About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 25,460 lots, or 1.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 4,436 4,444 4,435 4,439 4,440 4,438 -2 100 2,676
Mar-14 – - – 4,488 4,488 4,488 0 0 36
May-14 4,495 4,500 4,475 4,499 4,488 4,489 1 15,416 77,334
Jul-14 4,462 4,462 4,455 4,455 4,460 4,458 -2 4 126
Sep-14 4,406 4,406 4,382 4,396 4,397 4,388 -9 9,364 55,484
Nov-14 – - – 4,404 4,404 4,404 0 0 126
Jan-15 4,383 4,383 4,368 4,377 4,375 4,372 -3 574 9,596
Mar-15 – - – 4,376 4,379 4,376 -3 0 70
May-15 4,382 4,382 4,382 4,382 4,384 4,382 -2 2 432
Soybean No. 2
Turnover: 2 lots, or 80800 yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 – - – 4,130 4,130 4,130 0 0 62
Mar-14 – - – 4,161 4,161 4,161 0 0 34
May-14 – - – 4,046 4,046 4,046 0 0 4
Jul-14 – - – 3,880 3,878 3,880 2 0 76
Sep-14 – - – 3,999 4,000 3,999 -1 0 16
Nov-14 4,039 4,039 4,039 4,039 4,006 4,039 33 2 4
Corn
Turnover: 87,668 lots, or 2.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 2,195 2,202 2,181 2,191 2,203 2,193 -10 482 9,164
Mar-14 2,275 2,277 2,268 2,269 2,276 2,274 -2 58 152
May-14 2,330 2,349 2,330 2,345 2,328 2,338 10 74,478 280,132
Jul-14 2,339 2,347 2,338 2,342 2,332 2,341 9 8 8
Sep-14 2,352 2,367 2,352 2,364 2,352 2,358 6 12,626 110,126
Nov-14 2,354 2,360 2,353 2,360 2,356 2,355 -1 16 20
Soymeal
Turnover: 985,890 lots, or 33.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 3,772 3,773 3,756 3,766 3,762 3,764 2 45,444 178,004
Mar-14 3,641 3,641 3,630 3,637 3,639 3,635 -4 228 1,764
May-14 3,376 3,384 3,358 3,378 3,375 3,367 -8 743,034 1,614,880
Jul-14 3,260 3,265 3,251 3,262 3,255 3,257 2 336 10,672
Aug-14 3,256 3,274 3,256 3,270 3,267 3,264 -3 122 2,676
Sep-14 3,215 3,220 3,203 3,215 3,210 3,209 -1 195,646 1,110,630
Nov-14 3,188 3,188 3,177 3,186 3,181 3,181 0 770 7,548
Dec-14 3,180 3,180 3,167 3,179 3,176 3,174 -2 310 1,136
Palm Oil
Turnover: 908,352 lots, or 55.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 5,792 5,828 5,780 5,784 5,792 5,802 10 5,172 35,022
Feb-14 – - – 6,000 6,000 6,000 0 0 8
Mar-14 – - – 5,934 5,924 5,934 10 0 8
Apr-14 – - – 6,004 6,004 6,004 0 0 12
May-14 6,050 6,094 6,040 6,046 6,046 6,060 14 756,028 466,184
Jun-14 6,060 6,126 6,060 6,086 6,070 6,088 18 16 6
Jul-14 – - – 6,160 6,192 6,160 -32 0 0
Aug-14 – - – 6,130 6,130 6,130 0 0 6
Sep-14 6,124 6,168 6,106 6,132 6,112 6,138 26 147,092 113,718
Oct-14 6,176 6,176 6,176 6,176 6,142 6,176 34 40 50
Nov-14 – - – 6,156 6,156 6,156 0 0 0
Dec-14 6,208 6,208 6,148 6,148 6,190 6,178 -12 4 0
Soybean oil
Turnover: 681,248 lots, or 47.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-14 7,002 7,014 6,958 6,994 7,024 6,980 -44 4,272 23,200
Mar-14 – - – 7,006 7,006 7,006 0 0 88
May-14 6,978 7,004 6,956 6,960 6,986 6,978 -8 609,588 874,968
Jul-14 6,972 6,972 6,972 6,972 6,988 6,972 -16 4 34
Aug-14 – - – 6,996 7,034 6,996 -38 0 32
Sep-14 7,026 7,044 6,998 7,000 7,032 7,018 -14 67,384 268,710
Nov-14 – - – 7,086 7,086 7,086 0 0 26
Dec-14 – - – 7,008 7,020 7,008 -12 0 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for December USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Dec 1 95.4 94.4-96.1
Placed in Nov 100.9 95.0-104.2
Marketed in Nov 94.6 93.7-95.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Dec 1 in Nov in Nov

Allendale Inc 95.7 103.8 95.3
CattleHedging.com 95.7 101.9 94.3
CHS 96.0 99.2 95.6
Drake Trading 95.3 101.0 94.9
Frontier Risk 95.5 102.9 95.7
HedgersEdge 95.2 99.6 94.4
Linn Group 94.5 95.2 93.7
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 94.4 95.0 94.3
North America Risk Mgmt 96.1 104.2 93.7
University of Missouri 95.9 104.2 94.8
US Commodities 95.1 100.0 94.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower once again on weak demand ideas and on ideas of strong international competition for sales. The export sles report was a little stronger tan expeted, but much of the Asian and Middle East buying interest seems to be for origins other tan the US these days. Many talk of big offers from Canada and Australia right now and that they could take some US demand away. Charts show that trends in all three markets are down. Temperatures in the Midwest and Great Plains are starting to moderate now but forecasts call for some cold weather again next week and in early January. Weather around the world remains mostly good. Weather is good in Russia and Ukraine. Conditions have also good in Argentina and are good in Australia. The Argentine government now estimates Wheat production at 9.0 million tons, from 8.5 million tons in its previous estimate. The harvest is moving along in Australia and yields are called good so far. Weather in North Africa is good.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains could get some rain and snow on Saturday, then dry weather again. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see dry conditions. Temperatures should much below normal this weekend, but will moderate next week. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 608, 602, and 596 March, with resistance at 621, 629, and 635 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 650 March. Support is at 652, 646, and 640 March, with resistance at 662, 674, and 680 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 642, 636, and 630 March, and resistance is at 660, 666, and 672 March.

RICE
General Comments Prices closed a little higher in recovery trading. It was a quiet market with little on offer after the breakdown on the charts on Wednesday. Cash markets in the US remain very quiet with buyers and sellers showing little interest. Domestic demand remains light. Prices bid in the Delta and Gulf Coast remain relatively high even with the quiet market conditions. Farmers are not selling and most have got the Rice in storage. Asian prices are mostly a little lower so far this week, but Indian prices have firmed again.
Overnight News: Mostly dry, but some precipitation could develop about Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1522 and 1496 January. Support is at 1525, 1523, and 1505 January, with resistance at 1542, 1545, and 1555 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on stronger tan expected export sales. Also, South Korea and Unknown Destinations bought US Corn, and this is most likely some of the Corn rejected by China. The sales kept hope alive for better demand through the Winter. Cash markets insie the US are quiet. Prices are still not providing producers with any profit from the crop, so offers in the cash market remain light. Ideas are that some selling can develop above 440 March and more could be found above 450 March. Feed demand should be increasing as Corn is cheap when compared to Wheat. Speculators remain big shorts and at least some of them will continue to cover before the end of the year to book profits.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 421, 419, and 416 March, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 441 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 364, 366, and 368 March. Support is at 338, 337, and 334 March, and resistance is at 356, 359, and 363 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher despite less than expected export sales. There has been no new demand announcements this week, and traders think that China is now buying only in South America. They have bought a lot here already, and should hova most needs booked until shipments can start to flow from South America in March. Argentine and southern Brazil áreas should be mostly dry for the next couple of weeks, which will allow for final planting. These áreas have seen plenty of rain in the last few weeks and the farmers need the drier weather. However, traders worry that a drought could develop and damage yields. The current market has turned now as farmers have been selling Soybeans and domestic processors seem covered into next year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1312, 1310, and 1294 January, and resistance is at 1351, 1353, and 1363 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 468.00, 478.00, and 496.00 January. Support is at 438.00, 433.00, and 426.00 January, and resistance is at 447.00, 450.00, and 454.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3900 and 3790 January. Support is at 3900, 3840, and 3780 January, with resistance at 3950, 3980, and 4020 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower. Speculators were on both sides of the market. Commercials were the best buyers. Farmers were active as the market rallied as they look to get sales on the books. Trends are still down on the charts. Palm Oil was higher on currency considerations. Ideas are that the down side is limited. Talk of lower production provided a little support as big rains continue in parts of Malaysia. The export data from the private sources showed less exports tan last month, but an improving trend. More rains are forecst for Malaysia and Indonesia this week, but Philippines is seeing less rain right now The recent rains have hurt yields and made logistics difficult. Palm Oil remains in mixed trends. Weather is called good in Palm Oil áreas of Indonesia with scattered showers.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 879,596 tons so far this month, fom 975,011 tons last month. ITS estimated exports at 883,575 tons, from 1.004 million tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 438.00, 432.00, and 426.00 January, with resistance at 447.00, 453.00, and 459.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2530 and 2440 March. Support is at 2550, 2520, and 2510 March, with resistance at 2600, 2610, and 2645 March.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were higher again. Charts now show that trends are up in Milk and in Cheese. Butter showed the weakest price action again, but is moving higher with the other markets. Little on offer also supported the market. New Zealand production remains very high and offers significant competition in Asian markets. New Zealand seems to be selling most of its production to China. Weather there is considered very good right now, but is too dry in Australia. Demand reports in the world market are still considered strong. However, the market acts as if most of the bullish news is now part of the price and that a correction down is very posible.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are up with objectives of 1940 and 2010 January. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1850 January, and resistance is at 1970, 2000, and 2030 January. Trends in Cheese are up with objectives of 194.00 January. Support is at 184.00, 182.50, and 181.00 January, with resistance at 191.00, 193.00, and 196.00 January. Trends in Butter are mixed. Support is at 160.00, 158.00, and 155.00 January, and resistance is at 166.00, 169.00, and 172.00 January.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Thursday, December 19, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $2.0900 : N.C.
GRADE A : $2.1100 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $2.1100
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1126C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Thursday, December 19, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.9300 : .0400
40# BLOCKS : $1.9850 : .0125
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.9300
1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.9850
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1118C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Thursday, December 19, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.5600 : .0100
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.5600
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.5800
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1125C (608) 278-4150
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: www.marketnews.usda.gov/portal/da

Midwest Weather Forecast: Frequent periods of precipitation today and through the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and below normal on Sunday and next week

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 66 March 160 March 105 March 102 Jan 65 Jan 150 Jan
January 71 March 143 March 100 March 100 Jan
February 70 March 100 March 90 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

 

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

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