Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 14-May 7-May 2016 Avg
Cotton Planted 33 21 38 37
Corn Planted 71 47 73 70
Corn Emerged 31 15 41 36
Soybeans Planted 32 14 34 32
Soybeans Emerged 8 9 9
Sorghum Planted 32 30 33 35
Rice Planted 83 76 86 81
Rice Emerged 73 65 75 65
Sugarbeets Planted 98 74 97 81
Peanuts Planted 43 25 43 39
Oats Planted 91 79 93 87
Oats Emerged 72 59 79 71
Winter Wheat Headed 63 50 66 57
Spring Wheat Planted 78 54 87 73
Spring Wheat Emerged 40 21 57 44
Barley Planted 78 53 88 79
Barley Emerged 42 26 65 50
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 5 12 32 43 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 11 32 43 10
Winter Wheat Last Year 1 7 30 51 11
Oats This Week 2 4 32 55 7
Oats Last Week 3 4 32 59 6
Oats Last Year 3 23 65 8
Pasture and Range This Week 2 8 28 50 12
Pasture and Range Last week 2 7 28 51 12
Pasture and Range Last Year 2 6 29 52 11
General Comments: Cotton was limit up in July and higher in the new crop months. July did not lock at limit up levels and eventually sold off a little bit, but still closed at very strong levels.. The charts show that July has moved to new contract highs. The market anticipates continued good demand for the current crop. Futures are finding Support from mills who sold basis levels but never covered these positions in futures. They are being squeezed now. USDA on Wednesday showed a sharp year on year increase in production. This increase should have been expected as planted area estimates have been much higher. Demand estimates showed stable trends, so ending stocks for the coming crop were high. Planting conditions remain mixed due to recent cold and wet weather. Warmer temperatures and more wet weather is expected this week. The overall planting pace was good last week, but the annual planting pace is still behind the five year average. Certified stocks have moved sharply higher in the last month as an indication of increased farm selling and somewhat reduced overall demand.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get more rain Wednesday and Saturday. Dry starting Sunday. Temperatures should will average near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 78.59 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 374,699 bales, from 353,694 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery for May and that total deliveries for the month are now 735 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 8250, 8220, and 8080 July, with resistance of 8630, 8720, and 8800 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower and price action remains weak. The daily chart are starting to show a down trend again. The crop is still small, but does not appear to be getting smaller as USDA showed a slight increase in Florida production and IBGE showed an increase in Brazil production in reports released Wednesday. Weak domestic demand is helping keep prices under pressure, as are the expectations of increased imports of FCOJ from Brazil. The Movement and Pack report shows that imports are higher this year. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing small fruit. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss as the state is in drought and there are no forecasts for rain for the next week. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is starting to wind down. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for May delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 135.00 July. Support is at 142.00, 139.00, and 136.00 May, with resistance at 148.00, 150.00, and 153.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on what appeared to be fund selling. The US Dollar was weaker against other currencies including the Real, but this did not Support prices as it did on Friday. Ideas of better world production were seen once again, and demand ideas remain very soft as most roasters are still not buying much in world cash markets. The market wants to talk about good production and ample supplies down the road as reasons to keep the selling pressure alive. The overall price action shows that both markets are still in a range trade as the market waits for the increased offer from Brazil to hit the market. The big shorts in New York are the commercials who apparently are finally closing short positions at least in part as they close positions on Coffee bought at higher prices. It feels as if some news is needed or increased offers in the cash market are needed to push prices lower. Differentials are stable.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.432 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.890 million bags, from 6.724 million last month. The ICO composite price is now 125.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get light showers early this week. Dry weather returns next week Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 665 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 128.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00 and 142.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1860 July. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1900 July, and resistance is at 2010, 2040, and 2070 July.
General Comments: New York and London both closed mostly higher in response to the weaker US Dollar. Only London August closed lower.. New York is holding a trading range, but London broke support from its trading range yesterday as demand for White Sugar is not real strong. Ideas are that world Sugar production will be higher as long as Brazil keeps the current percentages of Sugar and Ethanol production. Ideas are also that India and Thailand will have bigger crops this year after the failed monsoon cut Sugarcane production in both countries last year. The Indian weather Service expects a 96% normal monsoon this year and the government and producers hope for production to recover in a big way in the next production cycle. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much drier than normal in the Northeast, but there has been some rain. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a few showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 July, and resistance is at 1600, 1630, and 1650 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 420.00 August. Support is at 437.00, 434.00, and 431.00 August, and resistance is at 447.00, 454.00, and 458.00 August.
General Comments: Cocoa futures closed higher and made new highs for the move. Both New York and London gapped higher and indicated that the market is strong. The recovery has come as the West African main crop harvest has ended and the mid crop harvest has started That makes less supply available to the market, although supplies should still be big enough for any demand at this time. The recovery in demand has been weak so far, but demand is expected to continue to grow in the next few months. Traders look for demand to improve as lower prices filter down to the retail level, but chocolate prices have been holding strong at stores. The fundamentals remain mostly bearish, but are now part of the price. Production is improved this year and demand has not improved as much as hoped, according to the recent EU grind data.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.560 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts of Cocoa were delivered against May futures, and that total deliveries for the month are 591 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2150 July. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1940 July, with resistance at 2070, 2100, and 2130 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1`710 Juy. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1520 July, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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