Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was limit up in July and higher in the new crop months. The limits will be expanded to 500 points today and margin requirements will also be increased. The charts show that July has moved to new contract highs. The weekly export sales report was not strong, but strong enough to show continued good overall demand for US Cotton, so the market anticipates continued good demand for the current crop. USDA on Wednesday showed a sharp year on year increase in production. This increase should have been expected as planted area estimates have been much higher. Demand estimates showed stable trends, so ending stocks for the coming crop were high. Planting conditions remain mixed due to recent cold and wet weather. Warmer temperatures and more wet weather is expected this week. The US mills still have to fix July purchases and the need for them to fix will keep some support under July futures even after this rally blows off. The mills did not price sales from producers at cheaper levels and now are forced to pay higher prices. Certified stocks have moved sharply higher in the last month as an indication of increased farm selling and somewhat reduced overall demand.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get more rain Friday and Saturday, with more heavy rain possible. Dry starting Sunday. Temperatures should will average below normal today, then trend to near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal this weekend. The USDA average price is now 78.59 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 353,694 bales, from 320,132 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery for May and that total deliveries for the month are now 735 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 8080, 8020, and 7970 July, with resistance of 8320, 8440, and 8560 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 09, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 296,974
: Positions :
: 115,455 19,245 47,084 41,338 207,844 74,237 4,746 278,113 278,918: 18,861 18,056
: Changes from: May 2, 2017 (Change in open interest: -2,704) :
: -3,391 -796 -1,563 1,111 -2,734 835 785 -3,008 -4,309: 304 1,605
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.9 6.5 15.9 13.9 70.0 25.0 1.6 93.6 93.9: 6.4 6.1
: Total Traders: 325 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 78 86 55 67 32 12 268 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly higher again on Friday, but overfall the market action has not been strong. The selling from increased Brazil and Florida production estimates could not be sustained yesterday as the total production remains low. The crop is still small, but does not appear to be getting smaller as USDA showed a slight increase in Florida production and IBGE showed an increase in Brazil production in reports released Wednesday. Weak domestic demand is helping keep prices under pressure, as are the expectations of increased imports of FCOJ from Brazil. The Movement and Pack report shows that imports are higher this year. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing small fruit. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss as the state is in drought and there are no forecasts for rain for the next week. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is starting to wind down. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for May delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 135.00 July. Support is at 142.00, 139.00, and 136.00 May, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 155.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 9, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,267 :
: Positions :
: 5,088 7,572 1,042 0 37 1,427 1,355 51 1,097 127 1,539 :
: Changes from: May 2, 2017 :
: 151 -411 16 0 15 -363 316 -1 -161 -36 356 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 41.5 61.7 8.5 0.0 0.3 11.6 11.0 0.4 8.9 1.0 12.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 19 11 5 0 . 8 7 . 10 9 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – May 12
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 5/6/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/6/2017 5/7/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 200.48 278.22 -27.9%
Retail/Institutional 8.07 7.37 9.5%
Total 208.55 285.60 -27.0%
Pack
Bulk 5.83 5.29 10.3%
Retail/Institutional 1.54 1.81 -14.9%
Total Pack 7.37 7.10 3.9%
Reprocessed -3.59 -3.47 -3.3%
Pack from Fruit 3.79 3.63 4.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.04 0.18 -100+%
Imports – Foreign 7.01 4.62 51.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.06 0.67 -90.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – 0.03 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.55 – 100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.01 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 210.31 285.56 -26.4%
Retail/Institutional 9.61 9.18 4.7%
Total 219.92 294.74 -25.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.69 4.59 2.3%
Exports 0.60 0.31 95.9%
Total (Bulk) 5.30 4.90 8.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.59 1.26 26.9%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.59 1.26 26.9%
Total Movement 6.89 6.15 12.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 205.01 280.66 -27.0%
Retail/Institutional 8.02 7.93 1.2%
Ending Inventory 213.03 288.59 -26.2%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
6-May-17 7-May-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Pack
Bulk 126.14 153.21 -17.7%
Retail/Institutional 45.25 50.30 -10.0%
Total Pack 171.38 203.51 -15.8%
Reprocessed -104.04 -114.54 9.2%
Pack from Fruit 67.35 88.97 -24.3%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -3.31 -1.09 -100+%
Imports – Foreign 159.71 130.71 22.2%
Domestic Receipts 2.88 9.60 -70.0%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.73 0.16 100+%
from Non-Reporting Entity 2.56 5.18 -50.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.39 1.68 -76.5%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 397.30 466.34 -14.8%
Retail/Institutional 52.03 58.12 -10.5%
Total 449.34 524.46 -14.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 139.60 155.56 -10.3%
Domestic 52.69 30.12 75.0%
Exports 192.29 185.68 3.6%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 44.01 50.19 -12.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 44.01 50.19 -12.3%
Total Movement 236.30 235.87 0.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 205.01 280.66 -27.0%
Retail/Institutional 8.02 7.93 1.2%
Ending Inventory 213.03 288.59 -26.2%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on what appeared to be fund selling. Ideas of better world production were seen after IBGE raised its Brazil production estimates last week, and demand ideas remain very soft as most roasters are still not buying much in world cash markets. Very low grade coffee is seeing consistent, but light volume, demand, and some lots of specialty Coffee are moving, but that is about all the demand that is appearing now. The market wants to talk about good production and ample supplies down the road as reasons to keep the selling pressure alive. The overall price action shows that both markets are still in a range trade as thhe market waits for the increased offer from Brazil to hit the market. However, the softer US Dollar and higher South American currencies keep offers into the world market small. The big shorts in New York are the commercials who apparently are finally closing short positions at least in part as they close positions on Coffee bought at higher prices. Differentials are stable.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.430 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 126.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get light showers early this week. Dry weather returns next week Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 665 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 128.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00 and 142.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1960, and 1940 July, and resistance is at 2010, 2040, and 2070 July.

DJ Tanzania March Coffee Export Sales Rise on Year as Volume Falls
By George Mwangi
Special to DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Tanzania’s coffee export volume fell 7.3% to 5,100 tons in March from the same month a year earlier, the Bank of Tanzania said.
The value of Tanzanian overseas coffee sales rose 6.6% to $16.1 million on the year as reduced volumes pushed up the unit price 16% to $3,173 a ton, the bank said Monday in its monthly economic review for April, citing provisional data from the Tanzania Revenue Authority.
Global prices for coffee increased in the year on strong demand, the bank said.
Although direct sales are permitted, almost all of Tanzania’s coffee beans are sold at a weekly auction run by the Tanzania Coffee Board. Tanzanian arabica auctions use New York ICE futures prices as their benchmark, while robusta prices follow the London-traded contract on ICE.
In the season May 2016 to April 2017, Tanzania’s production of arabica and robusta coffee is expected to have dropped 20%, reflecting unfavorable weather and the natural biennial arabica cycle, in which a bumper harvest is followed by a smaller one, according to Primus Kimaryo, acting director-general of the Tanzania Coffee Board.
Tanzania–like most other East African coffee-growing nations–exports nearly all of its beans.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 09, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 246,535
: Positions :
: 40,077 50,866 63,251 88,434 112,790 43,803 10,131 235,564 237,038: 10,971 9,497
: Changes from: May 2, 2017 (Change in open interest: 496) :
: 929 -936 1,569 -910 2,265 -638 -2,182 949 716: -453 -220
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 20.6 25.7 35.9 45.7 17.8 4.1 95.5 96.1: 4.5 3.9
: Total Traders: 444 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 127 131 138 131 119 26 11 356 340:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/09/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
186,548 89,761 103,737 9,404 15,337 3,497
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.1% 55.6% 5.0% 8.2% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 56 47 16 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
35,037 10,573 24,870 450 4,308 19,099
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.8% 5.7% 13.3% 0.2% 2.3% 10.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 22 21 8 8 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,431 5,127
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.4% 2.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower in response to the latest UNICA data. UNICA in Brazil showed that the Sugarcane harvest is off to a slow start but that the percentage of cane crushed to make Sugar is higher than last year. Ideas are that world Sugar production will be higher as long as Brazil keeps the current percentages of Sugar and Ethanol production. Ideas are also that India and Thailand will have bigger crops this year after the failed monsoon cut Sugarcane production in both countries last year. The Indian weather Service expects a 96% normal monsoon this year and the government and producers hope for production to recover in a big way in the next production cycle. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much drier than normal in the Northeast, but there has been some rain. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get a few showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 July, and resistance is at 1590, 1630, and 1650 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 440.00, 437.00, and 434.00 August, and resistance is at 454.00, 458.00, and 463.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 09, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 937,584
: Positions :
: 149,335 165,935 200,182 308,969 467,210 208,781 24,300 867,267 857,626: 70,317 79,958
: Changes from: May 2, 2017 (Change in open interest: 24,856) :
: 4,814 17,828 14,302 6,619 -6,289 -5,437 -1,516 20,299 24,326: 4,557 530
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.9 17.7 21.4 33.0 49.8 22.3 2.6 92.5 91.5: 7.5 8.5
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 60 75 74 68 22 13 202 192:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/09/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
86,635 44,404 57,644 10,891 8,031 2,371
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.3% 66.5% 12.6% 9.3% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
125 44 54 13 3 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,172 8,112 2,953 715 1,188 1,663
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.1% 9.4% 3.4% 0.8% 1.4% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 21 9 1 4 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,465 4,672
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 5.4%

COCOA
General Comments: Cocoa futures closed higher and posted a very positive performance for the week. The recovery has come as the West African main crop harvest has ended and the mid crop harvest has started That makes less supply available to the market, although supplies should still be big enough for any demand at this time. The recovery in demand has been weak so far, but demand is expected to continue to grow in the next few months. Traders look for demand to improve as lower prices filter down to the retail level, but chocolate prices have been holding strong at stores. The fundamentals remain mostly bearish, but are now part of the price. Production is improved this year and demand has not improved as much as hoped, according to the recent EU grind data.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.569 million bags. ICE said that 21 contracts of Cocoa were delivered against May futures, and that total deliveries for the month are 591 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2030 and 2150 July. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1790 July, with resistance at 1990, 2050, and 2070 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1590 and 1710 July. Support is at 1490, 1450, and 1410 July, with resistance at 1570, 1600, and 1630 July.

DJ Rains Boost Crop Prospects Across East Africa — Market Talk
0749 GMT – Late season rains are intensifying across East Africa, aiding crop recovery in the drought-affected region, says Famine Early Warning Systems Network, or Fewsnet. Improved rains in late April and early May have boosted cropping prospects across agricultural heartlands of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northern Tanzania. Fewsnet however notes that flooding has already damaged crops around Kenya and may affect some parts of Ethiopia, Africa’s No.1 coffee grower. The rains are relief for the region which produces more coffee beans than any other country in Africa, in addition to key crops such as cotton, cocoa, cereals and grains. The U.S-funded research group says the rains are “expected to generally reduce moisture stress that had negatively affected cropping conditions” (Nicholas.Bariyo@wsj.com ; @Nicholasbariyo)

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – May 12
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for May 12, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 355 2,370.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 245 2,260.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 200 2,215.00
Ecuador 120 2,135.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 178 2,192.50
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.54 5,118.10
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.84 1,700.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 09, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 343,682
: Positions :
: 52,590 102,434 75,466 148,284 126,386 46,910 26,867 323,250 331,153: 20,432 12,529
: Changes from: May 2, 2017 (Change in open interest: -8,434) :
: -2,181 -2,784 368 -4,816 -5,626 509 -479 -6,120 -8,521: -2,314 88
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 29.8 22.0 43.1 36.8 13.6 7.8 94.1 96.4: 5.9 3.6
: Total Traders: 281 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 90 86 50 40 24 9 219 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/09/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
353,370 200,389 197,259 43,995 24,658 24,733
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.7% 55.8% 12.5% 7.0% 7.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 46 41 15 11 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,182 34,962 33,955 1,908 797 31,944
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.7% 9.9% 9.6% 0.5% 0.2% 9.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 31 22 10 8 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,264 5,062
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.4%

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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