Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 99.9 98.8- 100.5
Placed in Mar 107.5 102.0- 109.5
Marketed in Mar 109.5 108.1- 110.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Grp 99.6 106.5 109.7
Allendale Inc. 100.0 108.8 110.0
CoBank 100.1 106.5 109.1
HedgersEdge 99.6 106.5 109.9
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.0 108.2 109.5
NFC Markets 98.8 102.0 109.3
Pro. Cattle Consultants 100.5 109.4 108.1
Texas A&M Extension 100.2 109.5 109.4
U.S. Commodities 99.6 106.5 109.5

DJ Canadian 2017/18 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2017/18
estimates of principal field crop area report. The figures are
as of March 31, 2017, in thousands of acres. Source: Statistics
Canada.
——-acres——-
2017/18 2016/17
Barley 5,880 6,390
Edible Beans 260 277
Canary Seed 270 260
Canola 22,387 20,367
Chickpeas 140 160
Corn for grain 3,751 3,325
Flaxseed 1,115 935
Lentils 4,385 5,860
Mustard 390 525
Oats 3,419 2,834
Dry peas 3,989 4,239
Soybeans 6,956 5,467
Summerfallow 1,765 1,990
Sunflower 50 70
Total wheat* 23,182 23,212
Durum wheat 5,145 6,190
Spring wheat 16,664 15,404
Winter wheat 1,373 1,618
*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter
wheat remaining after winterkill
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower. The export sales report was moderately positive, but traders are talking about better growing conditions and are seeing very good crops as they drive through the countryside. It is a weather market, and growing conditions have improved with recent rains in the Great Plains and Midwest. Reports from the country indicate that crops look good and that top yields are possible in many areas. However, it looks like an extended wet and cold period is coming to the northern Great Plains and Canada, and planting delays could mean less Spring Wheat. Canadian producers are already willing to plant more Canola this year, so a short crop of Spring Wheat is possible. That has supported Minneapolis over both Chicago markets in recent days. Some of the buying interest has been associated with ideas of potentially lower yield estimates in the US as well as in parts of Europe and North Africa. Parts of eastern Europe and North Africa remain very dry. A few sections of the EU are also dry. Weather in the central and southern Great Plains is good after recent rains and forecasts for more precipitation are considered good for yield prospects. It is also raining a lot in the Midwest and there are some reports of disease starting to show up in the crops that could really hurt yields and quality. US export demand has remained relatively strong and should remain strong into the next harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light precipitation today, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather this weekend and some showers early next week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers this weekend and dry weather early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 405 May. Support is at 406, 403, and 400 May, with resistance at 410, 417, and 420 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 398 and 380 May. Support is at 401, 398, and 395 May, with resistance at 412, 415, and 420 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 523, 514 and 512 May. Support is at 527, 521, and 516 May, and resistance is at 532, 534, and 541 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower in response to weak export sales and negative short term chart trends. The export sales report was a disappointment as the sales have been generally very good and above expectations by UDA and analysts until now. Chart trends have show that the market was entering a corrective mode and the correction might have run its course yesterday. The cash market has been slow as producers concentrate on planting, but small business is being done as the crop emerges and farmers start to unload the last of their supplies from the previous crop. The overall crop condition for now appears to be good.. Demand has held well in the export market, but mostly for Rough Rice and not so much for Milled Rice. There has been talk for demand from Iraq and Iran, but no sales announcements. Iraq is turning to direct negotiations after a series of tenders failed due to worries about the ability of the government to pay.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms today and Friday, then drier weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 980, 973, and 970 May, with resistance at 990, 994, and 1003 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed lower despite a relatively strong export sales report. The funds were the best sellers and appeared to be selling n many commodities markets yesterday. Oats were higher on reports of bad planting weather in Canada. The weather in the Midwest is also wet, but temperatures are relatively mild. There has not been much change in the news and no one is real concerned about planting delays in the Midwest just yet. Warmer and drier weather now would improve planting progress, but producers will gt only part of that wish list. Some rain are expected for the next couple of days, then the cooler and drier weather should arrive. The trends are mixed on the charts, but Corn trends could be starting to turn down. Corn remains a weather market as most traders focus on the Midwest conditions and delays in initial planting. More rains are expected in the Midwst today, but then it should turn drier, but cooler through the weekend. The planting pace was slow last week and is not likely to get much better this week. The season is still early, but the progress is already behind the five year average and well behind the progress at this time last year. Farmers are not yet concerned, but are watching the forecasts. Producers in just about all states have been affected by the weather. However, they have the equipment to get the crop planted very quickly once better planting weather arrives.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 358, 354, and 351 May, and resistance is at 365, 369, and 371 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 219, 216, and 214 May, and resistance is at 225, 228, and 230 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybean Oil closed higher, but Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower. Funds were the best sellers of Soybeans and Soybean Meal and were buyers of Soybean Oil. Support for Soybean Oil came again from ideas that the Commerce Dept was prepared to act to curb the imports of Argentine bio fuels. The move would increase demand for US produced fuels that use vegetable oils. The other markets reacted mostly to forecasts for better weather in the US and on ideas of slowing demand. However, there was talk again yesterday that China had expressed interest in buying US Soybeans for July and August shipments due to the lack of offer in South America and the relatively competitive prices seen for US Soybeans in world markets.. The weather has made initial Corn planting progress slow, and some Soybeans producers in the southern states have also been slowed down. However, better weather is expected after this week so planting progress can improve. There are still ideas that a lot of Soybeans will be planted in the US this year. Brazil producers have slowed recent selling in response to lower futures. Offers at the ports have become more difficult to find as exporters concentrate on fulfilling sales already made. Chinese buying has been less due to disease problems in that country, but talk in the US implies that China might be a strong buyer here for shipment in July and August. Total US export sales remain above the forecast made by USDA in its monthly outlooks. Traders will continue to watch the export demand and the weather now for clues about price direction. More rains in the next few weeks could keep Corn planting slow and forcé some additional acres to Soybeans.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 146,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 940, 938, and 932 May, and resistance is at 957, 960, and 968 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 307.00, and 306.00 May, and resistance is at 315.00, 317.00, and 320.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3090, 3050, and 3010 May, with resistance at 3140, 3180, and 3200 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed higher again on forecasts for wet and cold weather in the Prairies and on a weaker Canadian Dollar. May closed higher due to a tight domestic cash market. Farmers are unwilling sellers, and demand from crushers and exporters is moderate. Basis levels have been firming along with futures to encourage sales. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term.. Palm Oil was higher as traders reacted to the export data from private sources and some talk that production is still not that good. Stronger outside markets also provided a little support. Palm Oil production appears to be increasing and Palm Oil exporters will find a lot of competition for sales from Soybean Oil. Palm Oil is available as MPOB reported, and a lot of Soybean Oil will soon be available..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 544 May. Support is at 512.00, 507.00, and 501.00 May, with resistance at 520.00, 525.00, and 530.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2480, 2450, and 2440 July, with resistance at 2530, 2570, and 2600 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Dry today and this weekend and precipitation again early next week. Temperatures will be cool this weekend and war next weerk.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 36 May 108 May 45 May 34 May minus 4 May
May 36 May 45 May 32 May
June 31-Jul 38 July 26-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
April minus 26 July
May minus 26 July
June minus 26 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Apr 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 677.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 607.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 647.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 610.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 597.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 610.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 620.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,720 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 252.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4005)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 183,344 lots, or 6.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,670 3,681 3,650 3,653 3,675 3,662 -13 5,858 35,682
Jul-17 3,742 3,765 3,714 3,714 3,736 3,740 4 14 62
Sep-17 3,748 3,769 3,730 3,743 3,743 3,747 4 171,178 249,612
Nov-17 3,804 3,804 3,800 3,800 3,818 3,800 -18 10 26
Jan-18 3,795 3,807 3,773 3,784 3,788 3,791 3 3,992 15,836
Mar-18 – – – 3,873 3,873 3,873 0 0 10
May-18 3,917 3,919 3,875 3,895 3,888 3,899 11 2,292 1,026
Jul-18 – – – 3,821 3,811 3,821 10 0 2
Sep-18 – – – 3,924 3,922 3,924 2 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 1,337,924 lots, or 21.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,601 1,632 1,601 1,631 1,599 1,618 19 55,750 210,358
Jul-17 1,612 1,637 1,611 1,632 1,610 1,625 15 224 1,208
Sep-17 1,622 1,650 1,620 1,649 1,622 1,635 13 1,105,960 1,704,166
Nov-17 1,661 1,682 1,661 1,679 1,655 1,669 14 78 2,138
Jan-18 1,661 1,686 1,656 1,685 1,660 1,672 12 175,622 542,130
Mar-18 1,675 1,691 1,671 1,689 1,677 1,678 1 290 1,176
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,292,110 lots, or 36.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,899 2,899 2,871 2,888 2,883 2,882 -1 54,516 112,442
Jul-17 2,864 2,865 2,835 2,860 2,855 2,857 2 444 1,748
Aug-17 2,846 2,850 2,834 2,842 2,853 2,841 -12 20 622
Sep-17 2,846 2,849 2,817 2,828 2,836 2,830 -6 1,170,678 2,536,034
Nov-17 2,848 2,848 2,841 2,841 2,844 2,844 0 18 134
Dec-17 2,845 2,847 2,839 2,839 2,859 2,844 -15 30 372
Jan-18 2,855 2,861 2,832 2,841 2,854 2,843 -11 66,390 356,080
Mar-18 2,830 2,830 2,830 2,830 2,843 2,830 -13 14 94
Palm Oil
Turnover: 495,788 lots, or 25.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,676 5,712 5,594 5,608 5,628 5,646 18 16,446 45,398
Jun-17 5,342 5,342 5,342 5,342 5,564 5,342 -222 2 22
Jul-17 – – – 5,338 5,338 5,338 0 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,144 5,144 5,144 0 0 6
Sep-17 5,156 5,178 5,120 5,164 5,126 5,152 26 444,644 558,444
Oct-17 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 12
Nov-17 – – – 5,160 5,160 5,160 0 0 166
Dec-17 – – – 5,112 5,112 5,112 0 0 4
Jan-18 5,064 5,080 5,028 5,068 5,036 5,058 22 34,692 147,556
Feb-18 – – – 5,154 5,154 5,154 0 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,150 5,150 5,150 0 0 10
Apr-18 5,168 5,168 5,166 5,166 5,154 5,166 12 4 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 581,962 lots, or 33.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,700 5,700 5,656 5,688 5,664 5,682 18 19,220 63,708
Jul-17 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 4
Aug-17 5,730 5,738 5,682 5,682 5,710 5,704 -6 34 52
Sep-17 5,838 5,846 5,782 5,820 5,800 5,814 14 533,580 964,490
Nov-17 5,868 5,880 5,868 5,880 5,928 5,874 -54 12 12
Dec-17 – – – 6,006 6,006 6,006 0 0 10
Jan-18 5,986 6,010 5,946 5,984 5,962 5,980 18 29,116 106,316
Mar-18 – – – 6,126 6,108 6,126 18 0 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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