Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures were sharply lower on speculative selling based on chart patterns. The market is looking ahead to the next crop and is seeing that the US has mostly good conditions for planting and development. Enough rain has fallen now, so some dry weather would be favorable for fieldwork, but forecasts call for more showers this week. Trends have turned down again. US farmers plan to plant much more Cotton than they did last year. Planting is underway and planted area could be huge. The USDA reports showed planted area potential above 12.2 million acres and the world is expecting a very big crop this year. However, yield expectations are less, so the overall increase in production might not be all that much. Export demand has remained strong and much stronger than expected by just about everyone. US mills still have yet to price a lot of on call purchases, although many seem to be using the current weakness to fix prices. The May fixations are getting done, but there are still a lot of July contracts open that should support that month in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get some significant precipitation today and tomorrow, then dry weather. Temperatures should will average above normal. Texas will see the potential for heavy rains over the middle of the week. Temperatures will be above normal, but below normal with the storm system. The USDA average price is now 70.97 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 329,782 bales, from 329,622 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7320, 7270, and 6930 May. Support is at 7330, 7300, and 7240 May, with resistance of 7470, 7520, and 7550 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 325,125
: Positions :
: 113,725 18,166 67,038 52,201 213,997 74,093 8,550 307,057 307,752: 18,069 17,374
: Changes from: March 28, 2017 (Change in open interest: -4,481) :
: -11,019 2,179 751 8,731 -11,850 -1,210 1,749 -2,746 -7,170: -1,735 2,689
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.0 5.6 20.6 16.1 65.8 22.8 2.6 94.4 94.7: 5.6 5.3
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 155 79 110 60 67 27 14 292 225:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday and higher for the week. The market made a short term bottom early in the week and now has started to bounce higher. Dry weather in Florida seems to be the main reason for the buying interest. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees have lost blooms and the fruit is developing. Small fruit is now being reported everywhere. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss. The harvest has been very active. Early and Mid Oranges are moving mostly to processors, and this part of the harvest is winding down. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is very active.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. Showers are possible on Thursday and then temperatures should trend to below normal. Brazil should get episodes of scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 174.00, 186.00, and 194.00 May. Support is at 163.00, 159.00, and 155.00 May, with resistance at 169.00, 170.00, and 173.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 4, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,101 :
: Positions :
: 6,102 9,458 922 0 5 1,522 1,074 124 1,563 333 2,681 :
: Changes from: March 28, 2017 :
: 1,910 -470 61 0 0 -1,536 808 0 -12 51 395 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 40.4 62.6 6.1 0.0 0.0 10.1 7.1 0.8 10.3 2.2 17.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 21 17 4 0 . 10 6 4 10 12 15 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher and closed the week on a firm note. Both markets remain in a trading range and are seeing little trading interest. Both markets still show the potential to work higher. There is no business being done in the physical market at these levels as prices are low for producers and differentials remain generally weak. Roasters remain the best buyers in futures but are not active at all in the cash market. Ideas are that Robusta supplies are tight once again, and that London has better chart patterns to promote a rally than New York. However, New york continues to show a generally sideways pattern and has refused chances to move a lot lower. The cash market in Central America shows little buying interest against moderate selling interest. Peru is also said to be offering good volumes. Vietnamese prices are now at or near record highs, and there does not seem to be much Robusta around from other sources, with both Brazil and Indonesia mostly out of the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.374 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 134.44 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry weather today and tomorrow, then chances for showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 144.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2230 May.

DJ Coffee Prices Weakened Further in March, ICO Says
By David Hodari
LONDON– The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price slightly fell in March, thanks to high export levels and rising inventory levels.
The ICO composite indicator fell by 2.6% in March, to 134.07 U.S. cents a pound, down from 137.68 U.S. cents in February.
While inventory levels of robusta beans remained stable, arabica prices were under pressure during the month, the ICO report said.
Poor conilon and robusta harvests in Brazil and Vietnam did little to drain stocks from a market which remained well supplied, with export levels between October 2016 and February 2017 higher year-over-year.
In addition, importing countries’ inventories continued to grow.
With prospects looking increasingly strong for the 2017-18 crop, “the market currently lacks any strong signals to reverse from its current gradual decline,” the ICO said.
Robusta prices were last up 1.03% at $2,165.00 a ton, and arabica prices were up 0.25% at $1.38 a pound.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 238,154
: Positions :
: 47,883 45,180 56,290 84,125 119,937 38,133 8,447 226,432 229,855: 11,722 8,299
: Changes from: March 28, 2017 (Change in open interest: 10,550) :
: 1,520 2,305 3,623 4,920 3,418 260 1,605 10,322 10,950: 228 -400
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.1 19.0 23.6 35.3 50.4 16.0 3.5 95.1 96.5: 4.9 3.5
: Total Traders: 448 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 124 138 132 118 22 11 362 338:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/04/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
195,438 82,430 115,923 12,815 23,210 2,673
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 42.2% 59.3% 6.6% 11.9% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
165 52 52 17 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
53,725 6,499 17,241 1,282 5,817 19,206
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.5% 3.3% 8.8% 0.7% 3.0% 9.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 15 22 11 8 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,066 4,870
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.1% 2.5%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on follow through buying tied to news that the EU joined India in looking at importing Sugar to increase supplies. The EU has short stocks as does India, and prices have been firm in both areas. The EU said it was studying the idea, but India will move forward with imports. The Indian government has approved the import of 500,000 tons of Sugar with no duty. The government there is finally reacting to the high prices in the domestic market caused by short production caused by the uneven monsoon last year. Trends remain down longer term on the charts despite the positive price action last week. The world situation would imply that production can recover after El Nino induced losses last year. However, there are indications that El Nino could return, and smaller crops might be produced in India once again. The weather service there is looking for a normal monsoon. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much dryer than normal in the Northeast. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather today and tomorrow, then chances for showers each day. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1610, and 1590 May, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1730 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 463.00, and 460.00 May, and resistance is at 489.00, 492.00, and 503.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 983,158
: Positions :
: 158,235 121,389 226,364 322,815 527,068 199,033 31,076 906,447 905,896: 76,711 77,262
: Changes from: March 28, 2017 (Change in open interest: 12,494) :
: 2,646 20,079 6,126 5,019 -21,661 -1,962 5,179 11,829 9,722: 665 2,772
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 12.3 23.0 32.8 53.6 20.2 3.2 92.2 92.1: 7.8 7.9
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 66 85 78 74 21 12 214 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/04/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
95,439 56,234 68,829 10,481 7,468 2,402
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.9% 72.1% 11.0% 7.8% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
131 46 57 12 5 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,163 5,581 2,610 732 1,251 3,358
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.9% 5.8% 2.7% 0.8% 1.3% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 16 11 3 2 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,459 3,940
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 4.1%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures markets closed lower and turned short term trends down. Both markets closed lower for the week, with all of the losses coming on Friday. Funds and other speculators were adding to short positions on ideas of big and increasing supplies. The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and is above last year in Ghana. Both countries ar experiencing moderate weather as rains have returned. Demand has been weak, but might start to improve soon as prices for Cocoa and products have turned much lower. Mostly good conditions are reported in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 4.913 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1930 and 1830 May. Support is at 1970, 1920, and 1880 May, with resistance at 2060, 2090, and 2120 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1560 May. Support is at 1580, 1560, and 1540 May, with resistance at 1660, 1710, and 1730 May.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Apr 7
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for April 7, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 348 2,354.50
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 255 2,262.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 198 2,204.50
Ecuador 138 2,144.50
Sanchez f.a.q. 178 2,184.50
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.55 5,117.85
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.85 1,700.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 04, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 336,610
: Positions :
: 45,987 67,835 78,022 145,659 143,586 46,452 34,449 316,119 323,892: 20,490 12,718
: Changes from: March 28, 2017 (Change in open interest: -12) :
: -545 -3,630 -1,557 3,037 6,692 -3,478 -2,451 -2,543 -947: 2,531 935
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 20.2 23.2 43.3 42.7 13.8 10.2 93.9 96.2: 6.1 3.8
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 77 85 46 38 25 10 200 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/04/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
360,423 205,000 206,894 42,249 27,002 23,708
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.9% 57.4% 11.7% 7.5% 6.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 46 40 15 10 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,798 35,673 30,444 3,384 276 31,491
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8% 9.9% 8.4% 0.9% 0.1% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 29 14 14 7 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,349 4,935
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

 

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