Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

USDA Report: Summary For U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Wednesday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA 2016
Corn 14,065 14,204 13,975-15,148 15,148
Soybean 4,255 4,246 4,099-4,342 4,307
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2016-17 Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,295 2,327 2,269-2,500 2,320
Soybeans 435 439 417-466 445
Wheat 1,159 1,162 1,130-1,200 1,159
2017-18 Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 2,110 2,111 1,835-2,400
Soybeans 480 572 458-759
Wheat 914 974 863-1,317
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17 Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 223.9 223.7 221.6-228.8 223.0
Soybeans 90.1 87.8 86.1-89.0 87.4
Wheat 255.4 252.2 250.7-253.2 252.3
2017-18 Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 195.3 208.8 190.7-227.0
Soybeans 88.8 87.4 82.5-94.0
Wheat 258.3 244.4 238.0-254.4
***
2017-18 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Wednesday’s Average Range
Estimate
All Winter 1,246 1,328 1,200-1,617
Hard Red Winter 738 795 686-1,047
Soft Red Winter 297 309 260-335
White Winter 212 224 194-263
***
2016-17 Brazil Production (million metric tons)
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 96.0 94.3 93.0-95.9 93.5
Soybeans 111.6 111.3 110.5-112.0 111.0
2016-17 Argentina Production (million metric tons)
Wednesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA April
Corn 40.0 38.5 37.0-39.0 38.5
Soybeans 57.0 56.1 55.0-57.0 56.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – May 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 480 435 197 :149.56 144.60 132.22 344.68 348.04 313.05
Brazil na na : 63.50 61.90 54.38 107.00 111.60 96.50
Argentina na na : 9.00 9.00 9.92 57.00 57.00 56.80
China na na : 0.15 0.15 0.11 13.80 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 2,232 2,062 1,687 : 12.01 11.65 11.69 56.20 54.29 51.62
Corn 2,110 2,295 1,737 :151.91 158.58 119.95 1,033.66 1,065.11 968.06
China na na : 0.02 0.02 0.00 215.00 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na : 28.50 27.50 21.70 40.00 40.00 29.00
S. Africa na na : 1.70 2.00 0.80 12.50 15.30 8.21
Cotton(a) 5.00 3.20 3.80 : 37.63 36.96 35.30 113.22 105.88 96.76
All Wheat 914 1,159 976 :178.35 179.74 172.85 737.83 753.09 737.00
China na na : 0.80 0.80 0.73 131.00 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na : 31.00 27.00 34.69 151.00 145.47 160.48
Canada na na : 22.00 20.00 22.13 28.35 31.70 27.59
Argentina na na : 11.00 10.20 9.60 17.00 16.00 11.30
Australia na na : 19.00 24.00 16.12 25.00 35.00 24.17
Russia na na : 29.00 28.00 25.54 67.00 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na : 14.50 17.30 17.43 25.00 26.80 27.27
Sorghum 24 48 37 : na na na
Barley 76 95 102 : na na na
Oats 41 46 57 : na na na
Rice 38.1 48.1 46.5 : 42.17 41.42 40.52 481.30 481.54 471.83

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed s Sharp year on year increase in production. This increase should have been expected as planted area estimates have been much higher. Demand estimates showed stable trends, so ending stocks for the coming crop were high at 5.0 million bales. USDA did increase export demand for the current crop this month and cut ending stocks estimates, but this had been generally expected. The charts give ideas that the trends have turned down for a good correction move. Planting conditions remain mixed due to recent cold and wet weather. Texas is still too cold for best crop development. Forecasts now call for drier and warmer weather to return this weekend. The US mills still have to fix July purchases and the need for them to fix will keep some Support under July futures. The mills did not price sales from producers at cheaper levels and now are forced to pay higher prices. Strong export demand has supported nearby futures until recently. Demand has faded on the export side for the last couple of weeks and this is one reason for selling to develop in old crop months in recent days. More selling is possible if the funds continue to liquidate positions and if export demand does not move higher again. Certified stocks have moved sharply higher in the last month as an indication of increased farm selling and reduced overall demand.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get more rain Friday and Saturday, with more heavy rain possible. Dry starting Sunday. Temperatures should will average below normal today, then trend to near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal this weekend. The USDA average price is now 73.24 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 310,768 bales, from 310,933 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery for May and that total deliveries for the month are now 735 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 160,600 bales this year and 146,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,300 bales this year and 13,500 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7570 and 7370 July. Support is at 7610, 7540, and 7450 July, with resistance of 7710, 7790, and 7830 July.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – May 10
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
========================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
Apr May 10 Apr May 10
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.07 10.07 (NA) 12.23 *
Harvested 9.52 9.51 (NA) 11.38 *
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 869 867 (NA) 810 *
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.80 3.80 (NA) 3.20
Production 17.23 17.17 (NA) 19.20
Imports 0.01 0.01 (NA) 0.01
Supply, total 21.04 20.98 (NA) 22.41
Domestic use 3.30 3.30 (NA) 3.40
Exports 14.00 14.50 (NA) 14.00
Use, total 17.30 17.80 (NA) 17.40
Unaccounted 0.04 -0.02 (NA) 0.01
Ending stocks 3.70 3.20 (NA) 5.00
Avg. farm price 67.00 – 69.00 69.00 (NA) 54.00 – 74.00
=========================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – May 10
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2017/18 (Projected)
World
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 89.52 113.22 37.63 115.75 37.63 -0.15 87.14
United States
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 3.20 19.20 0.01 3.40 14.00 0.01 5.00
Total foreign
Apr (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
May 86.32 94.02 37.62 112.35 23.63 -0.16 82.14
=============================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – 2
World Cotton Supply and Use (continued)
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2016/17 (Estimated)
World 97.14 105.88 36.49 113.20 36.96 -0.17 89.52
United States 3.80 17.17 0.01 3.30 14.50 -0.02 3.20
Total Foreign 93.34 88.71 36.48 109.90 22.46 -0.15 86.32
=============================================================================

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower in reaction first to higher production estimates from Brazil and later from USDA. USDA increased Florida production by 1.0million boxes. The crop is still small, but does not appear to be getting smaller. Weak domestic demand is also helping keep prices under pressure. The latest Nielsen report once again highlighted the weak domestic demand that remains very low overall. Reports of imports from Brazil that are being reflected in the Florida Movement and Pack report also have weighed on prices as supplies overall have been more than enough for the demand. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing small fruit. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss as the state is in drought and there are no forecasts for rain for the next week. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and will start to wind down at this time. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures, Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for May delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 135.00 July. Support is at 142.00, 139.00, and 136.00 May, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 155.00 May.

Brazil 2017-18 Orange Crop Seen Rising 49% Y/y: Fundecitrus
2017-05-10 13:29:47.3 GMT
By Fabiana Batista
(Bloomberg) — Output probably will jump to 364.47m boxes
from 245.3m in 2016-17 amid favorable weather, Lourival Carmo
Monaco, president of industry foundation Fundecitrus, says in
video conference to announce group’s first estimate.
* In 2015-16, output was 300.65m boxes
* NOTE: Season lasts from May to April; box weigh 90 lbs, or
41 kilos

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits – May 10
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and
United States, Forecasted May 1, 2017
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
=========================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized Production
Boxes/1 Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ——————————————————–
2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17
===============================================================================
—— 1,000 Boxes 2/ —– —– 1,000 Tons ——
===============================================================================
Oranges
California, all 3/ 58,500 51,000 2,340 2,040
Early, mid, and Navel 4/ 47,200 43,000 1,888 1,720
Valencia 11,300 8,000 452 320
Florida, all 81,700 68,000 3,677 3,060
Early, mid, and Navel 4/ 36,100 33,000 1,625 1,485
Valencia 45,600 35,000 2,052 1,575
Texas, all 3/ 1,691 1,370 71 59
Early, mid, and Navel 4/ 1,351 1,050 57 45
Valencia 340 320 14 14
United States, all 141,891 120,370 6,088 5,159
Early, mid, and Navel 4/ 84,651 77,050 3,570 3,250
Valencia 57,240 43,320 2,518 1,909
Grapefruit
California 3/ 3,800 3,800 152 152
Florida, all 10,800 7,800 459 332
Red 8,310 6,300 353 268
White 2,490 1,500 106 64
Texas 3/ 4,800 4,700 192 188
United States 19,400 16,300 803 672
Tangerines and mandarins 5/
California 3/ 21,600 22,000 864 880
Florida 6/ 1,415 1,630 67 77
United States 23,015 23,630 931 957
Lemons 3/
Arizona 1,750 1,700 70 68
California 20,900 19,000 836 760
United States 22,650 20,700 906 828
Tangelos 7/
Florida 390 (NA) 18 (NA)
==============================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; in
California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80,
Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.
2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. For 2015-2016 included small
quantities of Temples in Florida.
Beginning in 2016-2017 Temples included in tangerines and mandarins.
5/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
6/ Small quantities of Temples in Florida.
7/ Beginning in 2016-2017, tangelos are included in tangerines and mandarins
for Florida.
===============================================================================

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower. New York found some Support when Cecafe announced that exports last month were 2.1 million bags, down from last year. Some demand for specialty coffee and some fill in lots started to appear yesterday. Very low grade coffee is seeing consistent, but light volume, demand. There has not been much demand news otherwise, and the market wants to talk about good production and ample supplies down the road as reasons to keep the selling pressure alive. The overall price action is still considered positive and implies that bigger rally attempts are possible in the short term. The big shorts in New York are the commercials who apparently are finally closing short positions at least in part as they close positions on Coffee bought at higher prices. Differentials are stable.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.420 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 127.60 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week and light showers this weekend. Dry weather returns next week Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 665 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 128.00 July, and resistance is at 138.00, 140.00 and 142.00 July. Trends in London are mixed up with objectives of 2055 and 2145 July. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1960 July, and resistance is at 2040, 2070, and 2110 July.

IBGE Revises Brazil Coffee Crop Estimate Up 1.7 Percent
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In their latest survey, Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has raised their estimate for Brazil’s 2017-2018 coffee crop to 46.4 million 60-kg bags, up 1.7% from the previous estimate. Arabica production is now pegged at 36.7 million 60-kg bags, up 1.4% from the previous estimate. Robusta production is forecast at 9.7 million 60-kg bags, 2.8% higher than the previous estimate.
The data was influenced by increases in estimates of production of Arabica coffee in São Paulo and Robusta production in Rondônia. In all, Sao Paulo should produce 3.9 million 60-kg bags of Arabica Rondonia should produce 2.1 million 60-kg bags of Robusta.
Alexis Rrubinstein

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher on follow through speculative buying. The buying cameo n ideas that futures are trying to force a bottom at current price levels. Ideas of bigger production in the coming crop year continue. Kingman representatives told a Sugar Week audience that world production could increase by 6.6% to 187.7 million tons, about 3.138 million tons above estimated demand. Many traders appear to agree with the general trend of higher production and stagnant demand. There are still some short term demand areas to get covered before the bigger production hits the market. The EU has short stocks as does India, and prices have been firm in both areas. Neither region has done much about importing The Indian weather Service expects a 96% normal monsoon this year and the government and producers hope for production to recover in a big way in the next production cycle. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much dryer than normal in the Northeast, but there has been some rain. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather, although a few showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 July, and resistance is at 1590, 1630, and 1650 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 444.00, 440.00, and 437.00 August, and resistance is at 458.00, 463.00, and 465.00 August.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Drops in 2nd Half of April
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of April compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 24.1 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 33.5% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 1.1 million tons of sugar, down 38.1%, and made 932 million liters of ethanol, a decline of 37.7%.
The production mix for the second half of last month was 43% sugar to 57% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 42.9% sugar and 57.1% ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country’s cane.
In the season from April 1 through April 30, mills in the region crushed 41.7 million tons of cane, down 39.7% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 43.8% to 1.8 million tons, and ethanol output fell 41.9% to 1.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through April 31 was 41.5% sugar to 58.5% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 42.1% sugar and 57.9% ethanol.

INTERVIEW, UPDATE 1-India has no plans to allow extra sugar imports -food minister – Reuters News
11-May-2017 08:02:16 AM
Adds quotes, details
By Mayank Bhardwaj
NEW DELHI, May 11 (Reuters) – India, the world’s biggest sugar consumer, has no plans to allow extra imports of the sweetener as stocks held in mills will suffice, Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said on Thursday.
Last month, the government allowed imports of half a million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar, as a drought cut output below consumption for the first time in seven years. (Full Story)
Traders were speculating that the government could soon be forced to allow imports of an extra 500,000 to 1 million tonnes to meet local demand, estimated at 24-25 million tonnes a year.
“We expect this year’s production at 20.3 million tonnes and we had 7.7 million tonnes of carryover stocks at the start of the season, with consumption estimated at 24-24.5 million tonnes, we’ll have a surplus of 3.5 million tonnes when the new season starts on Oct. 1,” Paswan told Reuters in an interview.
After consuming 2 million tonnes of sugar in October, India will be left with about 1.5 million tonnes in November, when the new season supplies pick up, he said.
Local sugar prices are steady around 38,000 rupees ($590.38) a tonne despite an uptick in demand during the summer months when sales of ice cream and cold drinks soar, potentially boosting demand for sugar.
Paswan also said his government has no immediate plans to raise the import tax on wheat.
India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, in March imposed a 10 percent import tax on the grain to curb imports when Indian farmers were starting to harvest their crops.
But most flour millers and biscuit makers in the port cities of southern India still find it attractive to import wheat from France, Ukraine and Australia.
“As long as these imports do not depress prices here and our farmers can get their guaranteed prices, we do not see any need to raise the import duty further,” Paswan said.
The state-run Food Corporation of India, the main grain procurement agency, has so far bought 27.1 million tonnes of new season wheat from farmers against previous year’s total local of 230 million tonnes, Paswan said, indicating a robust harvest.
The government has no immediate plans to tweak imports taxes on crude palm oil and refined vegetable oils, Paswan said.
The world’s biggest vegetable oil importer late last year cut the import duty on crude palm oil and refined edible oils by five percentage points to 7.5 and 15 percent respectively.
($1 = 64.36 rupees)

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Sugar – May 10
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use
==============================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
Apr May 10 Apr May 10
==============================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 2,054 2,053 NA 1,477
Production 8,840 8,774 NA 8,700
Beet sugar 4,996 4,932 NA 4,950
Cane sugar 3,844 3,842 NA 3,750
Florida 2,051 2,051 NA 2,000
Hawaii 43 43 NA 0
Louisiana 1,612 1,612 NA 1,600
Texas 138 136 NA 150
Imports 3,128 3,130 NA 3,858
TRQ 1,576 1,578 NA 1,373
Other program 375 375 NA 175
Other 1,177 1,177 NA 2,311
Mexico 1,162 1,162 NA 2,301
Total supply 14,022 13,957 NA 14,036
Exports 125 125 NA 25
Deliveries 12,255 12,355 NA 12,477
Food 12,100 12,200 NA 12,322
Other 155 155 NA 155
Miscellaneous 0 0 NA 0
Total use 12,380 12,480 NA 12,502
Ending stocks 1,642 1,477 NA 1,534
Stocks to use ratio 13.3 11.8 NA 12.3
==============================================================================

COCOA
General Comments: Cocoa futures closed mostly a little lower in consolidation trading. Bullish traders are trying to force a low, and good buying is though to be found close to 1900 New York July. Futures charts are showing that short term  have started, but the buying has stalled at current levels. The recovery in demand has been weak so far, but demand is expected to continue to grow in the next few months. Traders look for demand to improve as lower prices filter down to the retail level, but chocolate prices have been holding strong at stores. The fundamentals remain mostly bearish. Production is improved this year and demand has not improved as much as hoped, according to the recent EU grind data. The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and is above last year in Ghana. Both countries are experiencing moderate weather as rains have returned. The main crop harvest is over and the midcrop harvest is active. More rain is needed to hep maintain crop condition as temperatures have been warm to hot. Demand has been weak, but might start to improve soon as prices for Cocoa and products have turned much lower. Mostly good conditions are reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.386 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts of Cocoa were delivered against May futures, and that total deliveries for the month are 570 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2030 and 2150 July. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1790 July, with resistance at 1990, 2050, and 2070 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1590 and 1710 July. Support is at 1490, 1450, and 1410 July, with resistance at 1570, 1600, and 1630 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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