Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

MAR SOYBEANS

The Jan Crop Report ignited Mar Beans near vertical 80 cent move (1000-1080) & it was extended by too much rain in Argentina!  Some recent dryness there has forced a 25% correction – but this is considered reasonably tame!  Also, underpinning the  rally  have been solid exports & a weakening dollar!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,290,777 MMT (LW – 1,420, 068) – Fri  Sales were 979,000 MT (400-600)
  • JAN 12 USDA REPORT – final 2016 production was 4.307 BB & 52.1 B/A – These are both records but have been well-chronicled since harvest Was over
  • SOUTH AMERICAN WOES – it’s been way too wet in Argentina & some Analysts are reducing their crop estimates by 3-5 MMT
  • US DOLLAR AT A TOP? – This mkt hasn’t made new highs since Mid-Dec & the chart formations look toppy! It wouldn’t be surprising if the Mkt – after reaching 14 year highs – has topped out! Recent exports Have been impressive – imagine what they’d be with a much lower Dollar
  • THE TRUMP WILDCARD – the first “businessman President” in recent Memory promises to right the ship economically & we believe It will happen – & the spillover will be beneficial to all mkts – including The AGs!

Despite the recent 80 cent run-up, the Bean mkt is still simply too cheap to withstand any weather issues from either hemisphere!

MAR CORN

After dawdling in a 3-month range (344-368), Mar Corn has finally come alive – punching out new 6-month highs last Friday.  With the Bean/Corn ratio already at a 20 year high, Mar Corn decided to start “keeping up” with Mar Beans!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 963,897 MT (LW-902,528) – Fri Sales were 1,367,000 (900-1.2)

Tues – 102,944 MT to Unk

Thur –   110,400 MT to Unk

  • JAN 12 USDA REPORT – final 2016 production was 15,148 BB & 174.6 B/A However, these #’s weren’t exactly a revelation to the mkt place – Which has traded a 15 BB plus crop for 2-3 months now
  • SOUTH AMERICA – it’s either too dry or too wet & Mar Corn is “feeling it”!  Again, much like Mar Beans, the contract is way too Cheap to absorb ANY weather issues in either S/A or the US!
  • THE ALMIGHTY DOLLAR – it’s very significant how robust exports Have been recently – given that the US $ is at a 14 year high – Imagine what they could be with even a 35% correction in its value?
  • LESS ACRES – whether its 2 or 4 million less acres, the reduction Will be very supportive to corn in 2017
  • 8 YEAR LOWS – a mkt at the same level as it was in 2009 – is very sensitive to any bullish news

Any one of several factors – lower acreage, good exports, a lower US Dollar & weather issues – either South or North – can rally this mkt! If it’s more than one, then look out!

MAR WHEAT

Mar Wht consolidated its gains from a late Dec  40 cent rally (392 -437) as it fed off the lowest winter acreage  since 1909  & a declining dollar  while still confronting record high carry-out!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS- Mon Inspections were 226,205 MT (LW – 385,495) – Fri Sales Were 245,000 MT (250-750) –
  • WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE – the USDA reported 32,383 MA- the lowest In over 100 years but this # has been well factored in
  • HUGE NET SHORT POSITION – at 92,733 contracts- which is the largest Short position for any AG mkt – that’s a massive “buying pool” Should any bullish news come along
  • HUGE RUSSIAN CROP – is coming & will weigh on the world mkt
  • EGYPT – bought 235,000 MT of wht over the W/E – three cargoes From Russia & one from Romania – a good sign for the world mkt
  • US DOLLAR – a big drop in the US Dollar from14 year highs – Could do more for the price of wht – than anything else!
  • 10 YEAR LOW – historically low wht prices will eventually turn the mkt!

The old commodity axiom “LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES” will come home to roost for the 2017 wht contracts!

FEB CATTLE

The impressive $21 run-up (98-118) in Feb Cat since Mid-Oct has become overbought but this condition has been alleviated by consolidation & not reversal type action!

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  • Post Holiday Demand has been much stronger than anticipated
  • The surge in open interest has accompanied the rally – a very positive sign
  • Despite the steep run-up, April Cat is still discount to cash

DEMAND trumps all right now!

FEB HOG

After an $18 rally (48-66) from Mid-Oct to Mid-Dec, Feb Hogs have fallen into a sideways pattern – where normal season strength has been offset by an expected big supply ahead!

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  • The production decline from the 1st to 2nd Qtr – at 90 MP – is said to be The smallest in 15 years
  • A sweeping technical reversal a few days back did not follow thru down
  • Being winter, storms could spring up at any time – underpinning the mkt

A rallying cattle mkt may keep Feb Hogs in a consolidation mode!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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