Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton futures were mixed to lower in quiet trading. The move came despite a nother week of good export sales. The sales were less than in recent weeks, but still strong. Trends have turned down again as the market seems more interested in new crop production potential. US farmers plan to plant much more Cotton than they did last year. Planting is underway and planted area could be huge Progress got stalled this week due to a series of storms moving through most production areas, but most areas now have plenty of moisture for fieldwork and initial development. The USDA reports showed planted area potential above 12.2 million acres and the world is expecting a very big crop this year. However, yield expectations are less, so the overall increase in production might not be all that much. Export demand has remained strong and much stronger than expected by just about everyone. US mills still have yet to price a lot of on call purchases. These buyers will need to buy futures sooner or later to fix prices, and the number of contracts open through July is big.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get dry weather. Temperatures should will average above normal. Texas will see dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 71.85 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 329622 bales, from 329,209 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7420 and 7400 May. Support is at 7440, 7410, and 7330 May, with resistance of 7550, 7610, and 7670 May.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on follow through buying. The price action this week implies tht the recent down move might have run its course. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Florida remains very dry. Trees have lost blooms and the fruit is developing. Small fruit is now being reported everywhere. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss. The harvest has been very active. Early and Mid Oranges are moving mostly to processors, and this part of the harvest is winding down. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market and is very active.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. Showers are possible on Thursday and then temperatures should trend to below normal. Brazil should get episodes of scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 159.00, 155.00, and 151.00 May, with resistance at 165.00, 169.00, and 170.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed a little higher, and London closed slightly lower. Both markets remain in a trading range and are seeing little trading interest. There is no business being done in the physical market at these levels as prices are low for producers and differentials remain generally weak. Roasters remain the best buyers in futures but are not real active in the cash market. Ideas are that Robusta supplies are tight once again, and that London has better chart patterns to promote a rally than New York. The cash market in Central America shows little buying interest against moderate selling interest. Peru is also said to be offering good volumes. Vietnamese prices are now at or near record highs, and there does not seem to be much Robusta around from other sources, with both Brazil and Indonesia mostly out of the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.372 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.92 ct/lb. Brazil will get chances for showers through Friday, then drier weather over the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 143.00 and 144.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2120, 2090, and 2060 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2230 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as the EU joined India in looking at importing Sugar to increase supplies. The EU has short stocks as does India, and prices have been firm in both areas The EU said it was studying the idea, but India will move forward with imports. The Indian government has approved the import of 500,000 tons of Sugar with no duty. The government there is finally reacting to the high prices in the domestic market caused by short production caused by the uneven monsoon last year. The market still appears less concerned about near term supply tightness because of less than expected demand, but that might change as two exporters turn importers for the year. The world situation would imply that production can recover after El Nino induced losses last year. However, there are indications that El Nino could return, and smaller crops might be produced in India once again. The weather service there is looking for a normal monsoon. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much dryer than normal in the Northeast. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get chances for showers each day. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1570 May. Support is at 1590, 1560, and 1530 May, and resistance is at 1670, 1700, and 1720 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 450.00 May. Support is at 463.00, 460.00, and 457.00 May, and resistance is at 483.00, 489.00, and 492.00 May.
General Comments: Futures markets closed lower. Both markets are still in the trading ranges seen for the last week. The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and is above last year in Ghana, although not a record. Both countries ar experiencing moderate weather at this point in the dry season, with some showers now and without the extreme heat or Harmattan winds. Demand has been weak, but might start to improve soon as prices for Cocoa and products have turned much lower. Mostly good conditions are reported in Southeast Asia, but some producers have switched to other crops such as pepper as these producers look for better returns on their investments and work.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.916 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2040, and 2000 May, with resistance at 2190, 2220, and 2250 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1630, and 1620 May, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1760 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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