Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday oin reports of tight domestic and world cash markets. Demand is still said to be strong, but some buyers are backing away from the market after the rally in prices. New export demand data will be released tomorrow by USDA. The rally is coming at a time when certified stocks are building as well. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some producers in the Delta are noting the recent price rally and might decide to plant more Cotton this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the month.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average mostly below normal early this week and then near to above normal, with warmest readings in the Delta. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 83.26 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.426 million bales, from 0.424 million yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 1,542 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 187,600 bales this year and40,500 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 44,900 bales this year and 9,800 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 90.80 and 93.90 May. Support is at 88.80, 86.10, and 85.80 May, with resistance of 89.20, 90.00, and 90.70 May.
DJ China Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Thursday, March 14 2013
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
CF303 19,600 19,600 0 0 0 0 0 0
CF305 20,335 20,290 45 20,395 20,400 20,260 2,912 23,156
CF307 20,260 20,200 60 20,295 20,295 20,240 30 290
CF309 20,305 20,240 65 20,375 20,395 20,210 159,476 170,224
CF311 20,320 20,305 15 20,310 20,345 20,300 96 968
CF401 20,180 20,160 20 20,250 20,250 20,120 5,436 21,916
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 5 metric tons.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower as the market paused after the big rally. Traders continue to factor in less production potential due to the greening disease and drought. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year continues. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers and could use more rain. More rain is possible there late in the week. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 137.00 May. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 124.00 May, with resistance at 141.00, 144.00, and 146.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday. Talk of a big offseason crop coming this year kept ideas that there will be a lot of Coffee for buyers around. Brazil has Coffee to sell, but production in other countries is more problematical. London prices were able to rally. The crops in Vietnam need rain but have not been getting very much. Producers there say losses could be 25% of the production of last year, and offers from there have started to move lower in volume. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and rust is now reported in Peru. Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop, although there are a few showers around. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions, but some now talk of less than expected production.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.725 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 133.10 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 113 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2230 May. Support is at 2170, 2160, and 2140 May, and resistance is at 2220, 2230, and 2250 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 177.00, 174.00, and 171.00 September, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trading. Many are still saying that big supplies are coming to the market. Chart trends in London and New York are mostly up, but the bulls have not been able to push New York prices above 1900 May, at least not yet. Ample offers seem to appear above that level. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves below 1800 in New York. Reports indicate that the Chinese have been using price weakness to buy more Sugar than the trade had anticipated. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. Reports from Brazil say that the new crop production looks to be strong, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Exports from other countries are said to be less than expected.
Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Brazil produced 34.09 million tons of Sugar through February, up 8.9% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1900 and 1990 May. Support is at 1850, 1835, and 1815 May, and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1940 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 531.00, 529.00, and 527.00 May, and resistance is at 540.00, 541.00, and 544.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in consolidation trding. Most of the recent buying seemed to be chart based, but there was some talk of new demand again. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and somewhat wet in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 840 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.350 million bags. LIFFE March deliveries were 72,350 tons.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2130, 2110, and 2085 May, with resistance at 2175, 2190, and 2220 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1490 and 1565 May. Support is at 1450, 1435, and 1405 May, with resistance at 1475, 1495, and 1520 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.
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