Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Food Makers Push For Chicago As Global Food Hub — Market Talk
17:46 ET – Food and agriculture companies based in Chicago met today to discuss efforts to bring in more businesses, as well as law firms, banks and marketing agencies that support the food sector. “We want to invest in food and beverage manufacturing and double down here,” said Theresa Mintle, CEO of Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce, at the kick-off meeting for the Chicagoland Food & Beverage Network. Recently, Conagra (CAG) and Kraft Heinz (KHC) moved to downtown Chicago, while start-ups have also launched in Chicago. Mike Loquercio, co-chairman of the group, argued that “there is no other location in North America that offers the full package,” for the food industry. Chicago is geographically appealing, has business and technology resources, education, and an available workforce, says Loquercio. (annie.gasparro@wsj.com)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed and little changed after not showing much movement through the day. USDA issued its first crop progress and condition reports of the year on Monday. The reports showed that the condition of the crop is behind last year, but conditions are better than what was seen in recent state reports. The precipitation seen in the Great Plains last week has helped overall condition. Traders will now go back to keeping a close eye on the Great Plains weather and the prices in the Black Sea. The Great Plains swill start to turn drier after some recent rains. However, reports from the region indicate that conditions have shown generally good improvement. Mostly good weather is reported in other northern hemisphere countries. The Midwest should see chances for rain today and tomorrow and then next week and crop conditions should be good. World Wheat prices were stable to lower, and US Wheat remains as cheap as any in the world market right now, although maybe not the cheapest anymore. Daily price trends suggest that all three Wheat markets are in a range trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some heavy precipitation today and tomorrow, then dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation today and tomorrow, then dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 437, 448, and 476 May. Support is at 425, 419, and 417 May, with resistance at 435, 441, and 443 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 411 May. Support is at 417, 415, and 412 May, with resistance at 425, 429, and 436 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 525, 514, and 498 May. Support is at 526, 522, and 520 May, and resistance is at 535, 538, and 541 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed in consolidation trading. Chart trends remain up, and it could be that the market has finally found a lasting low. The lower than expected data from the Planting Intentions report has been the trigger for the move higher. The crop progress report showed very good progress as farmers have been active. Planting continues in areas near the Gulf Coast amid very good conditions, and reports from Texas say that planting there is very active. It is possible that planted area not drop that much in both Louisiana and Texas due to the better conditions right now, although USDA showed a significant drop in intentions in Texas. Mississippi and Arkansas might not get started in earnest until later this month, but fieldwork preparations have been active as weather permits. The cash market is reported to be quiet and stable inside the US.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for showers and rains today. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1026 May. Support is at 994, 990, and 986 May, with resistance at 1021, 1023, and 1032 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 5
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.57 8.51 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.06 8.92 0.00
Brokens 8.19 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday as speculative buyers did not show. There were reports of weaker world prices as conditions in South America are generally good. However, the best offer is still coming from the US. The charts show that Corn is preparing for a move at this time. It appears that producers are waiting for a rally before selling again. Export demand overall remains strong and should be strong for several more months as South America is not currently in a position to offer. Better market conditions for that part of the world to offer should appear by late Summer when the Winter crop in Brazil is made and ready for harvest. Ethanol demand has also been good, and there will be new demand data released later today. Traders are looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 371 May. Support is at 361, 358, and 354 May, and resistance is at 367, 371, and 375 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 219 May. Support is at 222, 220, and 218 May, and resistance is at 228, 231, and 236 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed little changed, but generally a little lower.. The market remains under pressure due to reports of weaker basis levels in South America and as export sales have started to move lower on a weekly basis. The weaker cash premiums suggest that Soybeans are now more available and that the competition for world sales will be more intense. The weaker premiums quoted from Brazil and Argentina put prices from those origins below the US. Premiums n both countries have been more steady so far this week. There are also reports of less Chinese demand as crushed there might have overbought in the face of animal disease problems there. China returns from holiday today, and the traders there will react to more reports of bird flu and some new deaths to humans caused by the disease. The weekly charts show down trends in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. South American offers are out there and Brazil exporters are selling and fixing prices. Argentine exports are also reported to be offering actively. Production expectations are high for both countries and seem to be getting higher. Many analysts suggest that the down side potential for Soybeans prices could be extreme this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 937, 932, and 925 May, and resistance is at 954, 957, and 960 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 307.00, 305.00, and 303.00 May, and resistance is at 311.00, 314.00, and 317.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3100 and 2880 May. Support is at 3130, 3090, and 3050 May, with resistance at 3220, 3270, and 3320 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed slightly higher in quiet trading. Speculators were the best sellers despite a weaker Canadian Dollar. A relatively tight cash market kept Canola better supported than Soybeans. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term. Palm Oil was higher on outside market price action. Demand on the export side has been lackluster, but there are still people saying that the production is not all that strong. The trade expects increased production overall, but trees have been slow to recover. The trees are recovering and should start producing more in the next couple of months, but so far the increase has been less than expected. The weather has been good, but increasing seasonal monsoon rains could soon start to disrupt harvest progress.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 479.00, 474.00, and 470.00 May, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 493.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2540 June, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2810 June.

Trade Estimates for the MPOB Report:
Observation period : Mar
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Monday, 10 Apr
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.39 mil tonnes, Up 10.4%
Exports – 1.18 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Up 0.1%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.26 mil tonnes, Down 1.4%
Exports – 1.11 mil tonnes, Down 14.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.46 mil tonnes, Down 5.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation for much of the week, then turning drier over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 31-Jul 98 May 51 May 20-Jul minus 4 May
May 35 July 51 July 20-Jul
June 30-Jul 40 July 22-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
April plus 28 May minus 34 May
May plus 25 May minus 34 May
June plus 29 July minus 31 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 4
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 470.31 up 9.19
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 496.50 up 1.00
2 Can 483.50 up 1.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.50 up 1.00
2 Can 505.50 up 1.00
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 173.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 712.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
May 687.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 665.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 625.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 612.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Apr 712.50 +16.00 Unquoted – –
May 687.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 665.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 625.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 612.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 660.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 677.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,970 +70.firefox00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 280.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.4300)

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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