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Financials: June Bonds are currently 10 higher at 141’08 and the 10 Yr. Note 5.5 higher at 131’21.0. Since my last letter on March 7th, we have seen a Monthly Employment Report which showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of 236.00 vs. expectations of 170-180,000 which has since seen the Bonds drop from the March 7th level of 142’15 to the March 8th low of 140’14. On last Thursday we took profits ahead of the Employment Report on long 10 Yr. Note/short Bond and long 5 Yr. Note/short 10 Yr. Note spreads. I now recommend taking profits on any long put option and/or long put spreads. I am now willing to look at the Bonds as a trading affair between the 140’20 and 142’26 levels. My bias has changed from negative to neutral.
Grains: May Corn is currently 1’0 higher at 712’2, May Beans 7’6 lower at 1472’0, May Wheat 0’6 lower at 699’2 and Dec. Wheat 1’4 lower at 720’0. We remain long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Wheat. Last Friday’s Supply/ Demand Report showed Corn supplies somewhat tighter than expected and Beans and Wheat slightly more than expected. The result has been a 20 cent rally in Corn and little price movement in Beans and Wheat. I am currently on the sidelines having missed a buying opportunity in Corn.
Cattle: Apr. Live Cattle are currently 15 higher at 128.27 and Apr. Feeder Cattle 7 lower at 141.30. Both Live and Feeder markets made cnew recent lows yesterday as the market has been reacting to both sluggish demand and higher feed grain prices. That being said, my bias remains negative but given the recent declines I expect a short covering rally and bottom picking and recommend covering any speculative short positions and standing aside.
Silver: May Silver is currently 40 cents higher at 29.27 and Apr. Gold 14.00 higher at 1592.00. We remain long a small position in Silver. Apr. Gold has broken out to the upside of its recent range of the mid 1560’s to the mis 1580’s. A close above 1597.00 could signal a trend change to the upside in Gold. I will stand aside and await any technical developments.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 2.00 lower at 1448.50. This market continues to defy gravity. Treat as a trading market between 1538.00 and 1557.00.
Currencies: As of this writing The Mar. Euro is currently unchanged at 1.3042, the Swiss 13 higher at 1.0567, the Yen 26 higher at 1.0415 and the Pound 41 lower at 1.4889. The bias is beginning to turn neutral from negative at the moment as I feel these markets are oversold.
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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.
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