Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures moved higher on soe speculative buying after etter tan expected export sales were reported by USDA, but held the recent trading range on reports of improved conditions in Texas. Temperaturas are much cooler in Texas and rain was reported in central and wester parts of the state, including key Cotton producing areas. The rains there are called very beneficial. Some showers are posible in the next couple of days. Conditions in Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri are below average now, but will see warm temperaturas and some showers this week, with most of the precipitation in eastern and southern areas. Some rain and cooler temperatures are posible this weekend. It is posible that futures can continue to work lower as demand has turned soft and as the weather is getting better in almost all US production areas. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and storms develop this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see drier weather this week and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.81 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.518 million bales, from 0.540 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed . Support is at 84.00, 83.55, and 83.10 October, with resistance of 85.50, 86.00, and 86.50 October.
General Comments: Futures closed lower after making new highs for the move as some profit taking seemed to develop. There is not much new surrounding the FCOJ market these days, and the tropics remain quiet for now. Growing conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good. Showers and storms are reported and conditions are said to have improved in almost the entire state. Ideas are that the better precipitation will help trees fight the greening disease. Temperatures are warm in the state, but the precipitation is the key right now. The tropics appear quiet and there are no storms in view. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather, and there are reports of stress to trees and the potential for lower production. It could turn cold in some production áreas early next week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 155.00 September. Support is at 140.00, 136.50, and 134.00 September, with resistance at 146.00, 147.00, and 149.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York on speculative buying tied to some forecasts for colder and wetter conditions for Brazil Coffee áreas starting this weekend, but found speculatove profit taking and some new producer selling to close with small losses. Forecasts call for temperatures to get cold enough to cause some frosts and perhaps a freeze in southern growing areas. In addition, the rain could disturb the last of the harvest and it could get cold enough to freeze in Parana, which is not all that far away from Coffee producing areas. Chart trends are up in all three markets. London moved higher on some buying tied to less offer from Vietnam on ideas that producers there are about sold out. Brazil weather is forecast to show dry conditions, but no cold weather for the rest of the week. It could turn wetter and colder this weekend. Current crop development is still good this year. Central America crops are seeing moderate to light rains. Colombia is still reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.752 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 123.00 ct/lb. Brazil should get dry weather except for some showers in the south. Temperatures will average near to above normal, but below normal next week with frosts and perhaps a freeze posible in southern areas. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers, and rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 140.00 September. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 120.00 September, and resistance is at 132.00, 134.00, and 135.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1940, 1900, and 1850 September, and resistance is at 1995, 2010, and 2025 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 156.00 and 164.00 September. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 140.00 September, and resistance is at 152.00, 155.00, and 159.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be some speculative buying. Speculators are very short in this market and decided to cover some of these positions in the aftermath of forecasts calling for wet and cold weather beginning this weekend in Brazil. There is not much new to talk about here so far this week. Futures trends remain down overall and price action has been weak until this week as most expect a big production surplus for the year. Many expect production to be higher overall in Brazil due to a record Sugarcane production, and countries like Thailand and India also expect more production this year. The Indian monsoon is good so far this season and this should help with Sugarcane production in the country. Northern áreas are in good shape, but southern áreas might be too hot and dry and some stress to the Sugarcane is likely. Less production of Sugarbeets is reported from Russia and Ukraine as farmers there elected top plant more grains.
Overnight News: Brazil should be mostly dry and warm this week, but could see colder and wetter weather this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1615, 1595, and 1570 October, and resistance is at 1650, 1665, and 1690 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 459.00, and 457.00 October, and resistance is at 468.00, 470.00, and 476.00 October.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying tied to ideas that the North American grind data could be very strong. The US data was much above trade expectations and should produce stronger prices today. Weather remains generally good in Africa Ghana and Nigeria would appear to have the best rains, but it remains a little too dry in many parts of Ivory Coast. Temperatures are moderate. A few showers are appearing again in Ivory Coast this week, but Ivory Coast will still need more rain. Other west African countries are reported to have good conditions. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.778 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2300, 2250, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2350, 2380, and 2440 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1640 September. Support is at 1590, 1560, and 1550 September, with resistance at 1610, 1640, and 1660 September.
DJ North American 2nd-Quarter Cocoa Grindings Rose 11.8% on Year -NCA
By Alexandra Wexler
NEW YORK–North American cocoa grindings in the second quarter climbed 11.8% from the same period a year earlier, crushing market expectations.
The grindings, or tonnage of cocoa beans processed, were the highest since at least 2001, the oldest data available from the Washington-based National Confectioners Association. Grindings are viewed as a measure of demand for chocolate.
Traders and analysts expected the report to show a 3% to 4% rise in grindings from the same period in 2012.
Total North American grindings rose by 13,276 metric tons to 126,044 tons of beans in the April-to-June period from 112,768 tons a year earlier, the NCA said Thursday. Data were collected from 17 plants in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, the same number as the previous year.
But Asian cocoa grindings for the second quarter, released Wednesday by the Cocoa Association of Asia, were positive, showing a 2% increase in beans ground from the same period in 2012.
DJ CMA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Jul 18
X-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hartteras, sellers option,
in dollars per metric ton. September quotes. Sources: Cocoa Merchants Assn
Type Jul 12 Jul 05
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 2,546 2,532
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 2,489 2,464
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 2,459 2,439
Ecuador ASE 2,406 2,397
Sanchez f.a.q. 2,396 2,387
Indonesia f.a.q 115/100 2,436 2,409
PPP Nat. African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 4,986 4,871
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 2,202 2,181
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.
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