Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Apr 13
For the week ended Apr 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 421.6 125.3 27239.0 19320.3 5759.6 1438.8
hrw 206.4 18.1 11259.0 5430.5 1971.4 324.4
srw 28.6 0.0 2409.2 3122.4 491.8 139.1
hrs 112.9 58.7 8387.7 6412.0 1818.4 534.7
white 52.3 23.5 4676.3 3659.1 1347.7 398.0
durum 21.5 25.0 506.9 696.2 130.3 42.5
corn 738.0 50.0 49299.7 33724.2 16095.5 2232.9
soybeans 402.3 124.7 55489.8 44710.7 7350.1 2668.3
soymeal 158.7 79.5 8733.0 8489.2 2848.4 369.2
soyoil 18.6 0.0 790.8 719.3 111.9 1.7
upland cotton 307.2 204.2 12882.3 7497.3 4122.5 2030.2
pima cotton 9.7 11.5 572.6 419.9 145.6 26.3
sorghum 75.0 0.0 4039.8 6559.3 893.8 0.0
barley 1.0 0.0 25.4 27.2 8.3 27.8
rice 60.2 0.0 2953.1 2748.6 569.4 13.1

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago SRW prices a little lower and Chicago HRW and Minneapolis HRS futures somewhat higher. It appeared to be a short covering rally before the long weekend. Some of the buying was associated with ideas of potentially lower yield estimates in the US as well as in parts of Europe and North Africa. Weather in the Great Plains is good after recent rains and forecasts for more precipitation into next week are considered good for yield prospects. It is also raining a lot in the Midwest and there are some reports of disease starting to show up in the crops that could really hurt yields and quality. Futures have formed a bottom and trends on the charts have turned up for the short term. US export demand has remained strong and should remain strong into the next harvest. There was more talk about some dry conditions in Europe and also in North Africa. The drier weather in North Africa could start to cause losses in yield potential, and the dry EU conditions could cause some yield losses soon. The cash markets have been slightly firmer.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 437, 448, and 465 May. Support is at 430, 425, and 419 May, with resistance at 436, 441, and 443 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 439, 453, and 505 May. Support is at 427, 423, and 417 May, with resistance at 436, 439, and 446 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 561 nd 575 May. Support is at 521, 516, and 513 May, and resistance is at 533, 535, and 538 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower as late selling hit the market. There was really nothing going on, but some selling pushed the market down in the last five minutes. The selling appeared to come from some funds as the commercial side of the market has been more quiet. Demand has held well in the export market, but the market keeps hoping for more milled demand. There has been talk for demand from Iraq and Iran, but no sales announcements. Futures are holding Support areas on the charts and could work higher over time. Speculators have been very short and are now being forced to cover part of these positions. The lower than expected data from the Planting Intentions report has been the trigger for the move higher, and stronger demand should also Support the price. Most of the planting and fieldwork has been reported from Louisiana and Texas until now, but most of te Delta is now active.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms today and tomorrow, then crier weather. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1014, 1005, and 1000 May, with resistance at 1029, 1032, and 1040 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what was called fund buying. The trends are turning up on the charts and there are widespread ideas that futures can move higher in the next few sessions. Corn is turning into a weather market as most traders focus on the Midwest conditions and delays in initial planting. More rains are expected in the Midwest today and again next week. The planting pace was slow last week and is not likely to get any better this week. The season is still early, but the progress is already behind the five year average and well behind the progress at this time last year. Farmers are not yet concerned, but the rains have created some buying interest in futures. Producers in just about all states have been affected by the weather. Traders are looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales. USDA agreed and showed big production potential. South America still needs to fill its internal markets before exporting much, but the region is expected to provide strong competition for the US by late in the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 385, 397, and 401 May. Support is at 365, 362, and 358 May, and resistance is at 371, 375, and 378 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 220, 218, and 214 May, and resistance is at 225, 228, and 231 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher on what appeared to be fund buying. The funds and other speculators have been very short the market, and some are closing positions before the long weekend. Soybean Oil was higher despite weakness in Palm Oil, and Soybean Meal broke some resistance areas on the charts. Soybeans closed higher after holding well despite the USDA estimates showing the potential for big competition from South America in the next several weeks. The domestic estimates were in line with trade expectations. USDA increased production for Argentina, and increased production in a big way for Brazil. The increased production for Brazil was above analyst ideas, but were not above estimates seen in the press in recent weeks. Chinese buying has been less due to disease problems in that country. Total US export sales are now just above the forecast made by USDA in its monthly outlooks. Traders will watch the export demand and the weather now for clues about price direction. More rains in the next few weeks could keep Corn planting slow and force some additional acres to Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 943, 938, and 932 May, and resistance is at 954, 957, and 960 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 317.00 and 323.00 May. Support is at 310.00, 307.00, and 306.00 May, and resistance is at 314.00, 317.00, and 320.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2880 May. Support is at 3090, 3050, and 3010 May, with resistance at 3140, 3180, and 3200 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed mostly higher after trading lower for much of the session. May closed higher due to a tight domestic cash market, but July was lower on spreads. Farmers are unwilling sellers, and demand from crusher and exporters is moderate. Basis levels in the Prairies are reported to be firm. It is wet in the Eastern Prairies and there is some talk of planting delays. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term.. Palm Oil was lower. Palm Oil production appears to be increasing and Palm Oil exporters will find a lot of competition for sales from Soybean Oil. The good news so far this month has come from the private sources who are reporting increased demand. However, Palm Oil is available as MPOB reported, and a lot of Soybean Oil will soon be available..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 499, 502, and 508 May. Support is at 489.00, 486.00, and 482.00 May, with resistance at 497.00, 502.00, and 507.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2540 and 2440 June. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 June, with resistance at 2630, 2640, and 2710 June.

MPOB Report:
Observation period : Mar
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Monday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.39 mil tonnes, Up 10.4%
Exports – 1.18 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Up 0.1%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.46 mil tonnes, Up 16.3%
Exports – 1.27 mil tonnes, Up 14.3%
Ending Stocks – 1.55 mil tonnes, Up 6.5%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.26 mil tonnes, Down 1.4%
Exports – 1.11 mil tonnes, Down 14.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Down 5.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today and again about Thursday. Temperatures will average near normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 33 May 107 May 51 May 24-Jul minus 4 May
May 36 July 51 July 24-Jul
June 30-Jul 40 July 19-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April minus 28 May
May minus 28 May
June minus 25 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 12
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 489.50 dn 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 510.00 up 0.50
2 Can 497.00 up 0.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 529.00 up 0.50
2 Can 516.00 up 0.50
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 173.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 697.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 672.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 602.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 697.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 672.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 645.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 602.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,830 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 253.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.4130)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 224,044 lots, or 8.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,766 3,810 3,747 3,801 3,766 3,783 17 16,826 56,810
Jul-17 – – – 3,881 3,881 3,881 0 0 58
Sep-17 3,828 3,873 3,812 3,856 3,846 3,849 3 204,042 239,840
Nov-17 3,890 3,890 3,890 3,890 3,900 3,890 -10 2 22
Jan-18 3,865 3,915 3,860 3,897 3,893 3,898 5 3,104 19,256
Mar-18 – – – 3,963 3,963 3,963 0 0 10
May-18 3,973 4,000 3,972 3,992 3,986 3,987 1 70 748
Jul-18 – – – 3,998 3,997 3,998 1 0 4
Sep-18 – – – 4,013 4,013 4,013 0 0 6
Corn
Turnover: 1,298,812 lots, or 21.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,603 1,608 1,595 1,602 1,604 1,601 -3 88,278 294,864
Jul-17 1,619 1,623 1,609 1,613 1,615 1,615 0 94 1,442
Sep-17 1,630 1,639 1,621 1,636 1,633 1,632 -1 1,078,650 2,017,788
Nov-17 1,669 1,675 1,659 1,667 1,668 1,664 -4 146 2,120
Jan-18 1,672 1,679 1,665 1,675 1,677 1,672 -5 131,554 550,406
Mar-18 1,685 1,688 1,675 1,683 1,682 1,683 1 90 948
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,737,084 lots, or 48.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,842 2,877 2,833 2,871 2,828 2,853 25 101,312 316,430
Jul-17 2,822 2,850 2,808 2,850 2,819 2,839 20 716 1,930
Aug-17 2,818 2,858 2,818 2,856 2,821 2,846 25 84 564
Sep-17 2,789 2,838 2,783 2,836 2,779 2,809 30 1,558,500 2,448,010
Nov-17 2,815 2,841 2,813 2,841 2,811 2,819 8 64 118
Dec-17 2,847 2,847 2,847 2,847 2,834 2,847 13 2 400
Jan-18 2,817 2,868 2,812 2,865 2,809 2,843 34 76,372 318,698
Mar-18 2,842 2,858 2,842 2,844 2,821 2,851 30 34 66
Palm Oil
Turnover: 499,628 lots, or 26.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-17 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 0
May-17 5,578 5,666 5,578 5,660 5,614 5,628 14 20,590 88,212
Jun-17 5,646 5,646 5,644 5,644 5,716 5,644 -72 6 16
Jul-17 – – – 5,442 5,442 5,442 0 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,302 5,302 5,302 0 0 10
Sep-17 5,186 5,258 5,180 5,246 5,206 5,218 12 437,962 548,612
Oct-17 – – – 5,246 5,246 5,246 0 0 10
Nov-17 – – – 5,248 5,248 5,248 0 0 166
Dec-17 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 4
Jan-18 5,106 5,182 5,100 5,162 5,124 5,138 14 41,070 132,376
Feb-18 – – – 5,258 5,244 5,258 14 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,306 5,306 5,306 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 508,164 lots, or 30.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,786 5,836 5,780 5,820 5,838 5,816 -22 46,938 136,440
Jul-17 – – – 5,876 5,876 5,876 0 0 4
Aug-17 5,862 5,914 5,862 5,914 5,920 5,888 -32 4 34
Sep-17 5,902 5,962 5,890 5,956 5,950 5,936 -14 431,608 876,898
Nov-17 – – – 5,972 5,972 5,972 0 0 8
Dec-17 – – – 6,184 6,198 6,184 -14 0 10
Jan-18 6,060 6,120 6,046 6,114 6,104 6,094 -10 29,610 101,390
Mar-18 6,150 6,150 6,150 6,150 6,128 6,150 22 4 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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