Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2017 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 2016 Dec. 2016
Corn 8,551 8,280-8,900 7,822 12,384
Soybeans 1,679 1,627-1,800 1,531 2,895
Wheat 1,622 1,417-1,721 1,372 2,073
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 8,650 1,660 1,625
Agrivisor 8,470 1,675 1,660
Allendale 8,651 1,734 1,721
CHS Hedging 8,280 1,650 1,625
DC Analysis 8,590 1,677 1,632
Doane 8,395 1,675 1,618
EDFMan Capital 8,370 1,700 1,560
Farm Futures 8,548 1,695 1,614
Futures INTL 8,583 1,665 1,624
Hueber Report 8,492 1,627 1,417
INTL FCStone 8,346 1,634 1,644
Linn Group 8,466 1,652 1,624
Sid Love Consulting 8,400 1,650 1,654
MaxYield 8,900 1,800 1,600
Northstar 8,715 1,640 1,620
Prime-Ag 8,600 1,650 1,650
RJ O’Brien 8,630 1,701 1,627
US Commodities 8,572 1,640 1,628
Vantage RM 8,670 1,712 1,660
Western Milling 8,519 1,716 1,619
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,721 1,713 1,636
AVERAGE 8,551 1,679 1,622
USDA Mar. 2016 7,822 1,531 1,372
USDA Dec. 2016 12,384 2,895 2,073

DJ Survey: 2017 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2016
Corn 91.034 89.7-92.5 94.004
Soybeans 88.128 85.9-90.2 83.433
All Wheat 46.059 44.2-48.2 50.154
Winter Wheat 32.388 32.0-33.0 36.137
Spring Wheat 11.270 9.9-12.2 11.605
Durum Wheat 2.145 2.0-2.5 2.412
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 92.0 88.0 45.4 32.2 11.0 2.2
Agrisource 89.7 90.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Agrivisor 90.3 88.1 45.6 32.2 11.4 2.0
Allendale 90.0 88.8 46.0 32.7 11.2 2.0
CHS Hedging 90.0 88.5 45.8 N/A N/A N/A
DC Analysis 91.2 87.5 45.7 32.4 11.3 2.0
Doane 90.9 89.3 45.9 32.4 11.5 2.0
EDFMan Capital 90.5 88.5 46.8 32.3 12.0 2.5
Farm Futures 90.3 89.0 45.8 32.4 11.3 2.2
Futures INTL 91.3 87.3 46.7 32.5 11.9 2.4
Hueber Report 90.3 88.0 45.9 32.4 11.2 2.3
INTL FCStone 91.6 87.3 44.9 32.0 9.9 2.3
Linn Group 91.5 88.2 46.5 32.3 12.2 2.0
Sid Love Consultin 91.0 88.0 45.8 32.4 11.4 2.0
MaxYield 91.5 85.9 48.2 N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 90.8 89.2 44.2 32.0 10.2 2.0
Prime-Ag 92.5 87.5 47.0 N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 91.0 89.0 45.6 32.5 11.0 2.1
US Commodities 92.1 89.1 45.7 N/A N/A N/A
Vantage RM 91.0 87.0 46.5 33.0 11.3 2.2
Western Milling 91.0 88.0 46.2 32.6 11.5 2.1
Zaner Ag Hedge 92.2 86.4 47.1 N/A N/A N/A
AVERAGE 91.034 88.128 46.059 32.388 11.270 2.145
USDA 2016 94.004 83.433 50.154 36.137 11.605 2.412

Price Group Estimates of Major U.S. Planting Levels*
USDA Ag Forum Price Change
15/16 16/17 17/18 E- 17/18 vs. 2015/16

Corn 88.00 94.00 90.00 90.28 -3.724
Beans 82.65 83.43 88.00 88.30 4.867
Sprg Wht 13.37 11.61 11.52 11.35 -0.255
Durum 1.95 2.41 2.10 2.08 -0.337
Winter 39.68 36.14 32.38 32.33 -3.807
All Wheat 55.00 50.15 46.00 45.76 -4.394
Oats# 3.09 2.83 2.75 2.92 0.092
Barley# 3.62 3.05 2.85 2.90 -0.152
Sorghum# 8.46 6.69 6.10 6.30 -0.390
All Cotton 8.58 10.07 11.50 11.45 1.376
Rice 2.63 3.15 2.60 2.65 -0.500
Total 252.02 253.39 249.80 250.56 -2.83
* millions of acres #AG F 11.7 mln aggrete for these crops

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Mar 30
For the week ended Mar 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 464.1 163.5 26249.1 19255.2 5968.9 1226.5
hrw 253.7 41.2 10785.4 5437.3 2089.2 286.3
srw 37.1 16.9 2355.5 3050.2 523.6 129.1
hrs 102.8 63.1 8147.7 6391.1 1948.5 429.0
white 70.5 42.3 4515.9 3709.5 1331.6 374.6
durum 0.0 0.0 444.5 667.0 76.0 7.5
corn 716.9 125.0 47423.7 31643.2 16893.4 2148.3
soybeans 681.0 315.6 54669.9 43908.2 8026.3 2148.6
soymeal 162.6 -1.0 8441.8 8269.1 2906.2 286.9
soyoil 12.5 0.0 749.7 724.9 146.0 1.7
upland cotton 392.3 84.3 12305.1 7201.8 4431.0 1705.1
pima cotton 10.1 0.9 548.2 392.1 157.0 6.0
sorghum 16.7 0.0 3834.6 6502.6 1006.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 24.3 27.2 8.9 27.8
rice 109.1 1.0 2806.1 2615.8 604.1 13.3

DJ IGC Raises 2016-17 Global Grain Output Forecast, Predicts Fall Next Year
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Grains Council Thursday said it still expects global grain production to top 2.1 billion metric tons, as it raised its 2016-17 production forecast.
The IGC also released its first full set of projections for 2017-18, saying it expects a 56 million ton drop in production for next year. When accounting for carryover stocks, consumption, and trade, that adjusts to a 29 million ton inventory drop on-the-year.
The IGC increased its monthly output forecast for 2016-17 to 2,106 million tons from 2,102 million tons, a 5% increase year-on-year and the largest production figure on record.
Forecasts of huge harvests across several grain-producing regions has seen the IGC raise its production forecast in 10 of its last 11 reports.
Of the 34 million ton production increase on the last forecast, the IGC expects wheat and maize to account for 16 million tons and 15 million tons, respectively.
The IGC upgraded its corn production forecast to 1,053 billion tons from 1,049 million tons and its soybean forecast by 5 million tons to 341 million tons. It raised its wheat production forecast by 2 million tons to 754 million tons, also increasing its rice forecast by 1 million to 483 million tons.
Strong soy bean production in the southern hemisphere is one of the drivers behind the IGC’s production forecast hike.
The council said the upward revision in expected production slightly outstrips a hike in its consumption forecast. As a result, its forecast for year-end global grain inventories was raised by 5 million tons to 513 million tons.
The body said it expects falls for wheat, maize, and sorghum to drive the 2017-18 downtick.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mostly a little higher on what was called a light volume short covering rally. Ideas are that the rains forecast for the Great Plains will improve crops, but are already factored into prices. Meanwhile, USDA will show reduced Winter Wheat area again, and some fear that Spring Wheat area will be less as well. The rains could help stabilize crop ratings in states from Kansas and Colorado to Oklahoma and Texas. Crop reports from the state departments of agriculture showed deterioration last week. The Midwest should see chances for rain every few days through next week and crop conditions should be good. World Wheat prices were stable, and US Wheat remains as cheap as any in the world market right now. Daily price trends are down in both Chicago markets, but Minneapolis is still in a range trade. The charts suggest that futures could bear near some downside objectives at this time. The weather patterns appear to be changing in a way that will allow for better rain chances in the driest areas. The southern and eastern Midwest saw some improvement when a cold front brought some beneficial precipitation to growing areas last week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some heavy precipitation today and over the weekend.. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation every few days. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 419, 416, and 410 May, with resistance at 427, 429, and 433 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 411 May. Support is at 419, 417, and 412 May, with resistance at 429, 436, and 439 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 537, 532, and 528 May, and resistance is at 545, 547, and 552 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher. It was another quiet session, but there was not a lot of selling interest seen. The chart patterns show that prices remain in a longer term trading range, and it looks like no one will do too much before the USDA reports on Friday. Traders still think that a bottom is forming and that the speculators are caught with big short positions. The planting intentions report is expected to show reduced planted área in line with recent USDA Outlook Conference estimates. Planting continues in areas near the Gulf Coast amid very good conditions, and reports from Texas say that planting there is very active. Yesterday was quiet due to rains. It is possible that planted area not drop that much in both Louisiana and Texas due to the better conditions right now. Mississippi and Arkansas might not get started until next month, but fieldwork preparations have been active as weather permits. Big reductions in planted area are possible in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for showers and rains today and tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures should trend to near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 970, 964, and 959 May, with resistance at 990, 995, and 1000 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures were higher in consolidation trading. It was another slow session, but there is little selling interest at current prices. It appears that producers are waiting for a rally before selling again, and speculators have not shown much interest in ding anything before the reports. Most of the trade is waiting for the USDA reports on Friday before deciding what to do next. Export demand overall remains very strong and should remains strong for several more months as South America is not currently in a position to offer. Better market conditions for the region to offer should appear by late Summer when the Winter crop in Brazil is made and ready for harvest. The energy reports yesterday showed good ethanol consumption once again. Ethanol demand has also been good, but the move by Brazil to start offering sugar based Ethanol into the world market could undercut some US demand. The market is looking ahead to the quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports on Friday. The quarterly stocks report is expected to show big supplies from the big production of last year. Traders are also looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 354, 351, and 349 May, and resistance is at 360, 363, and 365 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 219 May. Support is at 227, 225, and 222 May, and resistance is at 236, 237, and 239 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mostly a little lower on reports of weaker basis levels in South America. The weaker cash premiums suggest that Soybeans are now more available and that the competition for world sales will be more intense. The weaker premiums quoted from Brazil and Argentina put prices from those origins below the US. There are also reports of less Chinese demand.. Most appear to be waiting for the USDA reports on Friday. The weekly charts show down trends in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. South American offers are out there and Brazil exporters are selling and fixing prices. Argentine exports are also reported to be offering actively. Production expectations are high for both countries and seem to be getting higher. Many analysts suggest that the down side potential for Soybeans prices could be extreme this Fall. Upside potential for prices this year could be limited without some type of supply shock, and for now that shock would have to come from the US.
Overnight News: China bought 165,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 960 May. Support is at 967, 960, and 954 May, and resistance is at 978, 983, and 992 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 315.00 May. Support is at 314.00, 311.00, and 310.00 May, and resistance is at 320.00, 326.00, and 327.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3170, and 3130 May, with resistance at 3270, 3320, and 3390 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed lower. A stronger Canadian Dollar caused some speculative selling interest. Nearby weakness was caused by some producer selling in Canada and on some general selling tied to ideas of increasing competition from South America in world oilseeds markets. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term. Palm Oil was lower on outside market price action. Demand on the export side has been lackluster, but there are still people saing that the production is not a l that strong. The trade expects increased production overall, but trees have been slow to recover. The trees are recovering and should start producing more in the next couple of months, but so far the increase has been less than expected. The weather has been good, but increasing seasonal monsoon rains could soon start to disrupt harvest progress.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 502.00 and 514.00 May. Support is at 490.00, 485.00, and 479.00 May, with resistance at 502.00, 507.00, and 512.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2640 June. Support is at 2690, 2640, and 2600 June, with resistance at 2740, 2810, and 2840 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation late in the week and early next week. Temperatures will average near normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 33 May 102 May 48 May 26-May minus 4 May
March 35 July 51 May 21-Jul
April 37 July 51 July 26-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
March plus 30 May minus 35 May
Aprl plus 30 May minus 35 May
May plus 28 May minus 32 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 29
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 481.81 up 10.81
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 505.80 dn 1.90
2 Can 492.80 dn 1.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 527.80 dn 1.90
2 Can 514.80 dn 1.90
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 170.00 unchanged
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 700.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 677.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 615.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 602.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Apr 700.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 677.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 615.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 602.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 672.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,900 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 292.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.4200)

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Security Question * * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.