Morning Grains 3/14/13

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar. 15, 2013 1 Feb 20, 2013
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 15, 2013 23 Feb 28, 2013
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 15, 2013 5 Feb 28, 2013
OATS March Mar. 15, 2013 8 Feb 26, 2013
SOYBEAN March Mar. 15, 2013 16 Mar 04, 2013
WHEAT March Mar. 15, 2013 7 Mar 05, 2013

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Mar 14
For the week ended Mar 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 888.5 198.5 24227.2 24648.0 5467.4 1030.5
corn 282.3 371.0 14778.7 32135.6 4933.5 2233.9
soybeans 657.7 126.0 35497.4 30484.6 3825.5 4663.6
soymeal 51.7 0.0 7522.5 5325.5 1671.8 100.2
soyoil 6.0 0.0 795.4 293.2 149.2 1.0
upland cotton 187.6 40.5 10436.7 10742.6 3672.0 989.3
pima cotton 44.9 9.8 714.0 560.1 271.7 48.4
sorghum 31.0 0.0 1072.3 611.3 185.2 25.2
barley 9.0 0.0 133.0 84.8 2.2 3.6
rice 60.9 0.0 2584.7 2188.9 622.1 0.1

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 129,814 lots, or 6.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-13 – - – 5,193 5,193 4,905 -288 0 0
May-13 4,848 4,881 4,848 4,877 4,877 4,869 -8 4,336 59,488
Jul-13 4,767 4,767 4,767 4,767 4,769 4,767 -2 2 20
Sep-13 4,701 4,721 4,690 4,716 4,715 4,706 -9 114,278 186,554
Nov-13 4,684 4,700 4,666 4,666 4,688 4,688 0 16 186
Jan-14 4,680 4,693 4,663 4,688 4,678 4,679 1 10,706 86,882
Mar-14 – - – 4,730 4,730 4,730 0 0 16
May-14 4,757 4,777 4,751 4,773 4,760 4,762 2 476 3,484
Jul-14 – - – 4,805 4,805 4,805 0 0 6
Soybean No. 2
Turnover: 32 lots, or 1.44 million yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-13 – - – 4,500 4,500 4,500 0 0 0
May-13 – - – 4,507 4,507 4,507 0 0 224
Jul-13 – - – 4,663 4,663 4,663 0 0 8
Sep-13 4,501 4,513 4,501 4,513 4,541 4,507 -34 32 14
Nov-13 – - – 4,873 4,873 4,873 0 0 2
Jan-14 – - – 4,565 4,565 4,565 0 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 81,830 lots, or 1.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-13 – - – 2,370 2,370 2,370 0 0 0
May-13 2,381 2,382 2,378 2,380 2,380 2,380 0 9,790 151,978
Jul-13 2,439 2,443 2,439 2,442 2,440 2,440 0 100 574
Sep-13 2,450 2,451 2,442 2,445 2,448 2,445 -3 61,564 382,638
Nov-13 2,422 2,422 2,415 2,415 2,417 2,418 1 4 90
Jan-14 2,343 2,346 2,339 2,342 2,344 2,343 -1 10,372 39,194
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,666,012 lots, or 121.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-13 – - – 3,930 3,930 3,930 0 0 0
May-13 3,659 3,662 3,621 3,638 3,676 3,640 -36 449,722 733,276
Jul-13 3,492 3,493 3,439 3,462 3,512 3,463 -49 232 552
Aug-13 3,408 3,428 3,396 3,406 3,456 3,410 -46 210 522
Sep-13 3,310 3,310 3,261 3,273 3,337 3,283 -54 2,995,566 1,539,114
Nov-13 3,257 3,269 3,230 3,249 3,274 3,244 -30 154 654
Dec-13 3,221 3,247 3,220 3,228 3,246 3,230 -16 100 460
Jan-14 3,130 3,150 3,122 3,136 3,148 3,134 -14 220,028 427,686
Palm Oil
Turnover: 800,310 lots, or 50.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-13 – - – 5,830 5,830 6,016 186 0 0
Apr-13 5,702 5,720 5,702 5,710 5,924 5,714 -210 32 94
May-13 5,902 6,010 5,902 5,910 6,060 5,948 -112 97,130 183,442
Jun-13 6,082 6,082 6,068 6,068 6,172 6,072 -100 22 606
Jul-13 6,350 6,350 6,252 6,252 6,512 6,284 -228 6 34
Aug-13 6,260 6,260 6,220 6,220 6,358 6,242 -116 6 26
Sep-13 6,350 6,358 6,246 6,264 6,396 6,290 -106 670,986 598,912
Oct-13 6,380 6,382 6,264 6,264 6,456 6,312 -144 44 24
Nov-13 6,394 6,432 6,344 6,344 6,894 6,406 -488 40 32
Dec-13 – - – 7,312 7,312 7,312 0 0 4
Jan-14 6,420 6,444 6,330 6,374 6,470 6,378 -92 32,044 50,108
Feb-14 – - – 6,544 6,544 6,544 0 0 8
Soybean oil
Turnover: 885,022 lots, or 71.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-13 – - – 7,872 7,872 7,872 0 0 0
May-13 7,750 8,036 7,750 7,944 8,040 7,972 -68 26,504 178,236
Jul-13 8,004 8,004 8,004 8,004 8,224 8,004 -220 2 20
Aug-13 8,016 8,054 8,016 8,054 8,096 8,042 -54 12 22
Sep-13 8,040 8,078 7,976 8,008 8,062 8,022 -40 835,972 698,814
Nov-13 8,066 8,114 8,022 8,054 8,110 8,050 -60 246 46
Dec-13 8,090 8,090 8,032 8,032 8,044 8,036 -8 22 34
Jan-14 8,100 8,136 8,052 8,076 8,120 8,086 -34 22,264 84,274
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

DJ China Zhengzhou Rice Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
ER303 2,693 2,693 0 0 0 0 0 20
ER305 2,626 2,626 0 2,627 2,630 2,618 4,854 18,922
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher as traders liquidated Corn and Soybeans and bought Wheat on spreads Corn. US prices are still considered cheap and supplies of Wheat are available. Chicago Wheat prices continue to trade close to Corn and are being bought as feed grain. Domestic demand is said to be strong, especially for SRW, as Corn has been hard to find and Corn basis has been very strong. Demand overall has been disappointing even though sales amounts for export have been increasing in recent weeks and domestic demand now is said to be strong for feed needs.. Domestic and world demand could improve more as the US SRW is still about the cheapest Wheat in the world and one of the cheapest feed grains. Corn prices are still high in the US and could work higher as traders try to ration domestic demand, so domestic use should remain strong. Ideas are that importers will continue to buy mostly from the US due to price and availability.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas could see mostly dry weather until some snow appears Monday. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures will average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 696, 682, and 679 May, with resistance at 722, 727, and 731 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 724, 716, and 707 May, with resistance at 742, 744, and 761 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 780, 777, and 768 May, and resistance is at 800, 811, and 824 May.

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed sharply lower to limit down on what appeared to be aggressive speculator selling. Commercials were there to buy it, but were not prepared for all of the selling they saw. There is talk that Rice is coming from Vietnam for Texas, and that this could have triggered the selling, but nothing has appeared in the press about it and the talk of it is now several days old. The market still feels selling pressure from speculators who see the price weakness overseas, but not the tight markets here in the US. There is still little on offer in the US due to the low prices and producers appear to have sold out already or hold only minimal stocks. Prices at the farm in Arkansas are now equal to those in futures. Some areas in the Delta are now too wet and some producers say the region needs at least a couple of weeks of dry weather before any serious fieldwork can get done. The weather should turn drier for this week, and Texas planting should continue while fields farther north dry out. It is still very early in the season, so there is time to recover, and it is still too early for farmers to switch from one crop to another, but the weather will need to turn a little warmer and drier soon.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal early in the week and near to above normal late in the week.
Chart Analysis Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1476, 1464, and 1452 May, with resistance at 1500, 1518, and 1524 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on speculative selling that was also seen in Rice and the Soy complex, and despite tight cash markets and extremely high basis levels. Some traders said that demand was weaker and pointed to the Sorghum sale to unknown destinations as proof. Farmers are not selling much and the domestic demand seems strong. Export demand remains weak. Basis levels were stronger yesterday even with the rally in futures prices. Feed demand is called strong, and ethanol demand will start to increase now. Trends are trying to turn up in Corn. Current weather forecasts feature good crop conditions in northern sections of Brazil. More snow and rain was reported in the Midwest over the weekend, but this week looks dry once the system moves through. A few small systems could move through this weekend and next week but will not bring a lot of precipitation to the region. Basis remains high as producers are not selling and might not have that much left for selling in any event.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 701, 693, and 688 May, and resistance is at 717, 720, and 727 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 382, 379, and 376 May, and resistance is at 396, 400, and 401 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on ideas of weaker demand. No new export sales have been announced this week and basis levels were reported weaker in US FOB export markets in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Northwest. Ideas are that the demand for US Soybeans will stay strong and that prices here have higher to go, but no new switching of demand from South America to North America has been seen so far this week. It could be that China has enough for the minute and wants to see the progress Brazil makes on its logistical issues before switching more as costs are far higher for Soybeans here in the US. Big old crop demand potential remains in the forefront as the sales are more than what the US can theoretically afford to do. The sales are coming at the expense of Brazil, where loading delays at ports are now extreme. Ideas that some demand for South American Soybeans can switch to here for a few weeks due in part to the now abandoned port strike and other logistical problems in Brazil go against ideas of big production coming from South America in a matter of days. It is possible that many of these sales will be cancelled once the Soybeans start to flow from Brazil ports. It is more likely now that South America will be selling and shipping Soybeans well into the new crop season here. Bears continue to sell rallies in Chicago as they anticipate big offers very soon from South America that will hurt US export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1431, 1411, and 1397 May. Support is at 1433, 1421, and 1418 May, and resistance is at 1467, 1485, and 1489 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 420.00, 406.00, and 402.00 May. Support is at 424.00, 420.00, and 412.00 May, and resistance is at 433.00, 443.00, and 444.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4900, 4810, and 4730 May. Support is at 4900, 4870, and 4840 May, with resistance at 4985, 5015, and 5180 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on weakness in Chicago. Ideas of tight supplies continue to support Canola overall, but ideas of weakening demand hurt the bull case. Many feel that futures must help ration demand so the country does not run out before the next harvest. Chart patterns turning down. Lower prices now imply that bull spreads should be favored. Palm Oil was lower in sympathy with price action in Chicago and on ideas that Big Brazil offers are not that far away. Smaller stocks levels in Malaysia are expected to support prices overall. Ideas are that a seasonal low in production is at hand and that stocks could drop a little bit in coming months. Traders worry about less demand overall and less bio fuels demand in particular. China is said to have big supplies on hand right now which could hurt demand in the short term, but ideas are that India could become a big buyer, and especially of refined producers. However, India is said to have big supplies as well as traders there bought before a tax increase could be imposed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 615.00 and 604.00 May. Support is at 617.00, 614.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 629.00, 638.00, and 644.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2310 June, with resistance at 2440, 2470, and 2500 June.

DJ India February Edible Oil Imports Rise 9% On-Year – Association
By Debiprasad Nayak
MUMBAI–India’s edible oil imports in February rose 9% from a year earlier to 954,176 metric tons due to cheaper palm oil prices and lower domestic supply, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said Thursday.
India is the world’s top edible oil importer. It buys more than half of its needs, with palm oil accounting for about 70% of shipments.
Palm oil imports during February jumped 21% to 805,362 tons, while imports of other edible oils such as soyoil and sunflower oil declined during the period, the trade body said.
Rising imports from India may support palm oil prices, which have been depressed due to concerns over a worldwide glut. Dorab Mistry, a leading vegoil analyst and edible oil trading head at Godrej International Ltd., said last week that global palm oil production is likely to expand by 3.9 million tons and that he sees huge supplies of soybeans and sunflower seeds after September.
Crude palm-oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell Wednesday to their lowest in two months.
Imports of edible oils to India have also risen because of the tighter supply of soybean, the country’s largest oilseed crop, as the harvesting season is almost over.
Higher imports pushed up edible oil stocks at ports, which rose by 11% to 930,000 tons as on March 1, the trade body said.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were mixed again. Milk and Cheese were lower, while Butter and Whey moved higher or showed little change. Trends might be turning up on the charts for Whey. Futures are trying to complete lows and make more recovery rallies after the big moves lower seen in the last several weeks. The turn would be demand based as exports could improve due to less production potential in New Zealand. Traders want to stay bearish the futures market for a while longer, especially in Cheese and Milk. Traders cite the seasonal increase in milk production coming soon. Export demand is also said to be poor right now, but prices now seem weak enough to create new demand. It is possible that Dairy futures will form some important lows in this area, especially if Midwest weather remains cold and stormy. It remains too dry in New Zealand, and this is supporting international prices. Milk and dairy production estimates for New Zealand are dropping again, and Europe and the US should benefit by at least a limited amount.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed to down with objectives of 1660 April. Support is at 1695, 1685, and 1650 April, and resistance is at 1725, 1740, and 1760 April. Trends in Cheese are down with objectives of 163.00 and 158.50 April. Support is at 165.00, 162.00, and 160.00 April, with resistance at 167.50, 169.00, and 170.00 April. Trends in Butter are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 and 176.00 April. Support is at 164.00, 162.00, and 161.00 April, and resistance is at 167.00, 169.00, and 171.50 April. Trends in Whey are up with no objectives. Support is at 5600, 5500, and 5400 April, with resistance at 5900, 6000, and 6200 April.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Wednesday, March 13, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.5600 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.4975 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.4700
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1126C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Wednesday, March 13, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.5875 : .0050
40# BLOCKS : $1.6000 : -.0025
——————————————————————
SALES: 5 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
3 @ $1.6025, 2 @ $1.6000
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.5875
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.6025
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1127C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Wednesday, March 13, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.6300 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.6300
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.6250
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1126C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain possible this weekend.

FOB Gulf of Mexico of Mexico Basis Levels:
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 72 May 125 May 68 May 78 May 30-May 100 May
April 67 May 125 May 70 May 88 May
May 54 May 60 May 60 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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