Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. April Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2016-17, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2016-17 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2015-2016
Corn 2,345 2,270-2,484 2,320 1,737
Soybeans 447 425-471 435 197
Wheat 1,152 1,125-1,200 1,129 976
2016-17
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,300 445 1,150
Allendale 2,340 448 1,154
DC Analysis 2,345 450 1,154
Doane 2,320 435 1,154
EDFMan Capital 2,345 435 1,154
Farm Futures 2,300 425 1,169
Futures INTL 2,345 430 1,160
Hueber Report 2,350 440 1,125
INTL FCStone 2,484 471 1,184
North Star 2,300 470 1,140
Sid Love Consulting 2,370 450 1,149
MaxYield 2,380 445 1,200
Price Group 2,320 444 1,129
Prime Ag 2,295 460 1,129
RJ O’Brien 2,410 434 1,158
US Commodities 2,380 458 1,150
Vantage RM 2,355 435 1,129
Western Milling 2,345 465 1,170
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,270 445 1,134

DJ April World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World 2016-17 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2015-16
Corn 222.1 219.6-225.2 220.7 210.9
Soybeans 84.2 83.2-85.8 82.8 76.6
Wheat 250.6 249.0-253.0 249.9 240.3
2016-17
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 222.0 85.8 251.0
Allendale 221.0 83.9 250.2
Doane N/A 85.0 251.0
EDFMan Capital 222.0 83.5 250.5
Farm Futures 222.0 83.5 249.0
Futures INTL 223.0 84.5 253.0
Hueber Report 221.5 83.2 249.5
INTL FCStone 225.2 85.8 251.3
MaxYield 222.5 84.0 250.5
Northstar 222.0 85.3 251.0
Prime-Ag 222.0 84.0 250.0
US Commodities 222.1 84.0 250.9
Western Milling 222.0 83.5 250.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 219.6 83.4 250.1

DJ April Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2016-17, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2015-16
Corn 92.5 91.0-94.0 91.5 67.0
Soybeans 110.0 109.0-111.6 108.0 96.5
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 93.50 110.50
Allendale 91.50 109.00
DC Analysis 93.00 111.00
Doane 91.50 110.00
EDF Man Capital 93.00 110.00
Farm Futures 94.00 111.00
Futures INTL 91.50 111.00
Hueber Report 91.00 109.00
INTL FCStone 93.31 111.56
MaxYield 92.50 110.00
North Star 92.50 109.50
Price Group 91.50 109.00
Prime Ag 93.00 109.00
US Commodities 93.50 109.50
Western Milling 92.00 111.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 92.00 109.50
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2015-16
Corn 37.8 37.2-39.0 37.5 29.0
Soybeans 56.0 55.0-57.0 55.5 56.8
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 39.00 56.50
Allendale 38.00 56.00
DC Analysis 37.50 56.00
Doane 37.50 56.00
EDF Man Capital 37.50 56.00
Farm Futures 38.00 56.50
Futures INTL 38.00 55.50
Hueber Report 37.20 56.00
INTL FCStone 37.50 56.00
MaxYield 38.50 56.00
North Star 38.00 55.50
Price Group 37.50 55.50
Prime Ag 38.00 56.00
US Commodities 37.50 56.00
Western Milling 38.00 57.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 37.50 55.00

Crop Progress
Date 9-Apr 2-Apr 2016 Avg
Cotton Planted 6 4 5 6
Corn Planted 3 4 3
Sorghum Planted 18 15 15 15
Rice Planted 31 17 30 26
Rice Emerged 13 7 11 9
Sugarbeets Planted 5 4 10
Oats Planted 33 28 37 41
Oats Emerged 26 25 26 31
Winter Wheat Headed 9 4 6
Spring Wheat Planted 5 12 11
Barley Planted 9 17 16

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 3 10 34 46 7
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 11 35 45 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 35 48 8

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 10
Source: USDA
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 06, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/06/2017 03/30/2017 04/07/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 73 439 220 32,458 30,656
CORN 1,170,380 1,487,930 1,122,094 34,515,057 20,770,819
FLAXSEED 294 1,909 24 27,055 4,666
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 200 0 13,293 3,146
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 155,910 138,420 181,140 3,899,052 6,239,526
SOYBEANS 832,957 627,511 387,062 47,773,675 42,175,923
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 8
WHEAT 641,365 572,947 340,892 22,475,910 17,155,567
Total 2,801,079 2,829,356 2,031,432 108,736,500 86,380,311
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Brazil April Soy and Corn Output Projections: Conab (Table)
By Rafael Mendes
(Bloomberg) —
The following table is a summary of grain estimates for 2016/17 crops, from government crop forecasting agency, Conab.
April March Feb. Last-yr –Projected y/y chg–
2017 2017 2017 crop Net Percent
Output (1000 tons):
Soy 110,162 107,615 105,558 95,435 14,727.1 +15.4%
Corn 91,469 88,969 87,409 66,531 24,937.9 +37.5%
All grains* 227,932 222,907 219,143 186,610 41,322.0 +22.1%
—————————————————————————–
Area Planted (1000 hectares):
Soy 33,711 33,879 33,776 33,252 459.4 +1.4%
Corn 17,077 16,772 16,515 15,923 1,154.6 +7.3%
All grains* 60,101 59,999 59,536 58,336 1,764.7 +3.0%
—————————————————————————–
Yield (kg/hectare):
Soy 3,268 3,176 3,125 2,870 397.7 +13.9%
Corn 5,356 5,305 5,293 4,178 1,177.8 +28.2%
All grains* 3,793 3,715 3,681 3,199 593.5 +18.6%
NOTES *’All grains’ category includes the grains listed above and also wheat, cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, sunflower, castor, sorgo, oats, canola, rye, barley and tritacale. Averages are used whenever Conab reports projections in minimum/ maximum format.
SOURCE: Conab Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento

BRIEF-China raises 2016/2017 corn, soybean imports estimates – Reuters News
10-Apr-2017 10:57:59 PM
April 11 (Reuters) – China’s Ministry of Agriculture says:
• China 2016/17 corn imports seen at 1.0 million tonnes versus previous forecast of 800,000 tonnes
• China 2016/17 corn consumption seen at 210.72 million tonnes versus previous forecast of 211.22 million tonnes
• China 2016/17 corn ending stocks seen at 5.11 million tonnes versus previous forecast of 4.41 million tonnes
• China 2016/17 soybean imports seen at 86.55 million tonnes versus previous forecast of 85.31 million tonnes
• China 2016/17 soybean consumption seen at 100.81 million tonnes versus previous forecast of 99.87 million tonnes
• China 2016/17 soybean balance seen at deficit of 1.89 million tonnes versus previous forecast deficit of 2.19 million tonnes

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher again yesterday as world prices hold firm. Improved weather conditions in the Great Plains and forecasts for more precipitation over the middle of the week could be improving yield potential. It is also raining a lot in the Midwest and there are some reports of disease starting to show up in the crops. Futures are in a short term trading range and are trying to form a bottom at the current time. US export demand has remained strong and should remain strong into the next harvest. There was more talk about some dry conditions in Europe and also in North Africa. The drier weather in North Africa could start to cause losses in yield potential, and the dry EU conditions could cause some yield losses soon. The cash markets have been slightly firmer. The Midwest should see chances for rain over the middle of this week after some big rains in some areas yesterday. World Wheat prices were stable, and US Wheat remains relatively cheap. Daily price trends suggest that both Chicago Wheat markets are in a range trade. Trends in Minneapolis are down, but are starting to hold at current levels.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see precipitation late in the week, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 425, 419, and 417 May, with resistance at 431, 435, and 441 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 417, 415, and 412 May, with resistance at 427, 429, and 436 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 514 and 498 May. Support is at 517, 516, and 513 May, and resistance is at 522, 528, and 533 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice were higher again in narrow range trading. It looks like some positions are being adjusted as the down side moves appear to have run their course. Speculators have been very short and are now being forced to cover part of these positions. The charts show that the market hit most swing targets for the initial surge higher and are now consolidating. Chart trends remain up. The lower than expected data from the Planting Intentions report has been the trigger for the move higher. Most of the planting and fieldwork has been reported from Louisiana and Texas until now, but all states except for California are showing progress. Progress is likely to be slower this week due to rainy weather in the Delta and near the Gulf Coast.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms today and tomorrow, then crier weather. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1014, 1005, and 1000 May, with resistance at 1032, 1040, and 1048 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed higher as the US weather market got started. Big rains were seen in the Midwest yesterday and more are expected this week. The planting pace was slow last week and is not likely to get any better this week. The season is still early, but the progress is already behind the five year average and well behind the progress at this time last year. Producers in just about all states have been affected by the weather. The market now waits for the release of the monthly supply and demand updates from USDA today, but these reports are not expected to show much change for Corn. Export demand overall remains strong and should be strong for several more months as South America is not currently in a position to offer. Better market conditions for that part of the world to offer should appear by late Summer when the Winter crop in Brazil is made and ready for harvest. Traders are looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 362, 358, and 354 May, and resistance is at 367, 371, and 375 May. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 212, 210, and 206 May, and resistance is at 222, 225, and 228 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed. The main weakness was in Soybean Oil. It moved lower in sympathy with Palm Oil and on ideas of bigger vegetable oil supplies in the world. Futures are trying to push through support areas on daily and weekly charts, but held the recent trading range in all three markets instead. The market remains under pressure longer term due to ideas of big production in South America. Brazil could produce a crop above 111 million tons and Argentina could produce a crop above 56 million tons. USDA might not show these big estimates later today, but should show increased production potential, especially for Brazil. Chinese buying has been less due to disease problems in that country. Total US export sales are now just above the forecast made by USDA in its monthly outlooks. USDA will be forced to increase export demand today due to the bigger than expected demand. Recent sales have been much reduced when compared to earlier in the season, but are probably at least as strong as many had expected for this time of year. Even so, there are plenty of Soybeans in the world that will need to be traded, so prices can generally remain under pressure without some kind of weather problem.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 937, 932, and 925 May, and resistance is at 954, 957, and 960 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 305.00, and 303.00 May, and resistance is at 311.00, 314.00, and 317.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3100 and 2880 May. Support is at 3110, 3090, and 3050 May, with resistance at 3200, 3220, and 3270 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed lower along with the weakness seen in world vegetable oils markets. May managed to close a little higher on spreads and a tight domestic cash market. Farmers are unwilling sellers, and demand from crusher and exporters is moderate. It is wet in the Eastern Prairies and there is some talk of planting delays. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term.. Palm Oil was higher in response to the positive export data released by the private sources. Prices staged a partial recovery from the bearish MPOB data seen open Monday. Production was much bigger than expected and ending stocks were above trade expectations. Some more selling is possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 482.00, 479.00, and 474.00 May, with resistance at 491.00, 493.00, and 497.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2540 and 2440 June. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 June, with resistance at 2640, 2700, and 2740 June.

MPOB Report:
Observation period : Mar
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Monday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.39 mil tonnes, Up 10.4%
Exports – 1.18 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Up 0.1%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.46 mil tonnes, Up 16.3%
Exports – 1.27 mil tonnes, Up 14.3%
Ending Stocks – 1.55 mil tonnes, Up 6.5%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.26 mil tonnes, Down 1.4%
Exports – 1.11 mil tonnes, Down 14.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Down 5.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Precipitation today and again about Thursday. Temperatures will average near normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 33 May 106 May 51 May 20-Jul minus 4 May
May 36 July 51 July 22-Jul
June 30-Jul 42 July 18-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April plus 28 May minus 30 May
May plus 28 May minus 30 May
June minus 23 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 10
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 489.10 up 3.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 504.70 up 0.60
2 Can 491.70 up 0.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 523.70 up 0.60
2 Can 510.70 up 0.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 173.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60
kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 677.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 650.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 605.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Apr 700.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May 677.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 650.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 605.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 655.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,890 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 255.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.4320)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 266,288 lots, or 10.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,780 3,792 3,751 3,772 3,749 3,776 27 22,172 71,178
Jul-17 3,799 3,799 3,799 3,799 3,851 3,799 -52 2 58
Sep-17 3,847 3,869 3,821 3,849 3,821 3,848 27 240,006 240,820
Nov-17 3,902 3,904 3,894 3,894 3,860 3,900 40 10 26
Jan-18 3,888 3,909 3,864 3,893 3,869 3,891 22 3,744 19,026
Mar-18 – – – 3,961 3,939 3,961 22 0 10
May-18 3,984 3,990 3,962 3,986 3,956 3,979 23 344 744
Jul-18 – – – 4,001 4,001 4,001 0 0 8
Sep-18 4,022 4,060 4,020 4,020 4,014 4,036 22 10 10
Corn
Turnover: 3,140,458 lots, or 51.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,633 1,639 1,602 1,606 1,625 1,616 -9 203,272 341,438
Jul-17 1,638 1,644 1,620 1,620 1,632 1,634 2 260 1,434
Sep-17 1,681 1,686 1,631 1,633 1,673 1,652 -21 2,663,586 2,070,226
Nov-17 1,699 1,705 1,671 1,671 1,693 1,682 -11 418 2,072
Jan-18 1,725 1,730 1,685 1,685 1,716 1,703 -13 272,720 554,580
Mar-18 1,727 1,731 1,692 1,693 1,721 1,707 -14 202 956
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,240,002 lots, or 34.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,810 2,816 2,792 2,810 2,778 2,802 24 134,478 410,240
Jul-17 2,791 2,796 2,774 2,795 2,771 2,783 12 52 1,290
Aug-17 2,782 2,794 2,777 2,794 2,786 2,786 0 56 562
Sep-17 2,763 2,768 2,745 2,762 2,751 2,757 6 1,049,786 2,468,820
Nov-17 2,790 2,790 2,779 2,790 2,778 2,787 9 14 54
Dec-17 2,811 2,821 2,811 2,821 2,818 2,813 -5 12 376
Jan-18 2,802 2,804 2,784 2,794 2,794 2,793 -1 55,578 335,824
Mar-18 2,804 2,815 2,791 2,803 2,790 2,803 13 26 26
Palm Oil
Turnover: 655,454 lots, or 34.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-17 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 0
May-17 5,616 5,662 5,568 5,652 5,736 5,628 -108 29,120 106,798
Jun-17 – – – 5,716 5,716 5,716 0 0 12
Jul-17 – – – 5,454 5,558 5,454 -104 0 4
Aug-17 5,310 5,310 5,306 5,306 5,422 5,308 -114 6 14
Sep-17 5,226 5,244 5,178 5,234 5,338 5,218 -120 585,982 598,330
Oct-17 – – – 5,246 5,410 5,246 -164 0 10
Nov-17 5,286 5,292 5,236 5,236 5,246 5,252 6 60 166
Dec-17 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 4
Jan-18 5,162 5,182 5,120 5,160 5,250 5,152 -98 40,286 124,482
Feb-18 – – – 5,272 5,372 5,272 -100 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,334 5,334 5,334 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 622,798 lots, or 37.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,860 5,912 5,844 5,892 5,894 5,884 -10 53,436 173,594
Jul-17 – – – 5,876 5,876 5,876 0 0 4
Aug-17 6,030 6,030 6,030 6,030 6,036 6,030 -6 2 24
Sep-17 5,950 6,034 5,950 6,004 5,990 5,996 6 547,510 870,594
Nov-17 – – – 6,018 6,018 6,018 0 0 8
Dec-17 – – – 6,244 6,238 6,244 6 0 10
Jan-18 6,130 6,194 6,118 6,164 6,150 6,160 10 21,850 94,524
Mar-18 – – – 6,160 6,160 6,160 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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