Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 99.9 98.8- 100.5
Placed in Mar 107.5 102.0- 109.5
Marketed in Mar 109.5 108.1- 110.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Grp 99.6 106.5 109.7
Allendale Inc. 100.0 108.8 110.0
CoBank 100.1 106.5 109.1
HedgersEdge 99.6 106.5 109.9
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.0 108.2 109.5
NFC Markets 98.8 102.0 109.3
Pro. Cattle Consultants 100.5 109.4 108.1
Texas A&M Extension 100.2 109.5 109.4
U.S. Commodities 99.6 106.5 109.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 20
For the week ended Apr 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 414.0 137.2 27653.0 19648.3 5432.8 1575.9
hrw 268.0 0.0 11527.0 5564.9 1880.6 324.4
srw 13.7 0.0 2422.9 3123.4 406.9 139.1
hrs 63.9 54.1 8451.6 6500.7 1691.3 588.9
white 68.4 73.1 4744.8 3761.1 1325.3 471.1
durum 0.0 10.0 506.9 698.3 128.8 52.5
corn 756.4 91.8 50056.0 34926.9 15443.5 2324.7
soybeans 211.0 14.0 55700.9 45118.5 7130.2 2682.3
soymeal 135.0 0.1 8867.9 8620.8 2785.9 369.3
soyoil 33.2 0.0 824.0 730.0 138.6 1.7
upland cotton 226.3 117.1 13108.5 7602.0 3990.1 2147.3
pima cotton 10.7 1.2 583.2 433.0 147.7 27.5
sorghum 46.9 0.0 4086.7 6589.6 804.7 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 25.3 27.3 8.2 27.8
rice 12.5 0.0 2965.7 2869.9 524.1 13.1

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower, with even Minneapolis closing lower after making new highs for the move. It is a weather market, and growing conditions have improved with recent rains in the Great Plains and Midwest. Reports from the country indicate that crops look good and that top yields are possible in many areas. However, it looks like an extended wet and cold period is coming to the northern Great Plains and Canada, and planting delays could mean less Spring Wheat. Canadian producers are already willing to plant more Canola this year, so a short crop of Spring Wheat is possible. That has supported Minneapolis over both Chicago markets in recent days. Some of the buying interest has been associated with ideas of potentially lower yield estimates in the US as well as in parts of Europe and North Africa. Parts of eastern Europe and North Africa remain very dry. A few sections of the EU are also dry. Weather in the central and southern Great Plains is good after recent rains and forecasts for more precipitation are considered good for yield prospects. It is also raining a lot in the Midwest and there are some reports of disease starting to show up in the crops that could really hurt yields and quality. US export demand has remained strong and should remain strong into the next harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 405 May. Support is at 417, 416, and 410 May, with resistance at 425, 429, and 432 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 411 May. Support is at 415, 412, and 409 May, with resistance at 424, 426, and 429 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 542, 552 and 561 May. Support is at 532, 527, and 521 May, and resistance is at 541, 545, and 550 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged and futures really lacked direction for most of the day. Not much has changed in this market, and the charts show that futures are in a correction mode. The cash market has been slow as producers concentrate on planting, but small business is being done as the crop emerges and farmers start to unload the last of their supplies from the previous crop. The overall crop condition for now appears to be good.. Demand has held well in the export market, but mostly for Rough Rice and not so much for Milled Rice. There has been talk for demand from Iraq and Iran, but no sales announcements. Iraq is turning to direct negotiations after a series of tenders failed due to worries about the ability of the government to pay. Futures are turning trends down for the short  term after failing at some resistance areas late last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms today and Friday, then drier weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1000 and 985 May. Support is at 1000, 994, and 990 May, with resistance at 1014, 1018, and 1021 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed sharply unchanged in uneventful trading. There has not been much change in the news and no one is real concerned about planting delays in the Midwest just yet. Warmer and drier weather now would improve planting progress, but producers will gt only part of that wish list. Some rain are expected for the next couple of days, then the cooler and drier weather should arrive. The trends are mixed on the charts. Corn remains a weather market as most traders focus on the Midwest conditions and delays in initial planting. More rains are expected in the Midwest today, but then it should turn drier, but cooler through the weekend. The planting pace was slow last week and is not likely to get much better this week. The season is still early, but the progress is already behind the five year average and well behind the progress at this time last year. Farmers are not yet concerned, but are watching the forecasts. Producers in just about all states have been affected by the weather. However, they have the equipment to get the crop planted very quickly once better planting weather arrives.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 358, 354, and 351 May, and resistance is at 365, 369, and 371 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 214, 212, and 210 May, and resistance is at 222, 225, and 228 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher, but soybean Meal closed lower. Support for Soybean Oil cameo n ideas that the Commerce Dept was prepared to act to curb the imports of Argentine bio fuels. The move would increase demand for US produced fuels that use vegetable oils. The other markets were quiet and reacted mostly to forecasts for better weather in the US and on ideas of slowing demand. However, there was talk yesterday that China had expressed interest in buying US Soybeans for July and August shipments due to the lack of offer in South America and the relatively competitive prices seen for US Soybeans in world markets.. The weather has made initial Corn planting progress slow, and some Soybeans producers in the southern states have also been slowed down. However, better weather is expected after this week so planting progress can improve. There are still ideas that a lot of Soybeans will be planted in the US this year. Brazil producers have slowed recent selling in response to lower futures. Offers at the ports have become more difficult to find as exporters concentrate on fulfilling sales already made. Chinese buying has been less due to disease problems in that country. Total US export sales are now just above the forecast made by USDA in its monthly outlooks. Traders will continue to watch the export demand and the weather now for clues about price direction. More rains in the next few weeks could keep Corn planting slow and force some additional acres to Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 940, 938, and 932 May, and resistance is at 957, 960, and 968 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 307.00, and 306.00 May, and resistance is at 315.00, 317.00, and 320.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3090, 3050, and 3010 May, with resistance at 3140, 3180, and 3200 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed higher again on forecasts for wet and cold weather in the Prairies and on a weaker Canadian Dollar. May closed higher due to a tight domestic cash market. Farmers are unwilling sellers, and demand from crusher and exporters is moderate. Basis levels in the Prairies are reported to be firm. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term.. Palm Oil was higher as traders reacted to the export data from private sources. Stronger outside markets also provided a little support. Palm Oil production appears to be increasing and Palm Oil exporters will find a lot of competition for sales from Soybean Oil. Palm Oil is available as MPOB reported, and a lot of Soybean Oil will soon be available..
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 719,175 tons so far this month, from 686,741 tons last month. ITS said that exports are now 705,372 tons, from 711,286 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 518 and 544 May. Support is at 507.00, 501.00, and 497.00 May, with resistance at 517.00, 520.00, and 525.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2450, 2440, and 2410 July, with resistance at 2490, 2530, and 2570 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today and again early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 36 May 108 May 47 May 29-May minus 4 May
May 36 May 47 May 29-May
June 31-Jul 38 July 24-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April plus 39 May minus 29 May
May plus 39 May minus 29 July
June plus 40 May minus 26 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 18
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 503.80 up 8.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 525.80 up 2.00
2 Can 512.80 up 2.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 542.80 unchanged
2 Can 529.80 unchanged
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 173.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 675.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 637.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 602.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 587.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
May 677.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 640.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 605.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 590.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 610.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 625.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,680 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 250.00 +11.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.3960)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 304,598 lots, or 11.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,693 3,693 3,650 3,670 3,668 3,675 7 6,754 37,106
Jul-17 – – – 3,736 3,736 3,736 0 0 58
Sep-17 3,749 3,774 3,702 3,752 3,729 3,743 14 289,822 247,684
Nov-17 – – – 3,818 3,818 3,818 0 0 18
Jan-18 3,787 3,814 3,751 3,795 3,777 3,788 11 6,644 15,596
Mar-18 – – – 3,873 3,873 3,873 0 0 10
May-18 3,888 3,918 3,853 3,912 3,885 3,888 3 1,372 924
Jul-18 3,811 3,811 3,811 3,811 3,927 3,811 -116 2 2
Sep-18 3,922 3,922 3,922 3,922 3,925 3,922 -3 4 14
Corn
Turnover: 851,948 lots, or 13.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,591 1,605 1,591 1,604 1,594 1,599 5 28,840 228,840
Jul-17 1,602 1,615 1,602 1,615 1,608 1,610 2 56 1,372
Sep-17 1,616 1,629 1,614 1,626 1,614 1,622 8 725,662 1,799,344
Nov-17 1,654 1,658 1,653 1,655 1,649 1,655 6 178 2,154
Jan-18 1,653 1,666 1,652 1,663 1,653 1,660 7 97,174 534,060
Mar-18 1,677 1,681 1,672 1,679 1,670 1,677 7 38 1,048
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,828,976 lots, or 51.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,871 2,903 2,863 2,888 2,855 2,883 28 51,914 143,156
Jul-17 2,855 2,865 2,843 2,865 2,830 2,855 25 288 1,894
Aug-17 2,848 2,860 2,848 2,850 2,829 2,853 24 78 622
Sep-17 2,834 2,849 2,821 2,844 2,820 2,836 16 1,621,148 2,510,120
Nov-17 2,844 2,844 2,844 2,844 2,835 2,844 9 4 138
Dec-17 2,865 2,865 2,856 2,861 2,848 2,859 11 22 360
Jan-18 2,844 2,869 2,841 2,855 2,851 2,854 3 155,492 358,966
Mar-18 2,841 2,852 2,828 2,848 2,861 2,843 -18 30 88
Palm Oil
Turnover: 670,920 lots, or 34.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,620 5,690 5,584 5,680 5,638 5,628 -10 28,744 46,836
Jun-17 – – – 5,564 5,564 5,564 0 0 20
Jul-17 – – – 5,338 5,346 5,338 -8 0 4
Aug-17 5,144 5,144 5,144 5,144 5,284 5,144 -140 2 6
Sep-17 5,106 5,160 5,092 5,146 5,122 5,126 4 577,654 569,572
Oct-17 – – – 5,162 5,262 5,162 -100 0 12
Nov-17 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 0 4 166
Dec-17 – – – 5,112 5,112 5,112 0 0 4
Jan-18 5,020 5,064 5,008 5,052 5,044 5,036 -8 64,502 148,562
Feb-18 – – – 5,154 5,162 5,154 -8 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,150 5,158 5,150 -8 0 10
Apr-18 5,136 5,180 5,136 5,180 5,252 5,154 -98 14 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 780,042 lots, or 45.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,630 5,690 5,584 5,670 5,656 5,664 8 40,288 69,992
Jul-17 5,610 5,610 5,610 5,610 5,796 5,610 -186 2 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,710 5,678 5,710 32 0 36
Sep-17 5,762 5,832 5,742 5,816 5,814 5,800 -14 689,060 973,242
Nov-17 5,996 5,996 5,858 5,858 6,014 5,928 -86 6 16
Dec-17 – – – 6,006 6,092 6,006 -86 0 10
Jan-18 5,928 5,992 5,918 5,980 5,982 5,962 -20 50,686 107,318
Mar-18 – – – 6,108 6,128 6,108 -20 0 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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