Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

MAR SOYBEANS

Mar Beans succumbed to bearish supply pressure from both hemispheres – as Brazil continues on a record pace & the USDA  AG OUTLOOK confirmed 4.6 MA more of US beans could be planted in 2017.  The result was new lows for the month of Feb & 18 cents lower on the week!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS- Tues Inspections were 1.076,000 MMT (1.1-1.3) – Fri sales Were 442,000 MT (550-850)
  • USDA AG FORUM – issued their annual crop & carry-out estimates – There were no surprises but the numbers reminded the trade of another Big crop – potentially
  1. a)  8 million acres pltd     (8.34  – 2016)
  2. b) Production – 4.190 BB  (4.307 – 2016)
  3. c) Yield –              0 B/A   (52.1) –  2016)
  4. d) Ending Stocks – 420BB (420-2016)

3)  SOUTH AMERICA – Brazil’s record crop estimates are up to 107 MMT &

Argentina flood-plagued crop is slowly recovering

4) IS DEMAND ENOUGH – for several months, export demand has been

Robust –but lately can’t keep up with record crop estimates

5)  VERY MILD WINTER – 70’s & no snow so far in Feb – have traders &

Producers wondering about this summer

Mar Beans have traded 70 cents down off the 2017 supplies that aren’t  in the bin or not even planted yet!  The mkt seems t be getting ahead of itself!

MAR CORN

Despite positive #’s from the USDA  AG FORUM & impressive exports all week, Mar Corn fell victim to benevolent South American weather & spillover pressure from Mar Beans & Wheat – as it registered a weekly 3 ½ cent weekly loss!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Tues Inspections were 1,152,000 MMT (1.1 – 1.3) & Fri Sales Were  1,000,700 MMT (800-1.1)

Tues – 269,000 MT – Japan

111,200 MT – Unk

  • USDA AG FORUM – looking closely at the numbers projected by the USDA on Thur & Fri, it’s hard to believe Mar Corn closed lower last week
  1. a) ACREAGE TO BE PLANTED – 90ma (94-LY)
  2.       b)  PRODUCTION – 14.065bb (15,148 – LY)
  3. c) Yield – 170.7 b/a (174.6 – LT)
  4. d) Ending stocks – 2,215 bb (2,320 – bb)
  • SOUTH AMERICA – the bearishness from S/A has been centering Around the record Brazilian Bean Crop – now one-quarter harvested – But the spillover is negatively impacting corn – Arg & Brazil corn are up From last year

Mar Corn is 16 cents off its recent highs but 42 cents off its Dec lows. much lower acreage this Spring & its current 7-8 year lows price level makes Mar Corn the  strongest member of the grain complex!

MAR WHT

Much like Mar Corn, Mar Wht closed lower last week – despite friendly projections from the USDA’s AG FORUM!  However, the mkt could well have been still reeling from a key reversal – a week ago Friday – when the wht – after making new highs at 465, closed lower.

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Tues Inspections were 558,252 (350-550) – Fri sales Were 707,000 (350-550)

Tues – 148,000 MT – Unk

  • USDA AG FORUM – by now the 100 year low WW acreage has been Well-documented but its still very noteworthy

Planted Area –       46 MA (50-LY)

Production    –        1.837 BB (2.310 – LY)

Yield                –        47.1 B/a (52.6 – LY)

Ending stocks         905 MB   (1,139- LY)

  • WORLD CARRY-OUT –is still coming in at a record level
  • HISTORICALLY CHEAP – 10 year low price levels have helped Make our wht more competitive on the world mkt
  • EGYPT – is in the mkt most every week to make wht purchases Though not from the US – still it’s a good sign!

Mar Wht had run up 70 cents since late Dec (395-465) & with last week’s down, has corrected roughly 40%.  A resumption of the up from here will require some help from Corn & Beans!

APR CATTLE

After running up $18 (102-120) since early Nov, Apl Cat has consolidated in a $5 range (112 – 117)

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  • JUNE CAT – is at a hefty discount to cash
  • 1st QTR PRODUCTION – is expected to be down a record 643 MP

From the 4th Qtr

  • CASH- has surged in the past week
  • WEIGHT DATA – suggests producers are extremely current
  • THE FEB COF – projected a 11% increase in placements &

That’s exactly how the report came out Impressively, Apl Cat is holding as demand appears as good as it was $13 ago

APR HOGS

Apl Hogs corrected an extreme over-bought condition by breaking $5 in 3 days (71-66) – closing down for the $2.50

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  • JAN 31 COLD STORAGE – was up 10% over last year – Much less than the normal increase
  • BELLY PRICES – collapsed last week
  • THE DEC EXPORT PACE – will be hard to maintain
  • IF MEXICO DROPS, we’ll need more business from China

Much like cattle, hog demand is holding up remarkably well despite last Fall’s rally!

 

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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