Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: June Bonds are currently 30 lower at 142’22 and the 10 Yr. Notes 11 lower at 131’06.5. Over the weekend a bailout in Cyprus has taken place for the moment. Essentially, the 2nd largest bank in Cyprus is going into bankruptcy. Insured deposits of up to 100,000 euros will be safe, deposits above the insurable amount will be at risk for up to a 40% haircut, bond holders will take a hit, senior Bond holders will also be at risk. Is this confiscation? I’m not sure, but my gut tells me that this bank was not viable and that bankruptcy under normal circumstances (without the ECU, ECB, IMF bailout as a catalyst) would have occurred regardless. All this being said, I feel that Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal once again need to be watched closely and that flights to safety will again put a floor under the Bond market. Technically, near term support is the 142’11 area and resistance remains at 143’28. My bias has turned a little friendly at current levels and I’m a buyer on breaks with a protexctive sell stop at 141’24 for the next few days.
Grains: May Corn is currently 3’4 lower at 722’6, May Beans 7’2 lower at 1433’2, May Wheat 2’0 lower at 727’6 and Dec. Wheat 1’0 lower at 745’2. We remain long out of the money call spreads in dec. Wheat. I’m somewhat negative May Corn and will be looking to sell rallies if the market approaches the 740’0 area.
Cattle: Friday’s Cattle on Feed showed the following:
DJ Summary For USDA Monthly Cattle-On-Feed Data
The following estimates, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires, are for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly cattle-on-feed report. The report was released Friday afternoon.
Numbers USDA’s Average Range
2013 2012 estimated of analysts’ of analysts’
% of prev yr estimates estimates
On-feed March 1 10.857M 11.677M 93 93.5 92.9- 94.6
Placed in Feb 1.482M 1.714M 86 91.0 86.3- 96.3
Marketed in Feb 1.638M 1.755M 93 92.7 91.2- 96.0
Given that the on feed number was slightly below estimates, placements 5% below pre-report estimates and marketings slightly better than expected I would expect the market to rally for the near term after making an 8 month low last week. For the next few days I will be a buyer on setbacks. Cover any speculative short positions.
Silver: May Silver is currently 9 cents lower at 28.61 and June Gold 13.00 dollars lower at 1595.00. We remain long Silver. June Gold has tested support in the 1592.00 area making an overnight low of 1590.4. I’m a buyer on breaks with a 10.00 dollar risk.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 3.25 higher at 1555.25. The market has been backing off of overnight highs (1560.50) as euphoria of a Cypriot bailout deal have been abating for last few hours as reality has set in (see Financials comment). Support is currently 1536.00 and resistance the 1557.00-1561.00. Treat as a trading affair between support and resistance.
Currencies: As of this writing the June Euro is currently 50 lower at 1.2941, the Swiss 33 lower at 1.0603, the Yen 35 lower at 1.0558 and the Pound 45 lower at 1.5177. The Euro has gone from higher (overnight high 1.3094) to lower as euphoria over the Cyprus bailout has ebbed. The Dollar Index is currently 20 higher at 82.73 after making a low overnight of 81.83. If you took last weeks recommendation of going short the June DX above 82.90 either take profits or lower your buy stop to your break even level.
Questions? Ask Marc Nemenoff today at 312-264-4310
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.
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