Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – May 18
For the week ended May 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 247.6 393.1 28196.4 20649.1 3471.7 3111.2
hrw 123.6 104.6 11902.9 5957.8 1371.6 890.7
srw 5.4 38.2 2432.7 3208.2 248.2 276.6
hrs 69.5 187.8 8535.9 6886.2 943.0 999.6
white 28.1 61.1 4797.0 3895.5 776.4 869.3
durum 20.9 1.5 528.0 701.4 132.5 75.0
corn 705.3 168.0 52798.6 40434.5 13319.3 2472.9
soybeans 355.3 41.5 57355.1 46929.1 6879.4 2878.9
soymeal 113.6 60.3 9333.1 9171.2 2558.2 461.9
soyoil 14.9 0.6 876.5 855.9 82.1 2.3
upland cotton 120.7 165.1 13657.7 8003.1 3078.8 2621.3
pima cotton 6.5 5.4 600.5 487.2 104.5 53.8
sorghum 56.2 0.0 4310.5 7003.8 656.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 25.5 27.8 7.8 27.8
rice 30.8 0.0 3218.4 3020.5 488.5 13.8

Brazil Plunges Back Into Political Crisis as Markets Brace (5)
Temer denies having authorized any obstruction of justice
The allegations are the latest development of Carwash probe
By Samy Adghirni, Mario Sergio Lima and Rachel Gamarski

(Bloomberg) — Brazil was plunged back into a political crisis reminiscent of last year’s impeachment saga following reports that President Michel Temerwas embroiled in an alleged cover-up scheme involving the jailed former speaker of the lower house of Congress.
One of the country’s largest newspapers reported on Wednesday evening that a secret recording exists of Temer approving a payment to Eduardo Cunha, the mastermind behind last year’s impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff. The tape was submitted to the Supreme Court by two senior executives from meat-packing giant JBS SA as part of a plea bargain deal, according to O Globo newspaper, in which information is offered in exchange for reduced sentences. The paper provided neither a transcript nor a recording.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher on reports of new demand. Egypt bought 115,000 tons of US Wheat out of a total of 295,000 tons yesterday, and this is the first time that Egypt has bought US Wheat in a while. US prices were below the competition, so the US got a part of the business. Russian offers were higher priced and the US is now about the cheapest Wheat in the world. Futures are now testing some important support areas on the charts and these levels held yesterday before bouncing. It is possible that the market found a short term low this week. There is now a minimal weather risk in prices as the harvest approaches. USDA showed production that was less than expected in the recent WASDE reports. Ideas are that the production could drop even more as USDA should not have accounted for all of the bad weather seen in the growing areas in the last couple of weeks. The forecasts call for frequent periods of precipitation at a time when the crop really needs dry conditions. It is also very hot right now in the Great Plains, and this can stress an already troubled crop. There have been some disease reports coming to the surface in the Midwest because of all of the recent rain.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains again over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should mostly rains over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see some showers and rain through the week. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 426, 420, and 416 July, with resistance at 428, 440, and 442 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 421, 413, and 411 July, with resistance at 434, 438, and 444 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 538, 536, and 530 July, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 556 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again in response to news from the Arkansas Extention Service that more Rice acres have been lost in the flooding rains this year. The Service increased its loss estimate at 180,000 acres, from 150,000 acres before. The market reacted as there is a short crop coming anyway, and the crop just got shorter. California is also having problems as planting is very late due to bad weather this year. No condition ratings were posted, but crops are reported to be in marginal condition, especially in Arkansas. Gulf Coast crops are reported to be very good at this time. USDA showed reduced planted area in its new crop estimates, but a very high yield that could be overestimated in any case and especially with the bad weather seen in Arkansas and California so far this season. USDA also cut domestic demand estimates which should be rather stable on a year to year basis. The ending stocks levels were down sharply, but could be reduced even more if the production is less than forecast or the demand proves to be closer to last year in the US market. That is before the loss estimates are included in any projections.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather until precipitation returns by the middle of this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1118 and 1166 July. Support is at 1070, 1065, and 1052 July, with resistance at 1109, 1125, and 1130 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be fund buying. The funds have been short the market and are covering positions. Overall, the market does not want to move lower at this time, but could move higher if bad weather returns. The planting pace has been very rapid and emergence is being noted. Ideas of overall crop condition range from poor to good depending on the region and the source. The planting progress and overall weather situation in the Midwest remain the focus of the market, and some big storms were seen in western and northern areas yesterday. Showers could return to all areas by the end of the week. Emergence in the Midwest remains slow and will likely speed up now as temperatures have turned very warm. Farmers are ready to replant crops in cold or wet areas as needed, but so far the losses are still being determined. Ethanol production was 302 million gallons, up from last week and last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 368, 365, and 364 July, and resistance is at 372, 374, and 376 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 216 July. Support is at 233, 227, and 224 July, and resistance is at 237, 239, and 242 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed despite ideas of continued Chinese buying interest. Basis levels art the Gulf of Mexico were firm, implying new demand for export there. The market did try to rally overnight, but found some speculative and producer selling interest from the US and South America. Some South Americans are pricing against July Contracts now and this trend should increase in the next couple of weeks as some Contracts must be honored. However, there appears to be little selling interest in South America cash markets. The stronger US demand comes at the expense of the demand for export in South America as producers there remain reluctant sellers due to currency relationships. These factors have kept demand for US Soybeans much stronger than expected for this time of year as US prices are now as cheap or cheaper than those in South America. The cool and wet weather and the slow planting pace has helped support futures markets, but planting progress has been as strong as possible and is likely to increase rapidly as the Corn crop gets planted and farmers shift to Soybeans. Warmer temperatures are reported in the Midwest, although there is also precipitation in the forecast, especially in northern and western areas. All áreas could see some precipitation again late in the week and over the weekend. Farmers are making progress and will have a couple more days of planting weather before the precipitation returns.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 968, 963, and 958 July, and resistance is at 983, 989, and 1002 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 309.00 July, and resistance is at 317.00, 321.00, and 323.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3360 and 3500 July. Support is at 3260, 3220, and 3150 July, with resistance at 3340, 3420, and 3500 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed mostly a little lower. Only July was higher as nearby supplies available to the market remain tight. New crop months were a little lower on ideas of improving weather conditions. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt overall demand ideas. There remains little available in the cash market, and this fact is keeping prices relatively strong. Demand from crushers and exporters is moderate. Basis levels have been firm along with futures to encourage sales. Palm Oil was lower on speculate selling. Export demand is off to a strong start this month and has supported futures this week Ideas are that buying is strong for Ramadan. Traders noted good production potential, but demand has come back well from a few months ago. Chart trends remain up, and August made a new high for the move. .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 529.00, 536.00, and 549.00 July. Support is at 525.00, 521.00, and 517.00 July, with resistance at 529.00, 530.00, and 532.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2610, 2590, and 2560 August, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2700 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More in the northwest and in all áreas by the end of the week. Temperatures will be above normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 34 Jul 120 July 44 Jul 36 Jul 4-Jul
June 33 Jul 43 Jul 36 Jul
July 31-Jul 42 Jul 42 Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
May minus 26 July
June 61 Jul minus 26 July 50 July
July 70 Jul minus 25 July 45 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 17
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.11 up 1.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 542.70 up 2.60
2 Can 529.70 up 2.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 567.70 up 2.60
2 Can 554.70 up 2.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 185.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 180.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 707.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 637.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 615.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 712.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 685.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 642.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 620.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,910 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 295.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.3318)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 223,280 lots, or 8.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 3,803 3,809 3,803 3,809 3,755 3,806 51 4 60
Sep-17 3,804 3,828 3,755 3,771 3,792 3,783 -9 211,096 219,988
Nov-17 – – – 3,773 3,773 3,773 0 0 12
Jan-18 3,837 3,851 3,789 3,803 3,820 3,817 -3 11,888 27,818
Mar-18 – – – 3,876 3,879 3,876 -3 0 26
May-18 3,876 3,885 3,850 3,853 3,883 3,868 -15 286 1,210
Jul-18 – – – 3,881 3,896 3,881 -15 0 2
Sep-18 3,915 3,915 3,899 3,910 3,935 3,908 -27 6 16
Nov-18 – – – 3,945 3,945 3,945 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 688,318 lots, or 11.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 1,626 1,637 1,625 1,632 1,632 1,631 -1 46 1,166
Sep-17 1,639 1,643 1,632 1,639 1,637 1,637 0 587,848 1,582,938
Nov-17 1,666 1,666 1,666 1,666 1,673 1,666 -7 2 1,946
Jan-18 1,692 1,694 1,684 1,689 1,692 1,687 -5 97,958 568,360
Mar-18 1,687 1,699 1,684 1,687 1,690 1,689 -1 50 1,744
May-18 1,731 1,731 1,722 1,725 1,730 1,725 -5 2,414 11,160
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,347,766 lots, or 37.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 2,841 2,843 2,801 2,810 2,841 2,816 -25 114 1,306
Aug-17 2,816 2,816 2,781 2,783 2,817 2,800 -17 18 750
Sep-17 2,814 2,816 2,755 2,768 2,795 2,778 -17 1,232,404 2,403,338
Nov-17 2,793 2,793 2,791 2,792 2,830 2,792 -38 10 202
Dec-17 2,801 2,810 2,801 2,802 2,825 2,803 -22 36 328
Jan-18 2,823 2,834 2,777 2,794 2,814 2,797 -17 106,740 533,512
Mar-18 2,813 2,813 2,777 2,787 2,807 2,785 -22 52 162
May-18 2,776 2,778 2,738 2,751 2,760 2,751 -9 8,392 17,742
Palm Oil
Turnover: 534,996 lots, or 29.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-17 – – – 5,604 5,604 5,604 0 0 22
Jul-17 – – – 5,444 5,444 5,444 0 0 4
Aug-17 5,544 5,546 5,526 5,546 5,290 5,542 252 70 70
Sep-17 5,556 5,572 5,478 5,504 5,514 5,514 0 492,000 586,434
Oct-17 – – – 5,494 5,494 5,494 0 0 10
Nov-17 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 146
Dec-17 – – – 5,372 5,372 5,372 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,338 5,352 5,268 5,290 5,298 5,304 6 42,102 184,730
Feb-18 – – – 5,396 5,390 5,396 6 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,306 5,300 5,306 6 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,418 5,418 5,418 0 0 18
May-18 5,374 5,400 5,350 5,370 5,338 5,374 36 824 2,326
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 446,812 lots, or 26.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 6,006 6,006 5,980 5,982 6,082 5,994 -88 26 14
Aug-17 5,928 5,928 5,918 5,918 5,994 5,922 -72 4 54
Sep-17 6,058 6,066 5,984 5,994 6,018 6,018 0 401,006 803,190
Nov-17 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 20
Dec-17 – – – 6,190 6,190 6,190 0 0 8
Jan-18 6,228 6,234 6,152 6,164 6,186 6,184 -2 45,500 157,740
Mar-18 – – – 6,248 6,248 6,248 0 0 6
May-18 6,316 6,324 6,260 6,280 6,278 6,288 10 276 1,504
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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