Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2017 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 2016 Dec. 2016
Corn 8,551 8,280-8,900 7,822 12,384
Soybeans 1,679 1,627-1,800 1,531 2,895
Wheat 1,622 1,417-1,721 1,372 2,073
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 8,650 1,660 1,625
Agrivisor 8,470 1,675 1,660
Allendale 8,651 1,734 1,721
CHS Hedging 8,280 1,650 1,625
DC Analysis 8,590 1,677 1,632
Doane 8,395 1,675 1,618
EDFMan Capital 8,370 1,700 1,560
Farm Futures 8,548 1,695 1,614
Futures INTL 8,583 1,665 1,624
Hueber Report 8,492 1,627 1,417
INTL FCStone 8,346 1,634 1,644
Linn Group 8,466 1,652 1,624
Sid Love Consulting 8,400 1,650 1,654
MaxYield 8,900 1,800 1,600
Northstar 8,715 1,640 1,620
Prime-Ag 8,600 1,650 1,650
RJ O’Brien 8,630 1,701 1,627
US Commodities 8,572 1,640 1,628
Vantage RM 8,670 1,712 1,660
Western Milling 8,519 1,716 1,619
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,721 1,713 1,636
AVERAGE 8,551 1,679 1,622
USDA Mar. 2016 7,822 1,531 1,372
USDA Dec. 2016 12,384 2,895 2,073

DJ Survey: 2017 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2016
Corn 91.034 89.7-92.5 94.004
Soybeans 88.128 85.9-90.2 83.433
All Wheat 46.059 44.2-48.2 50.154
Winter Wheat 32.388 32.0-33.0 36.137
Spring Wheat 11.270 9.9-12.2 11.605
Durum Wheat 2.145 2.0-2.5 2.412
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 92.0 88.0 45.4 32.2 11.0 2.2
Agrisource 89.7 90.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Agrivisor 90.3 88.1 45.6 32.2 11.4 2.0
Allendale 90.0 88.8 46.0 32.7 11.2 2.0
CHS Hedging 90.0 88.5 45.8 N/A N/A N/A
DC Analysis 91.2 87.5 45.7 32.4 11.3 2.0
Doane 90.9 89.3 45.9 32.4 11.5 2.0
EDFMan Capital 90.5 88.5 46.8 32.3 12.0 2.5
Farm Futures 90.3 89.0 45.8 32.4 11.3 2.2
Futures INTL 91.3 87.3 46.7 32.5 11.9 2.4
Hueber Report 90.3 88.0 45.9 32.4 11.2 2.3
INTL FCStone 91.6 87.3 44.9 32.0 9.9 2.3
Linn Group 91.5 88.2 46.5 32.3 12.2 2.0
Sid Love Consultin 91.0 88.0 45.8 32.4 11.4 2.0
MaxYield 91.5 85.9 48.2 N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 90.8 89.2 44.2 32.0 10.2 2.0
Prime-Ag 92.5 87.5 47.0 N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 91.0 89.0 45.6 32.5 11.0 2.1
US Commodities 92.1 89.1 45.7 N/A N/A N/A
Vantage RM 91.0 87.0 46.5 33.0 11.3 2.2
Western Milling 91.0 88.0 46.2 32.6 11.5 2.1
Zaner Ag Hedge 92.2 86.4 47.1 N/A N/A N/A
AVERAGE 91.034 88.128 46.059 32.388 11.270 2.145
USDA 2016 94.004 83.433 50.154 36.137 11.605 2.412

Price Group Estimates of Major U.S. Planting Levels*
USDA Ag Forum Price Change
15/16 16/17 17/18 E- 17/18 vs. 2015/16

Corn 88.00 94.00 90.00 90.28 -3.724
Beans 82.65 83.43 88.00 88.30 4.867
Sprg Wht 13.37 11.61 11.52 11.35 -0.255
Durum 1.95 2.41 2.10 2.08 -0.337
Winter 39.68 36.14 32.38 32.33 -3.807
All Wheat 55.00 50.15 46.00 45.76 -4.394
Oats# 3.09 2.83 2.75 2.92 0.092
Barley# 3.62 3.05 2.85 2.90 -0.152
Sorghum# 8.46 6.69 6.10 6.30 -0.390
All Cotton 8.58 10.07 11.50 11.45 1.376
Rice 2.63 3.15 2.60 2.65 -0.500
Total 252.02 253.39 249.80 250.56 -2.83
* millions of acres #AG F 11.7 mln aggrete for these crops

DJ USDA Hogs And Pigs: U.S. Inventory, By Class, Weight-Mar 30
* * *
Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group,
and Quarter, United States, 2016-2017
============================================================================= 2017
Item 2016 2017 as a % 2016
=============================================================================
———– 1,000 Head ———– Percent
March 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 68,124 70,976 104
Kept for breeding 5,980 6,068 101
Market 62,144 64,908 104
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 19,897 20,617 104
50-119 pounds 17,198 17,902 104
120-179 pounds 13,819 14,570 105
180 pounds and over 11,229 11,819 105
June 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 69,281
Kept for breeding 5,979
Market 63,302
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,356
50-119 pounds 18,198
120-179 pounds 13,291
180 pounds and over 11,456
September 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 71,886
Kept for breeding 6,016
Market 65,870
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,215
50-119 pounds 19,276
120-179 pounds 13,665
180 pounds and over 11,713
December 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 71,500
Kept for breeding 6,090
Market 65,410
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,882
50-119 pounds 18,037
120-179 pounds 13,831
180 pounds and over 12,660
=============================================================================
1/ May not add due to rounding.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower. Ideas are that the rains forecast for the Great Plains will improve crops, and mostly good weather is reported in other northern hemisphere countries. Meanwhile, USDA will show reduced Winter Wheat area again, and some fear that Spring Wheat area will be less as well. The rains could help stabilize crop ratings in states from Kansas and Colorado to Oklahoma and Texas. Crop reports from the state departments of agriculture showed deterioration last week. The Midwest should see chances for rain every few days through next week and crop conditions should be good. Many areas have seen beneficial rains this week, but far southwestern areas have missed out. World Wheat prices were stable, and US Wheat remains as cheap as any in the world market right now. Daily price trends are down in both Chicago markets, but Minneapolis is still in a range trade. The charts suggest that futures could bear near some downside objectives at this time. The weather patterns appear to be changing in a way that will allow for better rain chances in the driest areas. The southern and eastern Midwest saw some improvement when a cold front brought some beneficial precipitation to growing areas last week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some heavy precipitation today and over the weekend.. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation every few days. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 419, 416, and 410 May, with resistance at 427, 429, and 433 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 411 May. Support is at 417, 412, and 409 May, with resistance at 421, 427, and 429 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 537, 532, and 528 May, and resistance is at 549, 552, and 555 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower on choppy trading before the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. A strong export sales report provided some buying interest, but most are just waiting to see what USDA has to day later today. The chart patterns show that prices remain in a longer term trading range and that a bottom is forming. Speculators are caught with big short positions and might be forced to cover soon.. The planting intentions report is expected to show reduced planted area in line with recent USDA Outlook Conference estimates. Planting continues in areas near the Gulf Coast amid very good conditions, and reports from Texas say that planting there is very active. Yesterday was quiet due to rains. It is possible that planted area not drop that much in both Louisiana and Texas due to the better conditions right now. Mississippi and Arkansas might not get started until next month, but fieldwork preparations have been active as weather permits. Big reductions in planted area are possible in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for showers and rains today and tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures should trend to near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 970, 964, and 959 May, with resistance at 990, 995, and 1000 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures were lower in trading before the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. The trade expects big current stocks and enough planted area to retain big supplies for the foreseeable future. The export sales report was within expectations, but less than the previous few weeks. It appears that producers are waiting for a rally before selling again. Export demand overall remains very strong and should remains strong for several more months as South America is not currently in a position to offer. Better market conditions for the region to offer should appear by late Summer when the Winter crop in Brazil is made and ready for harvest. Ethanol demand has also been good, but the move by Brazil to start offering sugar based Ethanol into the world market could undercut some US demand. Traders are looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 354, 351, and 349 May, and resistance is at 360, 363, and 365 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 219 May. Support is at 225, 222, and 220 May, and resistance is at 231, 236, and 237 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling and on reports of weaker basis levels in South America and as export sales started to move lower. The weaker cash premiums suggest that Soybeans are now more available and that the competition for world sales will be more intense. The weaker premiums quoted from Brazil and Argentina put prices from those origins below the US. There are also reports of less Chinese demand.. Most appear to be waiting for the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. The weekly charts show down trends in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. South American offers are out there and Brazil exporters are selling and fixing prices. Argentine exports are also reported to be offering actively. Production expectations are high for both countries and seem to be getting higher. Many analysts suggest that the down side potential for Soybeans prices could be extreme this Fall. Upside potential for prices this year could be limited without some type of supply shock, and for now that shock would have to come from the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 960 May. Support is at 960, 954, and 947 May, and resistance is at 970, 978, and 983 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 314.00, 311.00, and 310.00 May, and resistance is at 320.00, 326.00, and 327.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3100 and 2880 May. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3090 May, with resistance at 3220, 3270, and 3320 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed lower on the weaker price action in Chicago and a stronger Canadian Dollar. Nearby weakness was caused by some general selling tied to ideas of increasing competition from South America in world oilseeds markets. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term. Palm Oil was lower on outside market price action. Demand on the export side has been lackluster, but there are still people saying that the production is not all that strong. The trade expects increased production overall, but trees have been slow to recover. The trees are recovering and should start producing more in the next couple of months, but so far the increase has been less than expected. The weather has been good, but increasing seasonal monsoon rains could soon start to disrupt harvest progress.
Overnight News: ITS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.076 million tons, from 1.008 million last month. SGS said that exports are now 1.088 million tons, from 1.018 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 479.00, 474.00, and 470.00 May, with resistance at 493.00, 497.00, and 502.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2640 June. Support is at 2640, 2600, and 2570 June, with resistance at 2700, 2740, and 2810 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation today and Sunday. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 33 May 99 May 49 May 25-May minus 4 May
March 35 July 51 May 20-Jul
April 36 July 51 July 23-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
March plus 26 May minus 35 May
Aprl plus 26 May minus 35 May
May plus 27 May minus 32 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 30
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada

Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 479.91 dn 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 499.20 dn 6.60
2 Can 486.20 dn 6.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 521.20 dn 6.60
2 Can 508.20 dn 6.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 168.00 unchanged
Can Feed 170.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 660.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 660.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 672.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,910 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 285.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4215)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 206,180 lots, or 7.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,719 3,761 3,662 3,718 3,728 3,728 0 35,998 106,868
Jul-17 3,819 3,820 3,819 3,820 3,792 3,819 27 4 58
Sep-17 3,770 3,825 3,715 3,788 3,781 3,793 12 164,772 212,770
Nov-17 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,844 3,841 -3 10 34
Jan-18 3,839 3,877 3,782 3,839 3,844 3,843 -1 4,580 22,760
Mar-18 – – – 3,912 3,913 3,912 -1 0 10
May-18 3,905 3,966 3,901 3,936 3,926 3,940 14 812 776
Jul-18 – – – 3,993 3,979 3,993 14 0 8
Sep-18 3,982 3,983 3,982 3,983 3,980 3,982 2 4 14
Corn
Turnover: 1,303,534 lots, or 21.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,607 1,620 1,600 1,616 1,608 1,613 5 228,810 634,234
Jul-17 1,625 1,632 1,620 1,630 1,626 1,625 -1 46 1,342
Sep-17 1,671 1,679 1,662 1,672 1,671 1,672 1 1,012,176 2,272,606
Nov-17 1,707 1,712 1,702 1,705 1,703 1,707 4 24 1,834
Jan-18 1,732 1,738 1,723 1,731 1,732 1,731 -1 62,220 519,892
Mar-18 1,742 1,756 1,739 1,742 1,746 1,744 -2 258 458
Soymeal
Turnover: 971,500 lots, or 27.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,771 2,789 2,762 2,780 2,780 2,778 -2 154,528 803,518
Jul-17 2,825 2,825 2,794 2,797 2,819 2,801 -18 392 1,104
Aug-17 2,818 2,840 2,800 2,800 2,830 2,811 -19 504 508
Sep-17 2,775 2,800 2,766 2,780 2,789 2,784 -5 790,108 2,212,768
Nov-17 2,817 2,819 2,812 2,815 2,813 2,816 3 34 50
Dec-17 2,833 2,842 2,824 2,827 2,890 2,833 -57 354 290
Jan-18 2,808 2,835 2,806 2,820 2,829 2,823 -6 25,568 275,166
Mar-18 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,881 2,843 -38 12 16
Palm Oil
Turnover: 390,276 lots, or 21.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-17 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 0
May-17 5,662 5,718 5,618 5,668 5,688 5,682 -6 44,702 141,274
Jun-17 – – – 5,662 5,662 5,662 0 0 12
Jul-17 – – – 5,566 5,570 5,566 -4 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,626 5,630 5,626 -4 0 6
Sep-17 5,336 5,388 5,308 5,328 5,394 5,358 -36 321,718 543,712
Oct-17 5,384 5,384 5,384 5,384 5,368 5,384 16 2 10
Nov-17 – – – 5,376 5,376 5,376 0 0 126
Dec-17 – – – 5,426 5,410 5,426 16 0 4
Jan-18 5,260 5,326 5,236 5,268 5,308 5,296 -12 23,854 92,252
Feb-18 – – – 5,396 5,408 5,396 -12 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,380 5,392 5,380 -12 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 520,460 lots, or 31.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 5,938 6,024 5,900 5,904 6,030 5,968 -62 100,200 316,256
Jul-17 – – – 6,080 6,086 6,080 -6 0 4
Aug-17 6,010 6,010 6,010 6,010 6,294 6,010 -284 4 38
Sep-17 6,100 6,144 6,024 6,034 6,154 6,084 -70 408,756 775,188
Nov-17 – – – 6,124 6,194 6,124 -70 0 8
Dec-17 – – – 6,326 6,398 6,326 -72 0 10
Jan-18 6,266 6,304 6,192 6,200 6,310 6,252 -58 11,498 83,372
Mar-18 6,302 6,302 6,302 6,302 6,346 6,302 -44 2 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

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