul-17 – – – 5,408 5,444 5,408 -36 0 4
Aug-17 5,524 5,538 5,496 5,496 5,542 5,530 -12 62 10
Sep-17 5,450 5,528 5,416 5,476 5,514 5,486 -28 641,690 584,466
Oct-17 – – – 5,494 5,494 5,494 0 0 10
Nov-17 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 146
Dec-17 – – – 5,372 5,372 5,372 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,250 5,288 5,210 5,242 5,304 5,256 -48 65,362 183,470
Feb-18 – – – 5,348 5,396 5,348 -48 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,306 5,306 5,306 0 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,370 5,418 5,370 -48 0 18
May-18 5,322 5,358 5,300 5,328 5,374 5,330 -44 780 2,598
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 619,430 lots, or 37.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 5,968 5,972 5,968 5,972 5,994 5,970 -24 4 14
Aug-17 5,836 5,836 5,836 5,836 5,922 5,836 -86 4 58
Sep-17 5,950 5,990 5,912 5,938 6,018 5,956 -62 554,150 814,964
Nov-17 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 20
Dec-17 – – – 6,190 6,190 6,190 0 0 8
Jan-18 6,130 6,156 6,084 6,110 6,184 6,124 -60 65,132 164,464
Mar-18 – – – 6,248 6,248 6,248 0 0 6
May-18 6,210 6,250 6,198 6,230 6,288 6,230 -58 140 1,508
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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