Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 9-Apr 2-Apr 2016 Avg
Cotton Planted 6 4 5 6
Corn Planted 3 4 3
Sorghum Planted 18 15 15 15
Rice Planted 31 17 30 26
Rice Emerged 13 7 11 9
Sugar beets Planted 5 4 10
Oats Planted 33 28 37 41
Oats Emerged 26 25 26 31
Winter Wheat Headed 9 4 6
Spring Wheat Planted 5 12 11
Barley Planted 9 17 16
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 3 10 34 46 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 11 35 45 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 35 48 8
General Comments: Cotton futures were sharply higher after holding the low set on Friday. It was a big day for bullish traders after the breakdown from congestion n Friday. It seemed like short traders decided to cover before the USDA reports today and on the failure of prices to extend the Friday losses. The market is seeing that the US has mostly good conditions for planting and development. However, planting progress has been behind the normal pace for the early going due to recent rains. Enough rain has fallen now, so some dry weather would be favorable for fieldwork, but forecasts call for more showers this week. US farmers plan to plant much more Cotton than they did last year. Planting is underway and planted area should be very big. Export demand has remained strong and much stronger than expected by just about everyone. US mills still have yet to price a lot of on call purchases. The May fixations are getting done, but there are still a lot of July contracts open that should support that month in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get some precipitation today, then dry weather Wednesday and more rain starting Thursday. Temperatures should will average above normal. Texas will see the potential for heavy rains over the middle of the week, then dry weather again Friday and over the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal, but below normal with the storm system. The USDA average price is now 72.68 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 328,053 bales, from 327,782 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7460, 7400, and 7340 May, with resistance of 7550, 7610, and 7670 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly lower, although May found Support on spreads. The market is trying to extend recent grains as the weather remains dry in Florida, but weak demand is keeping a lid on prices. Dry weather in Florida has been the main reason for the buying interest. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees have lost blooms and the fruit is developing. Small fruit is now being reported everywhere. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss. The harvest has been very active. Early and Mid Oranges are moving mostly to processors, and this part of the harvest is winding down. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is very active.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Brazil should get episodes of scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 174.00, 186.00, and 194.00 May. Support is at 163.00, 159.00, and 155.00 May, with resistance at 169.00, 170.00, and 173.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower and are back inside the trading range seen for the last couple of weeks. Both markets still show the potential to work higher, but there has not been a trigger yet to created the needed buying interest. The world cash market remains Rather slow. There is no business being done in the physical market at these levels as prices are low for producers and differentials remain generally weak. Roasters remain the best buyers in futures but are not active at all in the cash market. Ideas are that Robusta supplies are tight once again, and that London has better chart patterns to promote a rally than New York. However, New york continues to show a generally sideways pattern and has refused chances to move a lot lower. The cash market in Central America shows little buying interest against moderate selling interest. Peru is also said to be offering good volumes. Vietnamese prices are now at or near record highs, and there does not seem to be much Robusta around from other sources, with both Brazil and Indonesia mostly out of the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.380 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 134.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather today, then chances for showers tomorrow, then dry weather again. Temperatures should average near normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 132.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 144.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2230 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower after trading both sides of unchanged. The daily charts show generally mixed trends. The price action after the news of potential new demand from the EU and India has been Rather disappointing, but the market is still showing the potential for a low to form in this area. The EU has short stocks as does India, and prices have been firm in both areas. The EU said it was studying the idea of imports, but the Indian government has approved the import of 500,000 tons of Sugar with no duty. The government there is finally reacting to the high prices in the domestic market caused by short production caused by the uneven monsoon last year. The amount authorized to import was at the low end of expectations. Trends remain down longer term on the charts despite the positive price action last week. The world situation would imply that production can recover after El Nino induced losses last year. However, there are indications that El Nino could return, and smaller crops might be produced in India once again. The weather service there is looking for a normal monsoon. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much dryer than normal in the Northeast. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather today and tomorrow, then chances for showers each day. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 988 contracts of Sugar 16 were posted against May delivery today.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1590 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1790 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 467.00, 458.00, and 452.00 August, and resistance is at 478.00, 480.00, and 485.00 August.
General Comments: Futures markets closed lower and made new lows for the move. Funds and other speculators were adding to short positions on ideas of big and increasing supplies. The chart patterns imply that a test of recent lows is likely. The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and is above last year in Ghana. Both countries ar experiencing moderate weather as rains have returned. Demand has been weak, but might start to improve soon as prices for Cocoa and products have turned much lower. Mostly good conditions are reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperature. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.963 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1930 and 1830 May. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1850 May, with resistance at 2010, 2060, and 2090 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1560 May. Support is at 1580, 1560, and 1540 May, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1710 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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