Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton futures closed higher on Friday in reversal trading. It was a strong positive reaction to what appeared to be a bearish plantings intentions report. The USDA reports showed planted area potential above 12.2 million acres against the average trade guess of 11.4 million acres. The strong reaction suggests that many traders had anticipated much bigger planted area intentions. Export demand has remained strong and much stronger than expected by just about everyone. Unexpected buying by China has supplemented strong buying by Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Buying is also seen from India and Pakistan to cover short term needs after reduced crops last year. These two countries are now said to be looking at Australian Cotton for further imports. US mills still have yet to price a lot of on call purchases. These buyers will need to buy futures sooner or later to fix prices, and the number of contracts open through July is big.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get chances for showers and rains every few days, with best amounts and coverage on today and tomorrow and about Thursday. Temperatures should will average above normal after a below normal day today. Texas will see showers tomorrow, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 74.20 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 323,149 bales, from 322,789 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7570, 7510, and 7420 May. Support is at 7650, 7600, and 7580 May, with resistance of 7820, 7860, and 7890 May.

DJ USDA Prospective Plantings: U.S. Upland/All Cotton-Mar 31
Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State,
and United States , 2015-2017
====================================================================
Type Area Planted
and ========================================================
State 2015 2016 2017 /1 2017/2016
====================================================================
========== 1,000 Acres ======== Percent
Upland
US 8,422.0 9,880.0 12,001.0 121
Amer-Pima
US 158.5 194.5 232.0 119
All
AL 315.0 345.0 430.0 125
AZ 106.5 134.5 166.0 123
AR 210.0 380.0 500.0 132
CA 164.0 221.0 275.0 124
FL 85.0 102.0 85.0 83
GA 1,130.0 1,180.0 1,300.0 110
KS 16.0 32.0 56.0 175
LA 115.0 140.0 190.0 136
MS 320.0 435.0 550.0 126
MO 185.0 280.0 285.0 102
NM 42.0 55.0 59.0 107
NC 385.0 280.0 340.0 121
OK 215.0 305.0 470.0 154
SC 235.0 190.0 230.0 121
TN 155.0 255.0 300.0 118
TX 4,817.0 5,667.0 6,917.0 122
VA 85.0 73.0 80.0 110
US 8,580.5 10,074.5 12,233.0 121
===================================================================
1/ Intended plantings in 2017 as indicated by reports from farmers.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 329,606
: Positions :
: 124,744 15,988 66,287 43,469 225,847 75,303 6,800 309,803 314,922: 19,803 14,684
: Changes from: March 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: 5,669) :
: 1,551 1,844 4,046 908 -1,788 -473 1,494 6,032 5,595: -363 74
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.8 4.9 20.1 13.2 68.5 22.8 2.1 94.0 95.5: 6.0 4.5
: Total Traders: 333 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 155 70 100 56 66 27 11 286 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ collapsed and pushed to new lows for the move and new lows for the last several months. It was a complete reversal of trade from the last couple of weeks. It now appears that the market can continue to move lower now for the next few weeks until buying interest surfaces before the hurricane season that starts in June. The market remains in a bullish supply market mode, with less and less domestic demand hurting any upside potential. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Florida remains very dry. Trees are in bloom in all areas of the state, and petals are starting to drop in some areas as fruit is forming. Good rains are needed for the bloom and initial fruit development. Irrigation is being heavily used to prevent loss. The harvest has been very active. Early and Mid Oranges are moving mostly to processors. The Valencia harvest is moving to processors and into the fresh market. Major freezes in southern Europe this Winter have damaged the citrus production. Ideas are that losses are extensive, but no one has quantified total losses yet. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition. Brazil imports have arrived and have provided some space for juice producers that was needed due to the reduced Florida production this year.
Overnight News: Florida should see mostly dry weather and mostly below normal temperatures. Brazil should get episodes of scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 152.00 May. Support is at 154.00, 152.00, and 149.00 May, with resistance at 162.00, 165.00, and 169.00 May.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Mar 31
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 3/25/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
3/25/2017 3/26/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 181.72 247.20 -26.5%
Retail/Institutional 7.50 7.60 -1.3%
Total 189.22 254.81 -25.7%
Pack
Bulk 4.36 5.29 -17.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.60 1.47 9.3%
Total Pack 5.96 6.76 -11.8%
Reprocessed -3.55 -3.58 0.9%
Pack from Fruit 2.41 3.18 -24.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.01 -0.27 97.1%
Imports – Foreign 4.48 12.58 -64.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.70 0.29 100+%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.01 – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – 100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.04 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 187.71 261.56 -28.2%
Retail/Institutional 9.10 9.07 0.4%
Total 196.81 270.63 -27.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.28 4.55 -6.0%
Exports 0.44 1.22 -64.4%
Total (Bulk) 4.72 5.78 -18.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.25 1.82 -31.2%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.25 1.82 -31.2%
Total Movement 5.97 7.60 -21.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 182.99 255.79 -28.5%
Retail/Institutional 7.85 7.25 8.4%
Ending Inventory 190.84 263.03 -27.4%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
25-Mar-17 26-Mar-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Pack
Bulk 96.32 118.79 -18.9%
Retail/Institutional 36.61 40.70 -10.1%
Total Pack 132.93 159.50 -16.7%
Reprocessed -84.73 -94.21 10.1%
Pack from Fruit 48.20 65.28 -26.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -3.15 -0.88 -100+%
Imports – Foreign 101.94 91.78 11.1%
Domestic Receipts 2.88 7.90 -63.6%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.71 0.13 100+%
from Non-Reporting Entit 2.01 4.04 -50.3%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.36 1.53 -76.4%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 328.57 410.53 -20.0%
Retail/Institutional 43.39 48.52 -10.6%
Total 371.96 459.05 -19.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 111.93 127.76 -12.4%
Domestic 33.65 26.99 24.7%
Exports 145.58 154.74 -5.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 35.54 41.27 -13.9%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 35.54 41.27 -13.9%
Total Movement 181.12 196.02 -7.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 182.99 255.79 -28.5%
Retail/Institutional 7.85 7.25 8.4%
Ending Inventory 190.84 263.03 -27.4%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,101 :
: Positions :
: 4,192 9,928 861 0 5 3,058 266 124 1,575 282 2,286 :
: Changes from: March 21, 2017 :
: -429 -69 -4 0 0 251 61 -13 -205 25 -37 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.7 70.4 6.1 0.0 0.0 21.7 1.9 0.9 11.2 2.0 16.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 18 17 4 0 . 16 . 4 7 16 15 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed little changed again on Friday. The charts show that the market is trying to form a low once again and seems to be looking for a trigger to make a move at this time. There is no business being done in the physical market at these levels as prices are low for producers and differentials remain generally weak. Roasters remain the best buyers in futures but are not real active in the cash market. Ideas are that Robusta supplies are tight once again, and that London has better chart patterns to promote a rally than New York. The cash market in Central America shows little buying interest against moderate selling interest. Peru is also said to be offering good volumes, but the flooding there might be interrupting shipments as it has life in general. Vietnamese prices are now at or near record highs, and there does not seem to be much Robusta around from other sources, with both Brazil and Indonesia mostly out of the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.361 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.93 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather today and tomorrow, then increasing chances for showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 137.00, 130.00, and 126.00 May. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 May, and resistance is at 140.00, 144.00 and 147.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2120, and 2090 May, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2230 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 227,604
: Positions :
: 46,364 42,876 52,668 79,206 116,519 37,873 6,843 216,110 218,905: 11,494 8,699
: Changes from: March 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: 9,894) :
: -3,007 7,142 8,031 7,269 -2,734 -2,888 -2,940 9,406 9,500: 488 394
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.4 18.8 23.1 34.8 51.2 16.6 3.0 95.0 96.2: 5.0 3.8
: Total Traders: 445 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 136 125 138 132 114 22 8 359 332:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/28/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
193,875 78,269 113,929 12,542 23,203 2,615
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 40.4% 58.8% 6.5% 12.0% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
167 51 52 18 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
44,265 5,935 15,488 11,518 5,397 22,641
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.8% 3.1% 8.0% 5.9% 2.8% 11.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 15 21 11 11 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,538 4,667
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 2.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. The short term trend direction remains down and weekly charts show that the market moved to new lows for the move. Wire reports indicate that Brazil producers joined speculators as the best sellers. The cyclone in Australia has damaged Sugarcane crops in Queensland, but damage estimates are pending. The market is no longer appears concerned about near term supply tightness because of less than expected demand. India especially has been out of the market. It had been expected to be a strong buyer due to reduced sugarcane production last year due to the neven monsoon. The world situation would imply that production can recover after El Nino induced losses last year. However, there are indications that El Nino could return, and smaller crops might be produced in India once again. The weather service there is looking for a normal monsoon. Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South areas. It remains much drier than normal in the Northeast. Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather today and tomorrow, then increasing chances for showers. Temperatures should average near to to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1640 and 1570 May. Support is at 1660, 1650, and 1620 May, and resistance is at 1700, 1750, and 1800 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 475.00 and 450.00 May. Support is at 475.00, 472.00, and 469.00 May, and resistance is at 494.00, 497.00, and 503.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 970,664
: Positions :
: 156,097 101,311 221,369 316,157 547,598 200,995 25,897 894,618 896,175: 76,046 74,490
: Changes from: March 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: 18,064) :
: 4,210 14,851 1,092 9,956 -1,262 -512 -734 14,745 13,947: 3,319 4,116
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 10.4 22.8 32.6 56.4 20.7 2.7 92.2 92.3: 7.8 7.7
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 65 83 76 72 21 13 210 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/28/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,249 57,184 71,617 9,386 5,902 4,207
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.2% 72.9% 9.6% 6.0% 4.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
128 48 57 12 5 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,477 5,035 3,402 824 1,003 3,832
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 5.1% 3.5% 0.8% 1.0% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 16 13 3 2 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,936 3,250
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 3.3%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures markets closed a little lower. Supplies still appear to be increasing but demand remains weak. The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and is above last year in Ghana, although not a record. Both countries ar experiencing moderate weather at this point in the dry season, with some showers now and without the extreme heat or Harmattan winds. Demand has been weak, but might start to improve soon as prices for Cocoa and products have turned much lower. Mostly good conditions are reported in Southeast Asia, but some producers have switched to other crops such as pepper as these producers look for better returns on their investments and work.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are possible. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.814 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2000 and 1830 May. Support is at 2060, 2040, and 2000 May, with resistance at 2120, 2190, and 2220 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 and 1610 May. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1620 May, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1760 May.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Mar 31
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for March 31, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 348 2,445.50
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 253 2,350.50
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 205 2,303.00
Ecuador 120 2,218.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 160 2,258.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.51 5,265.98
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.87 1,825.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 336,622
: Positions :
: 46,532 71,465 79,579 142,621 136,895 49,930 36,900 318,662 324,838: 17,959 11,783
: Changes from: March 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: -979) :
: -2,459 -8,307 302 3,075 6,601 399 1,052 1,316 -352: -2,295 -627
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 21.2 23.6 42.4 40.7 14.8 11.0 94.7 96.5: 5.3 3.5
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 82 85 46 40 23 11 199 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 03/28/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
358,181 204,070 199,223 43,880 31,178 22,502
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.0% 55.6% 12.3% 8.7% 6.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
142 46 39 13 10 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,611 29,128 32,290 3,119 5,753 33,566
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 8.1% 9.0% 0.9% 1.6% 9.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 23 14 12 10 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,144 4,542
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.3%

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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