Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 17
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May. 18, 2017 7 May 12, 2017

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported By Rail – May 17
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed May 17, 2017 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING APRIL 2017
————————————————————————
Apr-17 Mar-17 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 24 2,395 0 2,395
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 798
FLAXSEED 0 0 1,297 1,297
WHEAT DU 0 0 100 100
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 9 898 300 2,196
WHEAT HRW 0 0 1,198 3,394
MEXICO
CORN WHITE 73 7,285 6,886 18,163
CORN YELLOW 7,579 756,309 580,978 2,216,233
FLAXSEED 1 100 0 100
OATS 6 599 300 4,593
SORGHUM 507 50,594 28,440 95,999
SOYBEANS 1,344 134,118 110,866 533,575
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 4,690 12,574
WHEAT HRS 57 5,688 19,060 38,319
WHEAT HRW 1,034 103,184 119,153 474,317
WHEAT SRW 2 200 18,661 41,212
WHEAT SWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised
Year to Date is January
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Contact and Office Info
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower, with HRW futures once again the weakest class of Wheat. Futures are now testing some important support areas on the charts and these levels held yesterday. There is now no or minimal weather risk in prices as the harvest approaches. USDA showed production that was less than expected last week, especially in HRW areas of the Great Plains. Ideas are that the production could drop even more as USDA should not have accounted for all of the bad weather seen in the growing areas in the last couple of weeks, and the damage reports are starting to increase as the freeze damage becomes more apparent. The temperatures have turned warmer, but forecasts call for frequent periods of precipitation at a time when the crop really needs dry conditions. It is also very hit right now in the Great Plains, and this can stress an already troubled crop. There have been some disease reports coming to the surface in the Midwest because of all of the recent rain. Parts of eastern Europe and North Africa remain very dry. Some areas of the EU are also dry and have seen some freezing temperatures of their own, but are now seeing rains
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains again over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should mostly rains over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see some showers and rain through the week. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 420, 416, and 410 July, with resistance at 426, 431, and 438 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 421, 413, and 411 July, with resistance at 434, 438, and 444 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 538, 536, and 530 July, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 556 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed in consolidation trading. The crop progress report on Monday showed a little more planting got done, with the best progress in California and Missouri. California is very late due to bad weather this year. No condition ratings were posted, but crops are reported to be in marginal condition, especially in Arkansas. Gulf Coast crops are reported to be very good at this time. USDA showed reduced planted area in its new crop estimates, but a very high yield that could be overestimated in any case and especially with the bad weather seen in Arkansas and California so far this season. USDA also cut domestic demand estimates which should be rather stable on a year to year basis. The ending stocks levels were down sharply, but could be reduced even more if the production is less than forecast or the demand proves to be closer to last year in the US market. Planting is almost complete and initial emergence of the crop has been good in other areas of the US.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather until precipitation returns by the middle of this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1040, 1030, and 1019 July, with resistance at 1075, 1079, and 1084 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.36 9.01 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.86 9.46 0.00
Brokens 8.66 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed little changed as the market waits for news about the condition of the crop. The planting pace has been very rapid and emergence is being noted. Ideas of overall crop condition range from poor to good depending on the region and the source. The planting progress and overall weather situation in the Midwest remain the focus of the market, and it looks like a lot more Corn can get planted in the Midwest this week as the big rains look to stay to the west and north of the bigger growing areas. Only the northwest Midwest and pasts of the Great Plains should see too much rain. Showers could return to all areas by the end of the week. Emergence in the Midwest remains slow and will likely speed up now as temperatures have turned very warm. Farmers are ready to replant crops in cold or wet areas as needed, but so far the losses are still being determined. Corn remains a weather market as most traders focus on the Midwest conditions. Funds remain very short the market and could be forced to cover some of these positions if the bad weather continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 365, 364, and 361 July, and resistance is at 372, 374, and 376 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 216 July. Support is at 224, 220, and 215 July, and resistance is at 233, 237, and 239 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher. The best gains were seen in Soybeans on ideas of increased Chinese demand. China has report3ed to been the buyer of the last couple of export sales to unknown destinations and is said to be buying more. The stronger US demand comes at the expense of the demand for export in South America as producers there remain reluctant sellers due to currency relationships. These factors have kept demand for US Soybeans much stronger than expected for this time of year. The cool and wet weather and the slow planting pace has helped support futures markets, but planting progress has been as strong as possible and is likely to increase rapidly as the Corn crop gets planted and farmers shift to Soybeans. Warmer temperatures are expected in the Midwest this week, although there is also precipitation in the forecast. The rains should fall mainly in the northwest Midwest for now, although all areas could see some precipitation again late in the week and over the weekend. Farmers are making progress and will have a couple more days of planting weather before the precipitation returns.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 963, 958, and 953 July, and resistance is at 978, 983, and 989 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 309.00 July, and resistance is at 317.00, 321.00, and 323.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3360 and 3500 July. Support is at 3260, 3220, and 3150 July, with resistance at 3330, 3340, and 3420 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed higher despite a stronger Canadian Dollar as farmers are finally in the fields and planting crops. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt overall demand ideas, but the trade does not care mucho n ideas that stocks are tight in the Prairies. New crop months were firm as farmers work to get the crops planted. There remains little available in the cash market, and this fact is keeping prices relatively strong. Demand from crushers and exporters is moderate. Basis levels have been firming along with futures to encourage sales. Palm Oil was higher as export demand held firm through the middle of the month. Export demand is off to a strong start this month and has supported futures this week Ideas are that buying is strong for Ramadan. Traders noted good production potential, but demand has come back well from a few months ago. Chart trends remain up, and August made a new high for the move. .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 521.00, 517.00, and 515.00 July, with resistance at 529.00, 530.00, and 532.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2620 August. Support is at 2560, 2520, and 2480 August, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Dry for the next day or two, then rain returns by the middle of the week in the northwest and in all areas by the end of the week. Temperatures will be above normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 32 Jul 120 July 44 Jul 37 Jul 4-Jul
June 31-Jul 40 Jul 37 Jul
July 31-Jul 40 Jul 40 Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
May minus 25 July
June minus 25 July 50 July
July 70 Jul minus 25 July 45 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 16
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 518.31 dn 0.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 540.10 up 1.80
2 Can 527.10 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 565.10 up 1.80
2 Can 552.10 up 1.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 185.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 180.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 705.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 680.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 710.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 685.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 645.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 622.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 632.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 630.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,900 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 285.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.3233)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 214,566 lots, or 8.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 3,711 3,798 3,711 3,736 3,753 3,755 2 14 60
Sep-17 3,772 3,816 3,763 3,809 3,769 3,792 23 204,770 209,824
Nov-17 – – – 3,773 3,773 3,773 0 0 12
Jan-18 3,800 3,842 3,794 3,837 3,800 3,820 20 9,150 28,232
Mar-18 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,879 3,857 3,879 22 20 26
May-18 3,857 3,897 3,850 3,886 3,854 3,883 29 610 1,236
Jul-18 – – – 3,896 3,896 3,896 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,935 3,935 3,935 3,935 3,913 3,935 22 2 14
Nov-18 – – – 3,945 3,945 3,945 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 906,444 lots, or 14.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 1,623 1,636 1,623 1,629 1,624 1,632 8 34 1,168
Sep-17 1,632 1,643 1,629 1,643 1,629 1,637 8 754,538 1,629,886
Nov-17 1,667 1,676 1,667 1,674 1,665 1,673 8 46 1,946
Jan-18 1,688 1,698 1,686 1,695 1,682 1,692 10 146,834 582,526
Mar-18 1,688 1,697 1,687 1,691 1,678 1,690 12 142 1,742
May-18 1,726 1,738 1,725 1,731 1,721 1,730 9 4,850 10,490
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,240,396 lots, or 34.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 2,831 2,862 2,819 2,843 2,815 2,841 26 442 1,358
Aug-17 2,804 2,825 2,804 2,825 2,778 2,817 39 30 750
Sep-17 2,778 2,814 2,774 2,809 2,774 2,795 21 1,127,932 2,362,248
Nov-17 2,822 2,836 2,822 2,831 2,797 2,830 33 36 202
Dec-17 2,826 2,835 2,821 2,835 2,795 2,825 30 48 306
Jan-18 2,796 2,831 2,794 2,827 2,796 2,814 18 102,658 506,048
Mar-18 2,799 2,820 2,796 2,820 2,791 2,807 16 24 164
May-18 2,740 2,778 2,740 2,774 2,741 2,760 19 9,226 13,874
Palm Oil
Turnover: 707,954 lots, or 38.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-17 – – – 5,604 5,604 5,604 0 0 22
Jul-17 – – – 5,444 5,444 5,444 0 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,290 5,290 5,290 0 0 6
Sep-17 5,500 5,556 5,460 5,536 5,494 5,514 20 648,530 585,490
Oct-17 5,488 5,498 5,486 5,498 5,472 5,494 22 14 10
Nov-17 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 146
Dec-17 – – – 5,372 5,372 5,372 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,296 5,330 5,260 5,324 5,288 5,298 10 58,728 185,610
Feb-18 – – – 5,390 5,380 5,390 10 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,300 5,290 5,300 10 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,418 5,408 5,418 10 0 18
May-18 5,342 5,380 5,326 5,378 5,330 5,338 8 682 2,132
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 552,010 lots, or 33.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 6,082 6,082 6,082 6,082 6,050 6,082 32 2 14
Aug-17 5,994 5,994 5,994 5,994 5,962 5,994 32 2 58
Sep-17 6,026 6,060 5,976 6,048 6,030 6,018 -12 505,778 815,280
Nov-17 6,078 6,078 6,078 6,078 6,060 6,078 18 2 20
Dec-17 – – – 6,190 6,172 6,190 18 0 8
Jan-18 6,192 6,228 6,146 6,218 6,198 6,186 -12 45,752 151,906
Mar-18 6,248 6,248 6,248 6,248 6,212 6,248 36 2 6
May-18 6,292 6,326 6,250 6,318 6,288 6,278 -10 472 1,320
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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