Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE May May. 17, 2017 11 May 11, 2017

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 15
Source: USDA
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 11, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/11/2017 05/04/2017 05/12/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 168 240 220 35,453 31,439
CORN 1,395,853 843,240 1,133,462 40,721,946 26,468,018
FLAXSEED 488 0 342 32,076 14,425
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 300 14,135 4,045
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 67,336 197,434 90,003 4,473,858 6,975,037
SOYBEANS 281,465 371,255 211,056 50,096,298 43,276,923
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 8
WHEAT 691,226 658,182 369,378 25,750,466 19,273,237
Total 2,436,536 2,070,351 1,804,761 121,124,232 96,043,132
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 14-May 7-May 2016 Avg
Cotton Planted 33 21 38 37
Corn Planted 71 47 73 70
Corn Emerged 31 15 41 36
Soybeans Planted 32 14 34 32
Soybeans Emerged 8 9 9
Sorghum Planted 32 30 33 35
Rice Planted 83 76 86 81
Rice Emerged 73 65 75 65
Sugarbeets Planted 98 74 97 81
Peanuts Planted 43 25 43 39
Oats Planted 91 79 93 87
Oats Emerged 72 59 79 71
Winter Wheat Headed 63 50 66 57
Spring Wheat Planted 78 54 87 73
Spring Wheat Emerged 40 21 57 44
Barley Planted 78 53 88 79
Barley Emerged 42 26 65 50

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 5 12 32 43 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 11 32 43 10
Winter Wheat Last Year 1 7 30 51 11
Oats This Week 2 4 32 55 7
Oats Last Week 3 4 32 59 6
Oats Last Year 3 23 65 8
Pasture and Range This Week 2 8 28 50 12
Pasture and Range Last week 2 7 28 51 12
Pasture and Range Last Year 2 6 29 52 11

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower, with HRW futures closing with double digit losses. The move caught many analysts by surprise as reports over the weekend indicated that the damage to crops in the Great Plains could be worse than originally seen. There is now no or minimal weather risk in prices as the harvest approaches. USDA showed production that was less than expected last week, especially in HRW areas of the Great Plains. Ideas are that the production could drop even more as USDA should not have accounted for all of the bad weather seen in the growing areas in the last couple of weeks, and the damage reports are starting to increase as the freeze damage becomes more apparent. The temperatures have turned warmer, but forecasts call for frequent periods of precipitation at a time when the crop really needs dry conditions. There have been some disease reports coming to the surface in the Midwest because of all of the recent rain. Parts of eastern Europe and North Africa remain very dry. Some areas of the EU are also dry and have seen some freezing temperatures of their own. US and world production estimates should be lower in the next few months.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains again over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should mostly rains over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see some showers and rain through the week. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 420, 416, and 410 July, with resistance at 431, 438, and 440 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 424, 421, and 413 July, with resistance at 438, 444, and 451 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 538, 536, and 530 July, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 556 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher and gained back all of the losses from Friday, but did not extend past that level. Support came from hopes that Iraq will buy US Rice as well as the bad crop conditions in the Delta and California. Iraq bought 50,000 tons of Wheat yesterday and is negotiating to buy up to 100,000 tons of US Rice. It must show it can pay, but there are hopes for a deal as Iraq is concentrating on US sellers. The crop progress report showed a little more planting got done, with the best progress in California and Missouri. California is very late due to bad weather this year. No condition ratings were posted, but crops are reported to be in marginal condition, especially in Arkansas. Gulf Coast crops are reported to be very good at this time. USDA showed reduced planted area in its new crop estimates, but a very high yield that could be overestimated in any case and especially with the bad weather seen in Arkansas and California so far this season. USDA also cut domestic demand estimates which should be rather stable on a year to year basis. The ending stocks levels were down sharply, but could be reduced even more if the production is less than forecast or the demand proves to be closer to last year in the US market. Planting is almost complete and initial emergence of the crop has been good in other areas of the US, but California and Arkansas will continue to be the focus of the futures market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather until precipitation returns by the middle of this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1040, 1030, and 1019 July, with resistance at 1075, 1079, and 1084 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas of rapid planting progress amid improved planting conditions. The market got what it wanted after the close when USDA showed that planting progress was indeed very strong. The planting progress and overall weather situation in the Midwest overshadowed a very strong export inspections report.. The market is watching planting and initial growth, and both categories moved ahead more than had been expected by us. However, there are chances for showers in most areas the rest of the week, so fieldwork could turn slower again. Emergence in the Midwest remains slow and will likely remain slow due to cool soil temperatures. Farmers are ready to replant crops in cold or wet áreas as needed, but so far the losses are still being determined. Corn remains a weather market as most traders focus on the Midwest conditions. Funds remain very short the market and could be forced to cover some of these positions if the bad weather continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 365, 364, and 361 July, and resistance is at 372, 374, and 376 July. Trends in Oats are down with objctives of 228 and 216 July. Support is at 228, 224, and 220 July, and resistance is at 233, 237, and 239 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed slightly higher and Soybean Meal closed mixed on US Dollar weakness. Soybean Oil moved higher in sympathy with gains in Palm Oil futures. The cool and wet weather and the slow planting pace has helped support futures markets, but planting progress has been as strong as possible and above our expectations. Farmers were able to make some very good progress in western areas where there has been less rain, and farmers in the east and south got more planted than many had expected. Warmer temperatures are expected in the Midwest this week, although there is also precipitation in the forecast. Farmers are making progress and will have a couple more days of planting weather before the precipitation returns. The export inspections report was not strong, but it was strong enough to Support markets here as this is normally a very slow demand time of year. Most of the Business should be going to South America, but the US is holding its own in world markets.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 958, 953, and 950 July, and resistance is at 973, 978, and 983 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 309.00 July, and resistance is at 317.00, 321.00, and 323.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3360 and 3500 July. Support is at 3260, 3220, and 3150 July, with resistance at 3330, 3340, and 3420 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed a little lower in July as farmers are finally in the fields and planting crops. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt overall demand ideas. New crop months were firm The weather forecasts call for some rains to appear in Alberta, but the Eastern Prairies should stay dry. There remains Little available in the cash market, and this fact is keeping prices relatively strong. Demand from crushers and exporters is moderate. Basis levels have been firming along with futures to encourage sales. Palm Oil was slightly higher as export demand held firm through the middle of the month. Export demand is off to a strong start this month and has supported futures this week The MPOB report as considered negative, but really did not affect the price action. Traders noted good production due to good weather and slightly less demand than expected for last month. Chart trends remain up, and July made a new high for the move. .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 514.00 July, with resistance at 529.00, 530.00, and 532.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2780 July. Support is at 2640, 2620, and 2580 July, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2780 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Dry for the next day or two, then rain returns by the middle of the week. Temperatures will be above normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 31-Jul 120 July 42 Jul 34 Jul 4-Jul
June 30-Jul 43 Jul 36 Jul
July 30-Jul 40 Jul 37 Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
May minus 23 July
June 55 July minus 24 July 54 July
July 62 Jul minus 24 July 42 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 15
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 518.91 up 4.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 538.30 dn 0.60
2 Can 525.30 dn 0.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 563.30 dn 0.60
2 Can 550.30 dn 0.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 185.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 180.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 697.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 672.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 637.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 615.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 675.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 640.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 630.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 627.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,880 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 278.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3203)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 153,154 lots, or 5.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 3,722 3,784 3,722 3,784 3,791 3,753 -38 8 62
Sep-17 3,781 3,789 3,753 3,767 3,780 3,769 -11 146,526 220,238
Nov-17 3,833 3,833 3,752 3,774 3,807 3,773 -34 12 12
Jan-18 3,810 3,820 3,786 3,798 3,809 3,800 -9 5,112 29,336
Mar-18 – – – 3,857 3,857 3,857 0 0 10
May-18 3,876 3,890 3,841 3,851 3,884 3,854 -30 1,494 1,246
Jul-18 – – – 3,896 3,896 3,896 0 0 2
Sep-18 3,913 3,913 3,913 3,913 3,945 3,913 -32 2 16
Nov-18 – – – 3,945 3,945 3,945 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 779,986 lots, or 12.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 1,626 1,628 1,620 1,628 1,639 1,624 -15 50 1,176
Sep-17 1,626 1,635 1,624 1,629 1,645 1,629 -16 678,022 1,675,270
Nov-17 1,667 1,668 1,664 1,666 1,682 1,665 -17 94 1,970
Jan-18 1,676 1,687 1,672 1,685 1,690 1,682 -8 90,652 564,872
Mar-18 1,681 1,683 1,675 1,681 1,690 1,678 -12 192 1,744
May-18 1,702 1,726 1,702 1,724 1,690 1,721 31 10,976 7,602
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,299,526 lots, or 36.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 2,831 2,834 2,801 2,814 2,828 2,815 -13 396 1,278
Aug-17 2,802 2,802 2,772 2,785 2,802 2,778 -24 118 754
Sep-17 2,791 2,796 2,758 2,772 2,787 2,774 -13 1,151,504 2,509,790
Nov-17 2,815 2,815 2,785 2,792 2,804 2,797 -7 6 176
Dec-17 2,795 2,795 2,795 2,795 2,837 2,795 -42 2 318
Jan-18 2,812 2,818 2,779 2,791 2,809 2,796 -13 133,914 512,654
Mar-18 2,804 2,820 2,772 2,773 2,808 2,791 -17 76 162
May-18 2,751 2,771 2,728 2,738 2,808 2,741 -67 13,510 10,938
Palm Oil
Turnover: 572,502 lots, or 31.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-17 – – – 5,604 5,604 5,604 0 0 22
Jul-17 – – – 5,444 5,444 5,444 0 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,290 5,290 5,290 0 0 6
Sep-17 5,500 5,528 5,462 5,494 5,488 5,494 6 513,082 582,738
Oct-17 5,478 5,478 5,462 5,462 5,430 5,472 42 12 16
Nov-17 – – – 5,462 5,462 5,462 0 0 146
Dec-17 – – – 5,372 5,332 5,372 40 0 2
Jan-18 5,284 5,308 5,266 5,288 5,268 5,288 20 57,036 183,406
Feb-18 – – – 5,380 5,360 5,380 20 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,290 5,270 5,290 20 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,408 5,408 5,408 0 0 18
May-18 5,316 5,350 5,310 5,340 5,408 5,330 -78 2,372 1,808
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 552,474 lots, or 33.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-17 6,094 6,094 6,012 6,078 5,964 6,050 86 18 14
Aug-17 5,962 5,962 5,962 5,962 5,908 5,962 54 2 58
Sep-17 6,014 6,052 6,010 6,024 5,982 6,030 48 495,214 828,300
Nov-17 – – – 6,060 6,060 6,060 0 0 18
Dec-17 – – – 6,172 6,124 6,172 48 0 8
Jan-18 6,170 6,220 6,170 6,192 6,148 6,198 50 55,780 143,932
Mar-18 – – – 6,212 6,162 6,212 50 0 4
May-18 6,300 6,308 6,258 6,288 6,162 6,288 126 1,460 1,084
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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