Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 99.9 98.8- 100.5
Placed in Mar 107.5 102.0- 109.5
Marketed in Mar 109.5 108.1- 110.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Grp 99.6 106.5 109.7
Allendale Inc. 100.0 108.8 110.0
CoBank 100.1 106.5 109.1
HedgersEdge 99.6 106.5 109.9
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.0 108.2 109.5
NFC Markets 98.8 102.0 109.3
Pro. Cattle Consultants 100.5 109.4 108.1
Texas A&M Extension 100.2 109.5 109.4
U.S. Commodities 99.6 106.5 109.5

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported By Rail – Apr 19
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed Apr 19, 2017 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING MARCH 2017
————————————————————————
Mar-17 Feb-17 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 798
FLAXSEED 13 1,297 0 1,297
WHEAT DU 1 100 0 100
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 3 300 698 1,298
WHEAT HRW 12 1,198 998 3,394
MEXICO
CORN WHITE 69 6,886 3,992 10,878
CORN YELLOW 5,822 580,978 440,670 1,459,924
OATS 3 300 2,196 3,994
SORGHUM 285 28,440 0 45,405
SOYBEANS 111 110,866 125,136 399,457
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 47 4,690 2,994 12,574
WHEAT HRS 191 19,060 0 32,631
WHEAT HRW 1,194 119,153 114,565 371,133
WHEAT SRW 187 18,661 12,073 41,012
WHEAT SWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised
Year to Date is January
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Contact and Office Info
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago SRW and HRW prices lower and Minneapolis HRS futures somewhat higher. It is a weather market, and growing conditions have improved with recent rains in the Great Plains and Midwest However, it looks like an extended wet and cold period is coming to the northern Great Plains and Canada, and planting delays could mean less Spring Wheat. Canadian producers are already willing to plant more Canola this year, so a short crop of Spring Wheat is possible. Some of the buying was associated with ideas of potentially lower yield estimates in the US as well as in parts of Europe and North Africa. Parts of eastern Europe and North Africa remain very dry. Weather in the central and southern Great Plains is good after recent rains and forecasts for more precipitation are considered good for yield prospects. It is also raining a lot in the Midwest and there are some reports of disease starting to show up in the crops that could really hurt yields and quality. US export demand has remained strong and should remain strong into the next harvest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 405 May. Support is at 419, 417, and 416 May, with resistance at 425, 429, and 432 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 411 May. Support is at 415, 412, and 409 May, with resistance at 423, 426, and 429 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 542, 552 and 561 May. Support is at 532, 527, and 521 May, and resistance is at 541, 545, and 550 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower as the recent bullish ideas are fading a little bit. The cash market has been slow as producers concentrate on planting, but small Business is being dough as the crop emerges. The overall crop condition for now appears to be good.. Demand has held well in the export market, but the market keeps hoping for more milled demand. There has been talk for demand from Iraq and Iran, but no sales announcements. Iraq is turning to direct negotiations after a series of tenders failed due to worries about the ability of the government to pay. Futures are turning trends down for the short term after failing at some resistance areas late last week. Speculators have been very short and are now being forced to cover part of these positions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms tomorrow and Friday, then crier weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1000 and 985 May. Support is at 1000, 994, and 990 May, with resistance at 1018, 1021, and 1029 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 19
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.79 8.65 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.28 9.07 0.00
Brokens 8.32 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed lower on forecasts for warmer and drier weather in the Midwest over the next week to 10 days. Warmer and drier weather now would improve planting progress. Some rain are expected for the next couple of days, then the warmer and drier weather should arrive. The trends are mixed on the charts and prices are testing support areas. Corn remains a weather market as most traders focus on the Midwest conditions and delays in initial planting. More rains are expected in the Midwest today and tomorrow, but then it should turn drier, but cooler through the weekend. The planting pace was slow last week and is not likely to get much better this week. The season is still early, but the progress is already behind the five year average and well behind the progress at this time last year. Farmers are not yet concerned, but are watching the forecasts. Producers in just about all states have been affected by the weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 358, 354, and 351 May, and resistance is at 365, 369, and 371 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 214, 212, and 210 May, and resistance is at 222, 225, and 228 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on forecasts for better weather in the US and on ideas of slowing demand. Even a weaker US Dollar could not provide much Support for Soybeans or the other CBOT markets. The weather has made initial Corn planting progress slow, and some Soybeans producers in the southern states have also been slowed down. However, better weather is expected after this week so planting progress can improve. There are still ideas that a lot of Soybeans will be planted in the US this year. Brazil producers have slowed recent selling in response to lower futures. Offers at the ports have become more difficult to find as exporters concentrate on fulfilling sales already made. Chinese buying has been less due to disease problems in that country. Total US export sales are now just above the forecast made by USDA in its monthly outlooks. Traders will continue to watch the export demand and the weather now for clues about price direction. More rains in the next few weeks could keep Corn planting slow and force some additional acres to Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 938, 932, and 930 May, and resistance is at 952, 957, and 960 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 307.00, and 306.00 May, and resistance is at 315.00, 317.00, and 320.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2880 May. Support is at 3090, 3050, and 3010 May, with resistance at 3140, 3180, and 3200 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed mostly higher on forecasts for wet and cold weather in the Prairies and on a weaker Canadian Dollar. May closed higher due to a tight domestic cash market. Farmers are unwilling sellers, and demand from crusher and exporters is moderate. Basis levels in the Prairies are reported to be firm. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term.. Palm Oil was lower. Palm Oil production appears to be increasing and Palm Oil exporters will find a lot of competition for sales from Soybean Oil. The good news so far this month has come from the private sources who are reporting increased demand from a month ago. Exports so far about 12% higher than last month.. However, Palm Oil is available as MPOB reported, and a lot of Soybean Oil will soon be available..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 518 and 544 May. Support is at 512.00, 501.00, and 497.00 May, with resistance at 517.00, 520.00, and 525.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2470, 2450, and 2440 July, with resistance at 2530, 2570, and 2600 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today and again about Thursday. Temperatures will average near normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 35 May 108 May 47 May 30-May minus 4 May
May 36 May 47 May 28-May
June 30-Jul 38 July 23-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April minus 31 May
May minus 26 July
June minus 26 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 18
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 503.80 up 8.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 525.80 up 2.00
2 Can 512.80 up 2.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 542.80 unchanged
2 Can 529.80 unchanged
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 173.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 667.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 630.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 595.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 587.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

May 667.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 630.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 595.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 587.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 610.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 620.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 2,650 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 239.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.3850)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 265,562 lots, or 9.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,641 3,687 3,635 3,681 3,695 3,668 -27 8,510 38,886
Jul-17 – – – 3,736 3,736 3,736 0 0 58
Sep-17 3,718 3,748 3,695 3,746 3,738 3,729 -9 250,428 265,590
Nov-17 – – – 3,818 3,818 3,818 0 0 18
Jan-18 3,765 3,796 3,742 3,791 3,791 3,777 -14 6,018 14,740
Mar-18 – – – 3,873 3,887 3,873 -14 0 10
May-18 3,870 3,900 3,862 3,890 3,922 3,885 -37 592 784
Jul-18 3,940 3,940 3,915 3,915 3,929 3,927 -2 4 4
Sep-18 3,905 3,950 3,905 3,928 3,959 3,925 -34 10 14
Corn
Turnover: 1,531,690 lots, or 24.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,608 1,608 1,586 1,594 1,609 1,594 -15 52,192 239,826
Jul-17 1,588 1,615 1,588 1,607 1,617 1,608 -9 210 1,388
Sep-17 1,623 1,624 1,606 1,616 1,631 1,614 -17 1,309,118 1,839,010
Nov-17 1,651 1,654 1,644 1,646 1,668 1,649 -19 852 2,268
Jan-18 1,661 1,663 1,645 1,655 1,669 1,653 -16 169,290 534,878
Mar-18 1,675 1,678 1,664 1,665 1,684 1,670 -14 28 1,048
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,124,578 lots, or 59.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,853 2,881 2,831 2,881 2,856 2,855 -1 67,036 167,440
Jul-17 2,816 2,900 2,790 2,900 2,842 2,830 -12 926 1,946
Aug-17 2,825 2,860 2,816 2,854 2,840 2,829 -11 102 592
Sep-17 2,810 2,859 2,793 2,856 2,820 2,820 0 1,941,632 2,543,530
Nov-17 2,810 2,853 2,810 2,849 2,853 2,835 -18 56 138
Dec-17 2,835 2,877 2,835 2,866 2,852 2,848 -4 48 370
Jan-18 2,842 2,885 2,824 2,881 2,852 2,851 -1 114,764 351,292
Mar-18 2,855 2,864 2,855 2,864 2,843 2,861 18 14 90
Palm Oil
Turnover: 680,598 lots, or 34.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,634 5,680 5,600 5,608 5,692 5,638 -54 22,836 56,366
Jun-17 – – – 5,564 5,564 5,564 0 0 20
Jul-17 – – – 5,346 5,396 5,346 -50 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,284 5,284 5,284 0 0 8
Sep-17 5,154 5,162 5,084 5,126 5,210 5,122 -88 609,456 574,438
Oct-17 – – – 5,262 5,262 5,262 0 0 12
Nov-17 5,150 5,174 5,150 5,174 5,248 5,160 -88 8 166
Dec-17 – – – 5,112 5,198 5,112 -86 0 4
Jan-18 5,084 5,084 5,004 5,046 5,136 5,044 -92 48,298 140,458
Feb-18 – – – 5,162 5,256 5,162 -94 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,158 5,252 5,158 -94 0 10
Apr-18 – – – 5,252 5,252 5,252 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 920,088 lots, or 53.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,750 5,750 5,612 5,622 5,808 5,656 -152 53,312 79,860
Jul-17 5,796 5,796 5,796 5,796 5,876 5,796 -80 2 4
Aug-17 5,678 5,678 5,678 5,678 5,868 5,678 -190 2 36
Sep-17 5,892 5,894 5,770 5,794 5,952 5,814 -138 824,890 963,156
Nov-17 – – – 6,014 6,014 6,014 0 0 10
Dec-17 – – – 6,092 6,236 6,092 -144 0 10
Jan-18 6,058 6,058 5,940 5,962 6,118 5,982 -136 41,882 109,800
Mar-18 – – – 6,128 6,128 6,128 0 0 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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