Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. January Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Mar 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jan 2012—- —-Dec 2012—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 109,297,989 241,002,066 92,151,557 203,194,183
coffee, roasted 5,313,042 11,715,258 7,681,188 16,937,020
instant 3,876,868 8,548,494 3,494,120 7,704,535
cocoa beans 48,611,619 107,188,620 36,535,508 80,560,795
10 lbs or over 1,779,129 3,922,979 1,344,570 2,964,777
for retail candy 300 662 0 0
cocoa butter 5,709,432 12,589,298 7,552,499 16,653,260
not defatted 851,405 1,877,348 1,335,629 2,945,062
defatted 8,048,676 17,747,331 7,878,486 17,372,062
unsweetened 6,418,342 14,152,444 9,869,686 21,762,658
sweetened 6,060 13,362 16,296 35,933
coating 2,242,070 4,943,764 1,797,968 3,964,519
chocolate 6,635,042 14,630,268 7,129,514 15,720,578
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday on some long liquidation before the monthly USDA supply and demand estimates that will be released later today. Traders in general expect few changes. Meanwhile, demand is still said to be strong even though USDA has made no announcements so far this week. Talk indicates that the buying was active over the weekend and has remained active early this week. Ideas of less planted area also supported Cotton futures again, but most of the talk was of the new demand. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the month. Texas areas should turn drier for the rest of the week. Delta and Southeast areas will see mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions through tomorrow, then a wave of showers from west to east. Temperatures will average mostly below normal this week and then near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather except for some light showers tomorrow. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA spot price is now 80.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.413 million bales, from 0.429 million yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 1,542 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 89.00 May. Support is at 85.80, 85.20, and 84.00 May, with resistance of 87.50, 88.90, and 89.20 May.
DJ SURVEY: USDA March 2012-13 U.S. Cotton Harvest Estimates
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bales for 2012-13 U.S. cotton production, exports and ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires ahead of the March federal forecasts. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated estimates at 12:00 pm EST Friday.
Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Average Range USDA USDA
Production (9) 17.1 17.0-17.2 17.0 15.6
Exports (9) 12.6 12.4-13.0 12.5 11.7
Ending Stocks (9) 4.4 4.1-4.8 4.5 3.4
Production Exports Ending Stocks
Citigroup 17.0 12.5 4.5
Daniels Trading 17.0 13.0 4.3
Eastern Trading 17.2 12.4 4.8
Flanagan Trading 17.0 12.6 4.4
INTL FCStone 17.1 12.7 4.4
John Robinson 17.0 12.5 4.5
Knight Futures 17.0 12.8 4.1
Plexus Cotton 17.2 12.7 4.5
Rabobank 17.0 12.5 4.5
DJ China Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Friday, March 8 2013
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
CF303 19,440 19,435 5 19,440 19,440 19,440 10 588
CF305 20,265 20,260 5 20,215 20,310 20,180 2,634 25,230
CF307 20,210 20,125 85 20,210 20,210 20,210 4 236
CF309 20,175 20,185 -10 20,115 20,250 20,065 124,188 156,982
CF311 20,275 20,280 -5 20,260 20,320 20,250 46 1,102
CF401 20,155 20,140 15 20,105 20,175 20,090 2,990 21,632
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 5 metric tons.
General Comments: Futures closed higher as traders prepared for the USDA monthly reports tomorrow. Traders are looking for less Oranges production in the state of Florida due to the greening disease and dry weather. The frosts and freezes seen last weekend could also affect current production, but are more likely to affect production potential for next year as flowers could be lost. Temperatures had been warm in the state until the weekend, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Crop development is reported to be far enough along that some damage or loss is possible. Some buds could have been lost and that will mean less production potential for next year if the loss is confirmed. Traders also note that dry weather is stressing trees and could hurt overall production potential for next year. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers and could use more rain. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 118.00 May, with resistance at 125.00, 129.00, and 132.00 May.
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday after news reports noted less offers and shipments from Vietnam due to drought there. The crops there need rain but have not been getting very much if any, and there is no relief in sight. Producers there say losses could be 25% of the production of last year. Ideas of big supplies, mostly from Brazil, keep the selling alive. Some support came from more reports of severe rust damage in Central America. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it are still in the press, and rust is now reported in Peru. Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Vietnam producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses due to prolonged drought in the Central Highlands. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.715 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 133.21 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 108 contracts. Brazil exported 1.94 million bags of Coffee in February, down 2% from last year. Marketing year to date exports are now 20.93 million bags, down 5.2% from last year. LIFFE stocks are now 12,582 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2180 and 2230 May. Support is at 2130, 2115, and 2100 May, and resistance is at 2170, 2190, and 2205 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 177.00, 174.00, and 171.00 September, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying. Chart trends in London and New York are now up. Futures seem to uncover new consumptive demand every time the market moves lower, and it seems that the bearish talk of big supplies for the coming year might be part of the price structure. Brazil will start to offer a little less as mills there prepare for greater domestic Ethanol demand as blends for cars have been changed by the government. The blend will contain 25% ethanol, from 20% now. Middle East demand seems stronger as well as the festival season approaches. This was shown by the big purchases by Iraq last week. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help offset increased sugarcane production. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Exports from other countries are said to be less than expected, but the Brazil offer keeps futures from doing much these days.
Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1900 and 1990 May. Support is at 1825, 1815, and 1790 May, and resistance is at 1900, 1920, and 1940 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 527.00, 523.00, and 510.00 May, and resistance is at 535.00, 540.00, and 541.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed higher after making newlows for the move in early trading. Futures have tested into target áreas for the move and could experience a short covering rally for the next few sessions. Ideas of new demand at the current lower prices helped créate the rally. Representatives of Barry Callebrut talked about this at a press conference earlier in the week. Market trends are still down overall. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand and that the main crop harvest is over in Western Africa and much of Asia so that supplies on offer could also be less. The weather is forecast to be warm and dry in West Africa this week. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 826 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.366 million bags. LIFFE stocks are 5,307 standard units, 176 large units, and 6 bulk units.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2050, 2020, and 1990 May. Support is at 2035, 2020, and 2000 May, with resistance at 2085, 2100, and 2110 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1365 May. Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1330 May, with resistance at 1405, 1435, and 1450 May.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.
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