Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower despite strong weekly export sales as the market concentrated on the weather and improved crop development conditions in the Great Plains. US export demand has remained strong and should remain strong into the next harvest. There is talk now about some dry conditions in Europe and also in North Africa. The drier weather in North Africa could start to cause losses in yield potential. The cash markets have been slightly firmer as the US Dollar has been soft against the Russian Ruble. The Great Plains will start to turn drier after some recent rains. However, reports from the region indicate that conditions have shown generally good improvement. Some precipitation could return the next week. The Midwest should see chances for rain next week after a dry weekend and crop conditions should be good. World Wheat prices were stable, and US Wheat remains relatively cheap. Daily price trends suggest that all three Wheat markets are in a range trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some heavy precipitation on Sunday and Monday, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation next on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation on Friday and over the weekend, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 419, 417, and 416 May, with resistance at 431, 435, and 441 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 417, 415, and 412 May, with resistance at 427, 429, and 436 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 514 and 498 May. Support is at 520, 516, and 513 May, and resistance is at 528, 533, and 535 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice were little changed despite a solid export sales report. The charts show that the market hit most swing targets for the initial surge higher and are now consolidating. Chart trends remain up, and it could be that the market has finally found a lasting low. If so any correction lower should be short lived and small in distance. The lower than expected data from the Planting Intentions report has been the trigger for the move higher. Planting has stalled in many areas due to some storms moving through growing areas, and repo. Most of the planting and fieldwork has been reported from Louisiana and Texas until now. Mississippi and Arkansas might not get started in earnest until later this month, but fieldwork preparations have been active as weather permits. Drier weather is expected in all areas through the weekend, but more rain is expected next week The cash market is reported to be quiet and stable.
Overnight News: The Delta should turn drier though the weekend. More rain is possible early next week. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1026 May. Support is at 1005, 1000, and 994 May, with resistance at 1026, 1032, and 1040 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what was called fund selling. The selling developed despite a strong weekly export sales report as the trade expects increasing competition from South America starting late this Summer US producers are expected to sell n rallies, and it is harder now to push prices lower as most traders feel that the market is cheap enough before the crop actually gets planted. Plantings in the south have been stalled this week due to rains and storms that have been seen in the last couple of days. More precipitation is possible next week to keep field activities slow. Export demand overall remains strong and should be strong for several more months as South America is not currently in a position to offer. Better market conditions for that part of the world to offer should appear by late Summer when the Winter crop in Brazil is made and ready for harvest. Traders are looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 358, 354, and 351 May, and resistance is at 367, 371, and 375 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 219 May. Support is at 218, 215, and 212 May, and resistance is at 225, 228, and 231 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower. The market remains under pressure longer term due to reports of weaker basis levels in South America and as export sales have started to move lower on a weekly basis. However, the export sales report yesterday was at or above expectations, and total export sales are now just above the forecast made by USDA in its monthly outlooks. USDA will be forced to increase export demand nest week due to the bigger than expected demand. The weaker premiums quoted from Brazil and Argentina put prices from those origins below the US. Premiums in both countries have been more steady so far this week. There are also reports of less Chinese demand as crushed there might have overbought in the face of animal disease problems there. The weekly charts show down trends in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Soybean Oil could be starting a new down trend. South American offers are out there and Brazil exporters are selling and fixing prices. Argentine exports are also reported to be offering actively.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 937, 932, and 925 May, and resistance is at 948, 954, and 957 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 305.00, and 303.00 May, and resistance is at 311.00, 314.00, and 317.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3100 and 2880 May. Support is at 3130, 3090, and 3050 May, with resistance at 3200, 3220, and 3270 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed lower along with the price action in Chicago Funds and other speculators were good sellers. A relatively tight cash market kept Canola stronger s did Canadian Dollar weakness. Farmers are unwilling sellers, but demand from crusher and exporters as weakened as well. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term. Palm Oil was lower on ideas of increasing supplies nd decreasing demand. Traders were selling the market before the next round of MPOB data on Monday. Demand on the export side has been lackluster, but there are still people saying that the production is not all that strong. The trade expects increased production overall, but trees have been slow to recover. The trees are recovering and should start producing more in the next couple of months, but so far the increase has been less than expected. The weather has been good, but increasing seasonal monsoon rains could soon start to disrupt harvest progress.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 479.00, 474.00, and 470.00 May, with resistance at 491.00, 493.00, and 497.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2650, 2630, and 2600 June, with resistance at 2740, 2810, and 2840 June.

Trade Estimates for the MPOB Report:
Observation period : Mar
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Monday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.39 mil tonnes, Up 10.4%
Exports – 1.18 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Up 0.1%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.26 mil tonnes, Down 1.4%
Exports – 1.11 mil tonnes, Down 14.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Down 5.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Turning drier over the weekend, then precipitation early next week. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 34 May 102 May 51 May 21-Jul minus 4 May
May 37 July 51 July 25-Jul
June 31-Jul 40 July 21-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April plus 26 May minus 30 May
May plus 26 May minus 30 May
June plus 33 July minus 26 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 6
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 484.30 up 3.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 500.70 dn 0.60
2 Can 487.70 dn 0.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 519.70 dn 3.60
2 Can 506.70 dn 3.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 173.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Apr 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May 680.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 660.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 610.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May 680.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 660.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 610.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 645.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 670.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,930 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 266.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4315)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 221,452 lots, or 8.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,729 3,736 3,695 3,709 3,735 3,716 -19 37,812 89,626
Jul-17 3,789 3,789 3,789 3,789 3,779 3,789 10 2 56
Sep-17 3,783 3,797 3,749 3,763 3,791 3,769 -22 178,010 229,332
Nov-17 3,834 3,834 3,821 3,821 3,856 3,827 -29 10 32
Jan-18 3,821 3,836 3,792 3,804 3,835 3,809 -26 5,316 18,560
Mar-18 – – – 3,878 3,904 3,878 -26 0 10
May-18 3,925 3,943 3,905 3,905 3,951 3,920 -31 290 812
Jul-18 – – – 3,965 3,996 3,965 -31 0 8
Sep-18 3,952 4,010 3,930 3,930 3,965 3,965 0 12 16
Corn
Turnover: 2,163,824 lots, or 36.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,629 1,640 1,617 1,620 1,625 1,627 2 202,412 448,834
Jul-17 1,640 1,642 1,622 1,623 1,635 1,634 -1 154 1,352
Sep-17 1,685 1,693 1,665 1,669 1,677 1,676 -1 1,815,498 2,010,088
Nov-17 1,718 1,718 1,693 1,695 1,705 1,698 -7 60 1,820
Jan-18 1,728 1,735 1,714 1,715 1,726 1,721 -5 145,510 518,784
Mar-18 1,741 1,741 1,722 1,730 1,740 1,733 -7 190 544
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,609,220 lots, or 44.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,780 2,786 2,750 2,757 2,763 2,768 5 233,872 525,096
Jul-17 2,770 2,770 2,735 2,748 2,773 2,754 -19 194 1,424
Aug-17 2,754 2,757 2,750 2,750 2,776 2,752 -24 16 552
Sep-17 2,755 2,759 2,723 2,729 2,753 2,737 -16 1,305,006 2,406,850
Nov-17 2,810 2,812 2,759 2,759 2,784 2,785 1 38 56
Dec-17 2,796 2,807 2,796 2,800 2,815 2,804 -11 28 376
Jan-18 2,801 2,805 2,771 2,774 2,798 2,784 -14 70,062 334,590
Mar-18 2,795 2,795 2,782 2,782 2,801 2,788 -13 4 14
Palm Oil
Turnover: 636,330 lots, or 34.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-17 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 0
May-17 5,770 5,800 5,704 5,756 5,776 5,772 -4 49,876 123,146
Jun-17 5,730 5,764 5,686 5,686 5,726 5,716 -10 8 12
Jul-17 – – – 5,558 5,566 5,558 -8 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,422 5,422 5,422 0 0 8
Sep-17 5,420 5,426 5,286 5,350 5,406 5,368 -38 553,476 547,502
Oct-17 – – – 5,384 5,384 5,384 0 0 10
Nov-17 5,406 5,406 5,404 5,404 5,432 5,404 -28 6 122
Dec-17 – – – 5,392 5,418 5,392 -26 0 4
Jan-18 5,332 5,344 5,212 5,264 5,328 5,280 -48 32,964 111,108
Feb-18 – – – 5,402 5,450 5,402 -48 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,364 5,412 5,364 -48 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 705,582 lots, or 42.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,956 5,964 5,820 5,872 5,944 5,894 -50 94,240 246,578
Jul-17 – – – 5,966 6,016 5,966 -50 0 4
Aug-17 6,050 6,050 6,010 6,010 6,044 6,032 -12 16 22
Sep-17 6,044 6,050 5,894 5,946 6,044 5,972 -72 589,768 844,360
Nov-17 5,996 5,996 5,996 5,996 6,124 5,996 -128 2 8
Dec-17 – – – 6,220 6,352 6,220 -132 0 10
Jan-18 6,210 6,210 6,060 6,106 6,206 6,130 -76 21,556 93,694
Mar-18 – – – 6,160 6,236 6,160 -76 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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