Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 27
Source: USDA
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 23, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/23/2017 03/16/2017 03/24/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 49 48 171 31,456 30,436
CORN 1,556,091 1,357,989 989,062 31,843,059 18,556,820
FLAXSEED 1,352 1,071 24 24,852 4,642
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 499 12,993 2,747
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 165,844 59,977 300,029 3,604,267 5,941,700
SOYBEANS 555,012 744,061 567,846 46,312,774 41,562,033
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 8
WHEAT 541,799 649,083 351,785 21,255,319 16,486,794
Total 2,820,147 2,812,229 2,209,416 103,084,720 82,585,180
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower, with the HRW contracts leading the way. HRW moved lower on forecasts for improved precipitation chances over the next week or two in the central and southern Great Plains. The rains last week seem to have missed the driest areas of the western Great Plains, but eastern sections got beneficial precipitation. All areas could see some rain this week. The weather patterns appear to be changing in a way that will allow for better rain chances in the driest areas. These rains are very much needed as the state crop reports for the Great Plains showed crop deterioration last night. The southern and eastern Midwest saw some improvement when a cold front brought some beneficial precipitation to growing areas last week. The Midwest should see changes for rain every few days this week. World Wheat prices were weaker last week, but US Wheat remains as cheap as any in the world market right now. Daily price trends are down in both Chicago markets, but Minneapolis is still in a range trade. The charts suggest that futures could bear near some downside objectives at this time. The weather patterns appear to be changing in a way that will allow for better rain chances in the driest areas. The southern and eastern Midwest saw some improvement when a cold front brought some beneficial precipitation to growing areas last week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light precipitation every few days.. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get some precipitation every few days. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. India has imposed a 10% import tax on Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 419, and 405 May. Support is at 419, 416, and 410 May, with resistance at 427, 429, and 433 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 411 May. Support is at 419, 417, and 412 May, with resistance at 429, 436, and 439 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 525, 514, and 498 May. Support is at 528, 526, and 512 May, and resistance is at 537, 542, and 545 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher again yesterday. The chart patterns show that prices remain in a longer term trading range. Traders still think that a bottom is forming. The planting intentions report to come at the end of the week and is expected to show reduced planted area in line with recent USDA Outlook Conference estimates. Planting continues in areas near the Gulf Coast amid very good conditions, and reports from Texas say that planting there is very active. Rice is at least 40% planted in southern Louisiana. There is a lot of Rice around, but smaller planted area could mean less overall production and reduced stocks levels next year. Southern Louisiana producers say that the usual area will be planted as many producers do not really have any good alternatives crops for the area. Mississippi and Arkansas might not get started until next month, but fieldwork preparations have been active as weather permits. Big reductions in planted area are possible in both states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for showers and rains this week. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1000 and 1026 May. Support is at 972, 964, and 959 May, with resistance at 990, 995, and 1000 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Futures were a little lower on ideas that competition could soon be seen from South America. The market held very well considering the weakness in Wheat and Soybeans. Export demand overall remains very strong and is a bright spot in the Corn market fundamentals as the e3xport inspections were strong again yesterday. The export demand should remains strong for several more months as South America is not currently in a position to offer. Better market conditions for the region to offer should appear by late Summer when the Winter crop in Brazil is made and ready for harvest. The market is looking ahead to the quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports on Friday. The quarterly stocks report is expected to show big supplies from the big production of last year. Traders are also looking at good planting and initial development conditions in northern Brazil and anticipate a huge crop and big competition for sales. The crop is being planted or is in initial development now, so it will still be three months before the harvest gets going. Growing conditions are good. More competition for world Ethanol business could come from Brazil as the Sugarcane crop is about to be harvested and as prices internally have dropped.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 347 May. Support is at 354, 351, and 349 May, and resistance is at 360, 363, and 365 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 235 and 219 May. Support is at 239, 237, and 235 May, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 250 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower yesterday on ideas that South America is taking all of the export business now. The weekly charts show down trends in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Speculators are selling the market base don the chart patterns and in anticipation of increased offers from South America. The offers are out there and Brazil exporters are selling and fixing prices. US prices are still competitive in the world market and the US is still getting a good share of the business, but demand for US Soybeans is expected to fade in the very near future as Brazil starts to ramp up its export program. Argentina is at harvest and will also compete for business. Export prices from Argentina are actually somewhat cheaper than those from Brazil of the US. Production expectations are high for both countries and seem to be getting higher. Many analysts suggest that the down side potential for Soybeans prices could be extreme this Fall. Upside potential for prices this year could be limited without some type of supply shock, and for now that shock would have to come from the US. Right now the US is expected to plant more Soybeans than last year. Planted area could be at least 4.0 million acres higher. Big stocks are also expected. The prospective plantings and quarterly stocks reports will be released on Friday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 960 May. Support is at 967, 960, and 954 May, and resistance is at 983, 992, and 998 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 316.00 and 315.00 May. Support is at 314.00, 311.00, and 310.00 May, and resistance is at 320.00, 326.00, and 327.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3170, 3130, and 390 May, with resistance at 3270, 3320, and 3390 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola closed higher despite weakness in Chicago and in part due to a weaker Canadian Dollar Funds and other speculators were big buyers on ideas that the selling last week was too much. Nearby weakness was caused by some producer selling in Canada and on some general selling tied to ideas of increasing competition from South America in world oilseeds markets. The market is paying attention to competing vegetable oils prices as there is little to talk about in the internal market. Availability of South America Soybeans and products is increasing and that could hurt Canola prices longer term. Palm Oil was higher on outside market price action and a weaker Ringgit. Demand on the export side has been lackluster. The trade expects increased production overall, but trees have been slow to recover. The trees are recovering and should start producing more in the next couple of months, but so far the increase has been less than expected
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 479.00, 474.00, and 470.00 May, with resistance at 492.00, 502.00, and 507.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2640 June. Support is at 2640, 2600, and 2570 June, with resistance at 2740, 2810, and 2840 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation later in the week. Temperatures will average near normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 33 May 104 May 49 May 26-May minus 4 May
March 34 July 50 May 20-Jul
April 36 July 51 July 26-Jul
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
March plus 38 May minus 34 May
Aprl plus 38 May minus 34 May
May plus 37 May minus 34 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 27
WINNIPEG, March 27 (CNS Canada) – The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 463.37 dn 5.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 500.70 up 6.20
2 Can 487.70 up 6.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 522.70 up 6.20
2 Can 509.70 up 6.20
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 170.00 up 2.00
Can Feed 168.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 160.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 208,044 lots, or 7.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 3,729 3,777 3,708 3,750 3,758 3,745 -13 104,796 123,068
Jul-17 3,791 3,791 3,791 3,791 3,855 3,791 -64 2 60
Sep-17 3,782 3,810 3,762 3,789 3,808 3,790 -18 95,602 188,024
Nov-17 – – – 3,841 3,841 3,841 0 0 12
Jan-18 3,859 3,884 3,840 3,857 3,866 3,858 -8 6,796 24,564
Mar-18 – – – 3,933 3,941 3,933 -8 0 10
May-18 3,943 3,970 3,923 3,937 3,950 3,947 -3 848 774
Jul-18 – – – 4,000 4,003 4,000 -3 0 8
Sep-18 – – – 4,006 4,006 4,006 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 1,961,946 lots, or 33.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 1,639 1,646 1,627 1,643 1,634 1,636 2 380,170 825,124
Jul-17 1,650 1,665 1,647 1,665 1,656 1,658 2 168 1,526
Sep-17 1,706 1,721 1,697 1,716 1,705 1,708 3 1,490,256 2,498,614
Nov-17 1,718 1,733 1,716 1,725 1,724 1,729 5 286 1,948
Jan-18 1,757 1,769 1,748 1,760 1,760 1,760 0 90,998 480,334
Mar-18 1,774 1,782 1,768 1,776 1,775 1,777 2 68 308
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,319,736 lots, or 36.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 2,795 2,806 2,785 2,792 2,793 2,795 2 238,886 984,900
Jul-17 2,819 2,819 2,819 2,819 2,831 2,819 -12 8 902
Aug-17 2,854 2,855 2,841 2,841 2,851 2,852 1 14 250
Sep-17 2,805 2,813 2,793 2,801 2,801 2,804 3 1,060,160 2,186,788
Nov-17 – – – 2,835 2,835 2,835 0 0 36
Dec-17 – – – 2,890 2,890 2,890 0 0 14
Jan-18 2,840 2,850 2,833 2,836 2,843 2,841 -2 20,668 260,520
Mar-18 – – – 2,888 2,888 2,888 0 0 6
Palm Oil
Turnover: 490,920 lots, or 26.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-17 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 0
May-17 5,704 5,752 5,672 5,720 5,760 5,714 -46 68,652 161,350
Jun-17 5,698 5,700 5,600 5,700 5,794 5,640 -154 16 12
Jul-17 – – – 5,502 5,652 5,502 -150 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 5,562 5,562 5,562 0 0 6
Sep-17 5,404 5,438 5,362 5,416 5,446 5,402 -44 399,324 535,240
Oct-17 – – – 5,562 5,562 5,562 0 0 10
Nov-17 5,340 5,340 5,340 5,340 5,482 5,340 -142 10 114
Dec-17 – – – 5,426 5,426 5,426 0 0 4
Jan-18 5,330 5,360 5,288 5,310 5,362 5,326 -36 22,918 90,788
Feb-18 – – – 5,442 5,478 5,442 -36 0 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,410 5,410 5,410 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 636,820 lots, or 39.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-17 6,048 6,100 6,020 6,056 6,126 6,060 -66 143,032 356,560
Jul-17 – – – 6,212 6,220 6,212 -8 0 4
Aug-17 – – – 6,324 6,324 6,324 0 0 36
Sep-17 6,200 6,240 6,158 6,200 6,266 6,202 -64 482,584 709,384
Nov-17 6,128 6,336 6,128 6,196 6,414 6,220 -194 6 8
Dec-17 6,398 6,398 6,398 6,398 6,550 6,398 -152 2 10
Jan-18 6,366 6,396 6,320 6,358 6,416 6,364 -52 11,190 77,410
Mar-18 6,412 6,412 6,300 6,300 6,458 6,346 -112 6 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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