Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was mixes, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. First Notice Day for May futures is coming, and some speculators are getting out of long positions. Strong demand should continue to support futures in the short term. The demand has been much better than anyone expected and caused US farmers to indicate interest in planting much more Cotton this year. Planting has been slow due to the recent rains in most US production areas. The market is seeing that the US has mostly good conditions for planting and development. Enough rain has fallen now, so some dry weather would be favorable for fieldwork, but forecasts call for more showers into next week. Export demand has remained strong and much stronger than expected by just about everyone. US mills still have yet to price a lot of on call purchases. The May fixations are getting done, but there are still a lot of July contracts open that should support that month in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get more rain starting tomorrow, with dry conditions returning by Sunday. Temperatures should will average above normal. Texas will see the potential for heavy rains again tomorrow and Friday and dry weather over the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 75.15 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 298,686 bales, from 295,436 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7810, 8050, and 8290 May. Support is at 7580, 7510, and 7460 May, with resistance of 7750, 7810, and 7880 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly higher, but could not penetrate resistance on the charts at about 165.00 May. Speculators appear to be buying, in part in anticipation of the hurricane season that begins next month. The market has been trying to extend recent grains as the weather remains dry in Florida, but weak demand is keeping a lid on prices. Dry weather in Florida has been the main reason for the buying interest. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees have lost blooms and the fruit is developing. Small fruit is now being reported everywhere. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss. The harvest has been very active. Early and Mid Oranges are moving mostly to processors, and this part of the harvest is winding down. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is very active.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Brazil should get episodes of scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 159.00, 155.00, and 151.00 May, with resistance at 166.00, 169.00, and 170.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher. It appears that the funds are buying now after selling to commercials for the past few weeks. The markets are still in a trading range for now, but the chart patterns are increasingly bullish. A lot of analysts say that the market needs to rally due to the reduced production this year and next. The world cash market remains slow, with a lack of demand the primary problem. Prices are low for producers and differentials remain generally weak. Ideas are that Robusta supplies are tight once again, and London is holding a sideways trend. New York continues to show a generally sideways pattern, but closed at or just above resistance areas yesterday. Many participants are on the way to Seattle for the SCAA convention that is late this week and into the weekend.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.411 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 135.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures should average above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 149.00 and 154.00 July. Support is at 142.00, 140.00, and 139.00 July, and resistance is at 146.00, 148.00 and 153.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2150, and 2140 July, and resistance is at 2210, 2220, and 2230 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and remain in the trading range seen for the last couple of weeks. Futures this time held at support areas. The daily charts show generally mixed trends. The market held a Support zone and rallied strongly, and follow through buying could change short term trends to up. The EU has short stocks as does India, and prices have been firm in both areas. The EU said it was studying the idea of imports, but the Indian government has approved the import of Sugar with no duty. The amount authorized to import was at the low end of expectations. The world situation would imply that production can recover after El Nino induced losses last year. The weather service there is looking for a normal monsoon. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much dryer than normal in the Northeast. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather or light showers this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil Sugarcane production for 2016-17 is estimated at 657.2 tons by IBGE. It expects 2017-18 production at 647.6 million tons.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1790 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 467.00, 465.00, and 458.00 August, and resistance is at 480.00, 485.00, and 489.00 August.
DJ India Moves to Check Sugar Prices — Market Talk
1057 GMT – India’s federal cabinet has extended by six months until October 28 powers vested on state governments to regulate the supply of sugar to prevent any hoarding. State governments can fix limits on stocks that can be held. Although there are ample stocks by the leading sugar-consuming nation, the government says an anticipated production drop due to bad weather could lead to hoarding. Recently, India’s government announced easy loans and a subsidy program to help domestic sugarcane growers as well as allowed some tax-free imports of raw sugar to bridge any shortfall. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
General Comments: Futures markets closed lower and were lower all day on demand concerns. A weaker US Dollar made for better price action in New York when compared to London. The chart patterns imply that a test of recent lows is likely in New York as London moves to new contract lows. Production is improved this year and demand has not improved s much as hoped, according to the recent world grind data. The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and is above last year in Ghana. Both countries ar experiencing moderate weather as rains have returned. Demand has been weak, but might start to improve soon as prices for Cocoa and products have turned much lower. Mostly good conditions are reported in Southeast Asia. The demand remains a question, with everyone expecting continued weaker demand in Europe. Ideas are that the US demand might be somewhat improved, but no one has real confidence in those ideas.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.092 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts of Cocoa were delivered against May futures, and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1890, 1880, and 1860 July, with resistance at 1950, 1990, and 2060 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1480, 1450, and 1420 July, with resistance at 1560, 1570, and 1640 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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