Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

MAY SOYBEANS

The month of Mar for the May Bean contract has been dominated by bearish supply concerns- primarily the record Brazilian harvest currently underway! And on top of that is a US Bean crop predicted to be 4-5 million more acres than 2016! The net result is a mkt down 35 for the month – but only 8 cents for the week as it tries to stabilize!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 656,288 (500-700) – Thur sales Were 695,000 (400-600)

Mon (3-13) –   120,000 MT – Unk

Thur (3-16) –   120,000 MT –   Unk

  • MAR 9 USDA – bears repeating as it has cast a bearish pall Over the mkts ever since its issuance

US Stocks   –       435 (414)

Global Stocks     82.8 (81.3)

Brazil                   108 (104)

Arg                       55.5 (55.1)

  • BRAZILIAN HARVEST-has been estimated as high as 111 MT& is 75% in – They say big crops get bigger – but they also say “harv lows”kick in When harvest is roughly one-half over!
  • US DOLLAR – lost almost 100 points on the heels of Janet Reno’s remarks Last Wed after she announced a ¼ % IR increase. Her dovish remarks About maybe only two more IR increases instead of 3 – ignited a Sharp sell-off in the US Dollar
  • US ACREAGE- is widely rumored to be 4-5 million more acres than Last year – this has added to the bearishness created by the Brazilian & Argentine crops
  • EXPORTS –have trailed off but are still adequate – for instance, Last week, we had two 8am announcements
  • TECHNICALS-the mkt has descended to the low end of the 2017 range (1000-1085) – the psychologically important $10 level is trying To hold the mkt

The mkt is feeling the upcoming bearish supplies – but there is no weather premium in its price –just in case?

MAY CORN

After plummeting 25 cents since late Feb, May Corn was able to stabilize last week – gaining 3 ½ cents. Whereas the Bean Complex is fighting bearish supplies in both hemispheres, Corn is looking at US acreage 4-5 million acres under 2016 & is sitting on 7-8 year lows. So when the grain complex breaks down, May Corn seems to hold up better than Beans & wheat!

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,547,022 MMT (LW-1,450,003) Thur sales were 1.47 MMT (650 – 1.1)

Tues – 120,000 MT to Mexico

  • USDA MAR 9- #’s weren’t as negative as Beans as US Stocks came in Right on expectations- however other #’s were higher than pre-report Guesses

US Stocks –       2,320 (2,320)

Global Stocks   220.7 (218.6)

Brazil                 91.5   (86.5)

Arg                     37.5   (36.6)

  • US DOLLAR – ever since the Fed announced a ¼ % rate increase last week The US $ has tumbled as Janet Yellen implied there wouldn’t be as Many rate increases as previously thought
  • WEATHER PREMIUM – as of today, May Corn has given up all its 2017 gains- with planting dead ahead, the mkt needs to allow for weather Issues – particularly after the mildest winter in recent memory

There’s plenty of corn to go around but that’s why the mkt is on 7-8 year lows! Should the irregular warm & dry weather patter continue into the growing season, then corn is too cheap – particularly with robust exports & a declining dollar!

MAY WHEAT

After dropping over 30 cents since early Mar, the Mar Wht contract was able to stabilize last week – finishing the wk with a minor loss!

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  • THE WW BELT –got a drier forecast
  • COLD TEMPS – returning to the plains renewed concerns of winterkill
  • EGYPT- is buying at the fastest pace since the 2011-15
  • RECORD WORLD STOCKS – continue to overhang the mkt

10 year lows, a shrinking dollar & weather-related rallies in C & B could rally wht sharply!

APL CATTLE

The mkt is giving off conflicting signals but continues to consolidate near the 2017 highs

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  • 2ND TO 1ST QTR INCREASE – in beef production has the mkt wary
  • SURGING CASH MKT – reveals added demand – even after a $12 Rally since early Dec
  • JUNE CAT’S WHOPPING DISCOUNT – to cash of almost $20 – means

The big 2nd Qtr increase in production is pretty well dialed in Apr Cat continues to defy analysts predictions of a top forming – by punching out new monthly highs!

APL HOGS

Apl Hogs posted a $1.00 gain amidst its $6.00 2017 range (66.50-72.50) as offsetting factors kept the mkt range bound

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  • CHINA – could be a more active buyer as bird flu concerns could shift Demand from poultry to pork
  • 2ND QTR PRODUCTION – is expected to be up 6% from last year
  • RECENT CASH – has been strong – reflecting good demand For pork & bacon

Generally, solid demand is supporting both cat & hogs – even after substantial rallies since last Fall.

 

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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