About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 42,932 lots, or 1.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 4,431 4,439 4,421 4,428 4,433 4,433 0 134 2,520
Mar-14 – - – 4,490 4,490 4,490 0 0 36
May-14 4,501 4,506 4,468 4,486 4,506 4,486 -20 27,342 75,288
Jul-14 4,456 4,456 4,454 4,454 4,462 4,455 -7 4 124
Sep-14 4,400 4,411 4,376 4,389 4,403 4,387 -16 14,732 57,160
Nov-14 4,349 4,431 4,349 4,405 4,404 4,397 -7 8 128
Jan-15 4,381 4,387 4,364 4,373 4,385 4,374 -11 700 9,662
Mar-15 4,374 4,400 4,374 4,400 4,389 4,387 -2 4 70
May-15 4,389 4,389 4,385 4,385 4,393 4,386 -7 8 434
Soybean No. 2
Turnover: 34 lots, or 1.40 million yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 4,338 4,338 4,330 4,330 4,172 4,337 165 18 42
Mar-14 – - – 4,161 4,161 4,161 0 0 34
May-14 – - – 4,050 4,046 4,050 4 0 4
Jul-14 3,862 3,900 3,862 3,900 3,904 3,886 -18 16 78
Sep-14 – - – 3,999 3,999 3,999 0 0 16
Nov-14 – - – 4,060 4,039 4,060 21 0 4
Corn
Turnover: 65,642 lots, or 1.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 2,167 2,167 2,141 2,142 2,168 2,155 -13 726 8,984
Mar-14 2,232 2,232 2,207 2,211 2,259 2,216 -43 84 248
May-14 2,339 2,340 2,328 2,331 2,340 2,334 -6 50,298 308,642
Jul-14 2,337 2,337 2,326 2,326 2,341 2,333 -8 6 6
Sep-14 2,358 2,362 2,351 2,356 2,361 2,357 -4 14,526 116,078
Nov-14 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,351 2,350 -1 2 28
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,448,404 lots, or 48.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 3,750 3,760 3,710 3,729 3,764 3,734 -30 62,306 111,594
Mar-14 3,622 3,622 3,595 3,603 3,634 3,606 -28 756 2,128
May-14 3,358 3,358 3,318 3,331 3,373 3,336 -37 1,045,088 1,576,354
Jul-14 3,255 3,255 3,225 3,236 3,263 3,238 -25 432 10,666
Aug-14 3,262 3,262 3,236 3,241 3,272 3,249 -23 162 2,752
Sep-14 3,200 3,208 3,172 3,183 3,216 3,189 -27 334,462 1,119,652
Nov-14 3,180 3,180 3,136 3,145 3,185 3,155 -30 3,998 8,368
Dec-14 3,175 3,175 3,132 3,139 3,180 3,149 -31 1,200 2,138
Palm Oil
Turnover: 775,014 lots, or 46.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 5,798 5,798 5,750 5,754 5,774 5,766 -8 4,334 28,204
Feb-14 – - – 5,998 6,000 5,998 -2 0 8
Mar-14 6,010 6,010 5,982 5,982 5,906 5,996 90 4 8
Apr-14 – - – 6,004 6,004 6,004 0 0 12
May-14 6,046 6,056 6,000 6,010 6,034 6,024 -10 663,666 471,746
Jun-14 6,048 6,072 6,048 6,072 6,060 6,064 4 6 4
Jul-14 – - – 6,128 6,160 6,128 -32 0 0
Aug-14 – - – 6,130 6,130 6,130 0 0 6
Sep-14 6,124 6,134 6,084 6,100 6,122 6,106 -16 106,994 97,598
Oct-14 6,166 6,166 6,166 6,166 6,108 6,166 58 2 20
Nov-14 – - – 6,156 6,156 6,156 0 0 0
Dec-14 6,150 6,150 6,090 6,090 6,176 6,128 -48 8 2
Soybean oil
Turnover: 627,986 lots, or 43.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 6,958 6,978 6,908 6,940 6,976 6,936 -40 3,206 17,884
Mar-14 6,988 6,992 6,934 6,946 7,020 6,966 -54 18 82
May-14 6,962 6,976 6,914 6,940 6,974 6,946 -28 574,462 834,868
Jul-14 – - – 6,980 7,008 6,980 -28 0 30
Aug-14 – - – 6,990 6,990 6,990 0 0 34
Sep-14 7,004 7,014 6,960 6,984 7,014 6,988 -26 50,298 267,982
Nov-14 7,036 7,036 7,036 7,036 7,074 7,036 -38 2 28
Dec-14 – - – 6,998 6,998 6,998 0 0 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Dec 23
Source: USDA
For the week ending Dec 19, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Dec 19 Dec 12 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 529.7 479.8 415.0 19,486.6 13,815.3
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Oats 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 6.8
Barley 0.0 0.0 0.2 77.9 121.4
Flaxseed 1.1 0.7 0.0 6.3 11.7
Corn 911.6 638.5 352.4 10,733.2 6,293.3
Sorghum 4.0 13.1 61.5 934.0 813.0
Soybeans 1,503.7 1,703.6 1,235.5 22,350.5 20,249.0
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 2,950.3 2,835.8 2,064.5 53,590.3 41,310.6
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

DJ Analyst Estimates for the USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal, are in percentages of the year-earlier figures. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly hogs and pigs report is scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) on Friday.
High and low estimates were included in the ranges but not used in calculating the averages of the first three categories.
Average Range
All hogs and pigs on Dec 1 99.9 98.6-101.0
Kept for breeding 101.0 100.2-101.9
Kept for marketing 99.8 98.4-101.1
Sep-Nov pig crop 101.2 99.1-102.7
Sep-Nov pigs per litter 100.8 98.7-102.4
Sep-Nov farrowings 100.4 100.1-100.6
Dec-Feb farrowing intentions 100.9 100.5-101.8
Mar-May farrowing intentions 101.2 97.6-102.0
Hogs weighing under 50 lbs 99.7 97.8-101.4
Hogs weighing 50 to 119 lbs 99.7 98.6-101.4
Hogs weighing 120-179 lbs 99.9 98.1-101.3
Hogs weighing 180 and over 100.1 99.2-101.1
The following is a breakdown of the first three categories:
All hogs Kept for Kept for
and pigs breeding marketing
Allendale, Inc. 101.0 100.4 101.1
Drake Trading Group 98.6 100.9 98.4
Frontier Risk Mgmnt 98.8 100.3 98.7
Linn Group 100.7 101.8 100.6
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.5 101.9 100.4
Robert A. Brown Inc. 99.7 100.2 99.7
University Of Missouri 99.9 101.0 99.7
U.S. Commodities 100.0 101.5 99.8

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower on weak demand ideas and on ideas of strong international competition for sales. Much of the Asian and Middle East buying interest seems to be for origins other than the US these days. Many talk of big offers from Canada and Australia right now and that they could take some US demand away. Charts show that trends in all three markets are down. Temperatures in the Midwest and Great Plains were moderate over the weekend but forecasts call for some cold weather again this week and into early January. The teemperatures do not look to get cold enough to damage crops. Weather around the world remains mostly good. Weather is good in Russia and Ukraine. Conditions have also good in Argentina and are good in Australia. Weather in North Africa is good.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions. Temperatures should below normal through Wednesday, then near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light snow off and on. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 608, 602, and 596 March, with resistance at 621, 629, and 635 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 650 March. Support is at 646, 640, and 634 March, with resistance at 662, 674, and 680 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 642, 636, and 630 March, and resistance is at 654, 660, and 666 March.

RICE
General Comments Prices closed lower in holiday market trading. Cash markets in the US remain very quiet with buyers and sellers showing little interest. Domestic demand remains light. Prices bid in the Delta and Gulf Coast remain relatively high even with the quiet market conditions as the cash market remains very tight. Farmers are not selling and most have got the Rice in storage. Asian prices were mostly a little lower last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Wednesday, then near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1522 and 1496 January. Support is at 1525, 1523, and 1505 January, with resistance at 1552, 1555, and 1565 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on speculative buying tied to little offer from US producers due to prices below the cost of production and due to speculative buying as some get out of short positions before the end of the year. Futures are in a holiday trading mode that could last until after the first of the year. Cash markets in the US are quiet. Prices are still not providing producers with any profit from the crop, so offers in the cash market remain light. Ideas are that some selling can develop above 440 March and more could be found above 450 March. Feed demand should be increasing as Corn is cheap when compared to Wheat. Speculators remain big shorts and at least some of them will continue to cover before the end of the year to book profits.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 431, 426, and 421 March, and resistance is at 441, 442, and 449 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 364, 366, and 368 March. Support is at 346, 338, and 337 March, and resistance is at 355, 359, and 363 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on forecasts for hot and dry weather this week in southern Brazil and Argentina, followed by cooler and wetter weather next week. The weather forecast will move the markets as it changes ovr the next couple of weeks. There were no new demand announcements, and traders think that China is now buying only in South America. They have bought a lot here already, and should have most needs booked until shipments can start to flow from South America in March. The current market has turned now as farmers have been selling Soybeans and domestic processors seem covered into next year. Basis levels are strong in the Corn Belt, especially for Soybean Meal where supplies are tight. Speculators are liwquidating a part of the big long position they hold, and this will help créate down side pressure on prices through the end of the year..
Overnight News: Egypt bought 114,000 tons of US Soybeans for this year and unknown destinations bought 65,000 tons of US Soybeans for the current crop 120,000 tons of US Soybeans for next year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1316, 1312, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1347, 1351, and 1353 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 468.00, 478.00, and 496.00 January. Support is at 438.00, 433.00, and 426.00 January, and resistance is at 450.00, 454.00, and 456.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3900 and 3790 January. Support is at 3900, 3840, and 3780 January, with resistance at 3980, 4020, and 4050 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower along with price action in Chicago. Speculators were net sellers. Commercials were the best buyers. Farmers were active as the market rallied as they look to get sales on the books. Trends are still down on the charts. Palm Oil was higher on currency considerations. Ideas are that the down side is limited. Talk of lower production provided a little support as big rains continue in parts of Malaysia. The export data from the private sources showed less exports tan last month, but an improving trend. More rains are forecst for Malaysia and Indonesia this week, but Philippines is seeing less rain right now The recent rains have hurt yields and made logistics difficult. Palm Oil remains in mixed trends. Weather is called good in Palm Oil áreas of Indonesia with scattered showers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 431.00 and 422.00 January. Support is at 432.00, 426.00, and 420.00 January, with resistance at 444.00, 447.00, and 483.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2645 and 2700 March. Support is at 2580, 2550, and 2520 March, with resistance at 2645, 2680, and 2690 March.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were lower on speculative long liquidation. Charts now show that trends are up. Little on offer also supported the market. New Zealand production remains very high and offers significant competition in Asian markets. New Zealand seems to be selling most of its production to China. Weather there is considered very good right now, but is too dry in Australia. Demand reports in the world market are still considered strong. However, the market acts as if most of the bullish news is now part of the price and that a correction down is very posible.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are up with objectives of 1905 and 1920 February. Support is at 1825, 1800, and 1780 February, and resistance is at 1920, 1950, and 1980 January. Trends in Cheese are up with objectives of 187.00 February. Support is at 182.00, 180.00, and 177.00 January, with resistance at 186.00, 189.00, and 192.00 February. Trends in Butter are up with no objectives. Support is at 161.00, 160.00, and 158.00 February, and resistance is at 169.00, 172.00, and 175.00 February.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Monday, December 23, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $2.0900 : N.C.
GRADE A : $2.1100 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1119C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Monday, December 23, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.9600 : .0100
40# BLOCKS : $2.0000 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.9600
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1118C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Monday, December 23, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.6000 : .0175
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.6000
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.5900
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1122C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da

Midwest Weather Forecast: Frequent periods of precipitation today and through the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 68 March 160 March 105 March 105 Jan 65 Jan 75 March
January 72 March 143 March 100 March 102 Jan
February 72 March 100 March 90 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

 

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

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