Morning Grains 3/5/13

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar. 06, 2013 112 Feb 27, 2013
ROUGH RICE March Mar. 06, 2013 31 Feb 26, 2013
SOYBEAN March Mar. 06, 2013 1 Jul 02, 2012
WHEAT March Mar. 06, 2013 216 Feb 28, 2013

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Mar 4
Source: USDA
For the week ending Feb 28, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Feb 28 Feb 21 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 652.6 576.1 473.7 18,841.0 20,241.5
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Oats 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.5 6.1
Barley 0.7 0.0 1.9 123.0 130.2
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.9 1.3
Corn 399.8 298.3 789.5 9,251.2 21,235.6
Sorghum 43.9 12.5 19.8 1,156.7 881.3
Soybeans 1,096.1 755.6 906.1 31,224.9 24,725.7
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 2,193.2 1,642.5 2,191.1 60,616.2 67,221.8
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

DJ SURVEY: March US Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2012-13 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at 12:00 p.m. EST (1700 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Feb
2012-13 2011-12
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (19) 0.649 0.627-0.750 0.632 0.989
Soybeans (19) 0.122 0.107-0.131 0.125 0.169
Wheat (17) 0.713 0.671-0.754 0.691 0.743
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ADM Investor Services 0.632 0.125 0.701
AgriSource 0.640 0.120 0.680
Agrivisor 0.632 0.125 0.671
Allendale 0.662 0.120 0.741
Alpari 0.632 0.123 0.695
Citigroup 0.638 0.130 0.692
Doane Advisory Srvcs 0.632 0.125 0.726
Farm Futures 0.671 0.115 0.741
Futures International 0.632 0.110 0.691
Global Comm Analytics 0.639 0.107 0.706
Jefferies Bache 0.682 0.120 0.741
Kropf and Love 0.632 0.125 0.691
Newedge USA 0.632 0.125 0.754
Prime Ag Consultants 0.632 0.125 0.741
Rice Dairy 0.632 0.120 0.692
Risk Management Commodities 0.750 0.131 n/a
RJ O’Brien 0.695 0.125 0.722
US Commodities 0.627 0.120 n/a
Water Street Solutions 0.632 0.125 0.731

DJ SURVEY: March World Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for 2012-13 world grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its world supply-and-demand report at noon EST (1700 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Feb
2012-13 2011-12
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (10) 117.87 116.00-120.00 118.04 131.01
Soybeans (11) 59.58 58.00-60.60 60.12 55.25
Wheat (11) 176.69 174.50-179.00 176.73 196.54
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ADM Investor Services 120.00 60.00 178.00
Agrivisor 116.50 60.00 176.00
Allendale 117.98 59.22 177.12
Alpari 118.50 60.20 177.00
Doane Advisory Services n/a 59.00 175.23
Farm Futures 116.00 58.00 174.50
Futures International 116.50 60.60 176.20
Jefferies Bache 119.00 59.50 178.00
Kropf and Love 117.04 59.12 176.73
Prime Ag Consultants 119.00 60.00 179.00
Water Street Solutions 118.20 59.70 175.80

DJ SURVEY: March Argentina, Brazil Corn, Soybean Production
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Argentina and Brazil soybean and corn production, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its world supply and demand report at noon EST (1700 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Feb 2011/12
Average Range USDA Output
Argentina
Corn (16) 25.6 24.0-27.0 27.0 21.0
Soybeans (17) 51.0 48.5-53.0 53.0 40.1
Brazil
Corn (16) 72.6 71.6-73.5 72.5 73.0
Soybeans (17) 83.4 82.0-84.5 83.5 66.5
Argentina Brazil
Corn Soy Corn Soy
ADM Investor Services 25.5 51.0 72.5 83.5
Agrivisor 25.0 50.5 72.0 82.5
Allendale 26.0 51.5 72.5 83.5
Alpari 26.5 52.0 72.8 84.0
Citigroup 26.0 50.3 73.0 83.8
Doane Advisory Srvcs 26.0 50.0 72.5 83.5
Farm Futures 25.5 50.0 73.0 83.0
Futures Intl 24.5 51.0 73.0 84.0
Global Comm Analytics n/a 50.5 n/a 82.5
*Informa 25.0 51.0 71.6 84.5
Jefferies Bache 26.0 52.0 73.0 83.5
Kropf and Love 26.0 52.0 72.5 83.5
Newedge USA 25.0 48.5 72.5 82.0
Prime Ag Consultants 27.0 53.0 72.5 83.5
Rice Dairy 25.0 51.0 72.0 83.0
US Commodities 24.0 51.0 72.0 83.0
Water Street Solutions 26.0 52.0 73.5 83.8
*From traders

NEW CME TRADING HOURS BEGINNING APRIL 8, 2013
Beginning April 8, electronic and floor trading hours for CBOT Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rough Rice, Oats, and KCBT Wheat futures and options, plus all related CBOT and KCBT calendar spread options and inter-commodity spread options, will be amended as follows:
• Sunday to Friday, electronic trading from 7:00 p.m. to 7:45 a.m. CT
• Monday to Friday, break in electronic trading from 7:45 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. CT
• Monday to Friday, floor and CME Globex trading from 8:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. CT
Daily settlements for CME Globex and floor trading of these products will be based on market activity at or around 1:15 p.m. CT each day. Mini-Sized Corn, Mini-Sized Soybeans and Mini-Sized Wheat will continue to trade on CME Globex and on the floor until 1:45 p.m. CT.

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday as Wheat areas in the Great Plains continue to improve with each passing storm. There is talk of another system moving through the Great Plains this weekend. World Wheat markets showed good demand yesterday, but only a small amount of the Wheat traded was US origin. US prices are still considered cheap and supplies of Wheat are available. Domestic demand is said to be improving as Corn has been hard to find and Corn basis has been very strong. Demand overall has been disappointing even though sales amounts for export have been increasing in recent weeks and domestic demand now is said to be strong for feed needs. Chart patterns are mixed. Domestic and world demand could improve more as the US SRW is still about the cheapest Wheat in the world and one of the cheapest feed grains. Corn prices are still high in the US and could work higher as traders try to ration domestic demand, so domestic use should remain strong. Ideas are that importers will continue to buy mostly from the US due to price and availability.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal early in the week and near to above normal late in the week. Northern areas could see mostly dry weather after some snow today. Temperatures should average mostly below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 698, 691, and 679 May, with resistance at 708, 731, and 741 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 733, 716, and 707 May, with resistance at 745, 761, and 774 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 787, 782, and 764 May. Support is at 789, 785, and 781 May, and resistance is at 800, 810, and 824 May.

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed lower along with weakness in the other grains. Reports of more precipitation in the forecast for Winter Wheat areas hurt grains in general even though the Soy complex was able to rally on demand ideas. The market still feels selling pressure from speculators who see the price weakness overseas, but not the tight markets here in the US. There is still little on offer in the US due to the low prices and as many producers have already sold quite a bit of Rice. Some areas in the Delta are now too wet and some producers say the region needs at least a couple of weeks of dry weather before any serious fieldwork can get done. The weather should turn drier for the next week or so, and Texas planting should continue while fields farther north dry out. It is still very early in the season, so there is time to recover, and it is still too early for farmers to switch from one crop to another, but the weather will need to turn a little warmer and drier soon.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1554, 1542, and 1532 May, with resistance at 1572, 1587, and 1600 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday, mostly in sympathy with the selling in Wheat. Corn rallied on very tight domestic supplies and very strong domestic basis levels. Export demand remains weak, but basis levels remain very strong in the interior US as farmers are not selling. There was some more talk late last week that many producers have 15% or less of the crop left to sell, one reason why they are not offering despite the very high interior basis levels. Feed demand is called strong, and some say that ethanol demand will start to increase now, too, especially if futures prices continue to weaken. However, trends are starting to turn up in Corn again. Current weather forecasts feature showers in northern sections of Brazil, but forecasts call for drier weather than has been seen in recent weeks. Beneficial rains have been reported in southern Brazil and Argentina and are expected to continue. Ideas of tight supplies and on reports of very strong basis level in the Midwest provided support, but forecasts for improved snow and rain in the Midwest this week are negative. Basis remains high as producers are not selling and might not have that much left for selling in any event.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 699, 696, and 688 May, and resistance is at 713, 717, and 720 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 391 and 409 May. Support is at 379, 373, and 370 May, and resistance is at 391, 393, and 400 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on ideas of strong export demand. The export inspections report showed strong loadings and the US does not have much supply left. The wait at Brazil ports is estimated at 51 days or longer, a very long time and a lot of demurrage for those chartering ships to pay. Some of the demand for South American Soybeans has shifted to the US as a result. Ideas that some demand for South American Soybeans can switch to here for a few weeks due in part to the now abandoned port strike and other logistical problems in Brazil go against ideas of big production coming from South America in a matter of days. It is possible that many of these sales will be cancelled once the Soybeans start to flow from Brazil ports. Argentina forecasts call for chances for precipitation this week. Southern Brazil has about the same forecast as Argentina, but the precipitation could be more in that area. Bears continue to sell rallies in Chicago as they anticipate big offers very soon from South America that will hurt US export demand. Northern and central areas of Brazil are getting too much rain and the harvest progress is being affected. However, the harvest is progressing and sources in Brazil say that production will be ready to ship soon, which is about normal. That part of Brazil is mostly dry this week. The overall Soybeans demand continues and there is still the threat that the US will sell all it has before too much longer, so the down side for prices could be limited. The down side for prices could also be limited due to the strong domestic and export demand.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destionations bought 330,000 tons of current crop Soybeans nd China bought 345,000 tons of new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1433, 1421, and 1418 May, and resistance is at 1468, 1477, and 1489 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 424.00, 420.00, and 411.00 May, and resistance is at 441.00, 444.00, and 445.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5195 and 5415 May. Support is at 4975, 4930, and 4900 May, with resistance at 5030, 5060, and 5100 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday on the strength in other oilseeds futures markets. Many speculators were good buyers. Commercials were said to be the best buyers. Old crop months were stronger on ideas that farmers are not selling, although wire reports after the close noted scale up elevator offers. Ideas of tight supplies continue to support Canola overall. Chart patterns are mixed. Palm Oil was lower as the annual Palm Oil conference got underway. Some private production estimates will be released and could influence prices. Traders are watching a situation in Sabah, where there is an armed clash against the government by Filipino Moslems. Traders worry about less demand overall and less bio fuels demand in particular. China is said to have big supplies on hand right now which could hurt demand in the short term, but ideas are that India could become a big buyer, and especially of refined producers. However, India is said to have big supplies as well as traders there bought before a tax increase could be imposed. Traders are watching the weather developments in South America, where conditions are better and the harvest is progressing in Brazil. Malaysia and Indonesia are looking at above normal rainfall which has been considered mostly good for production prospects.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 611.00, 604.00, and 603.00 May, with resistance at 629.00, 631.00, and 638.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2295 May. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2310 May, with resistance at 2420, 2450, and 2480 May.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were higher as the market moved into a basing trade. Good demand was seen at the cash auctions yesterday. Cheese demand was very strong. Futures are trying to complete lows and make more recovery rallies after the big moves lower seen in the last several weeks. Traders want to stay bearish the futures market for a while longer, especially in Cheese and Milk. Traders cite the seasonal increase in milk production coming soon. Export demand is also said to be poor right now, but prices now seem weak enough to create new demand. It is possible that Dairy futures will form some important lows in this area, especially if Midwest weather remains cold and stormy
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 1695, 1685, and 1680 April, and resistance is at 1725, 1740, and 1760 April. Trends in Cheese are mixed to down with objectives of 167.50 April. Support is at 168.00, 165.00, and 162.00 April, with resistance at 170.00, 172.00, and 173.50 April. Trends in Butter are mixed. Support is at 162.00, 161.00, and 160.00 April, and resistance is at 164.00, 165.00, and 166.00 April. Trends in Whey are mixed. Support is at 5600, 5500, and 5400 April, with resistance at 5700, 5800, and 5900 April.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Monday, March 4, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.5600 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.4975 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1137C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Monday, March 4, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.5350 : -.0250
40# BLOCKS : $1.5500 : -.0250
——————————————————————
SALES: 4 CARS BARRELS:
2 @ $1.5500, 2 @ $1.5350
5 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
1 @ $1.5550, 4 @ $1.5500
LAST BID UNFILLED: 3 CARS BARRELS @ $1.5300
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.5500
2 CARS 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5600
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1138C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Monday, March 4, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)

——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.5900 : .0150
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.5900
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1136C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Moderate to heavy snow and rain today as another Winter storm passes through, then some rain possible this weekend. Temperatures average near to below normal early in the week and near to above normal later in the week.

FOB Gulf of Mexico of Mexico Basis Levels:
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 82 May 123 May 65 May 67 March 34 March 100 May
April 75 May 65 May 63 May
May 54 May 65 May 65 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.