Morning Grains 1/22/13

DJ Table of China December Oilseed, Vegoil, Grain Imports
Table of Imports by Grain, Oil Type and Origin
(All figures in metric tons)
Dec Change Jan-Dec Change
in Tons on Year in Tons on Year
Wheat
Total 5,527 -97.46% 3,688,616 +195.37%
Kazakhstan 2,760 +4.55% 204,845 +4333.87%
Australia 1,671 -98.2% 2,425,214 +280.68%
USA 1,096 -98.32% 645,107 +48.34%
France – - 11,950 -
Canada – -100% 401,500 +133.09%
Barley
Total 55,294 -55.28% 2,527,655 +42.36%
Australia 55,294 +111.57% 2,078,353 +65.62%
Argentina – -100% 112,500 -35.97%
Canada – -100% 313,786 +202.75%
France – -100% 23,017 -90.38%
Corn
Total 265,817 -53.35% 5,207,379 +197.08%
U.S.A 239,181 -54.86% 5,113,304 +203.36%
Laos 15,636 -40.79% 52,700 +49.85%
Myanmar 9,262 -31.08% 18,488 -34.91%
Japan – - 1 -25.99%
India 0 – 18 -99.4%
Thailand – - 17,945 +9969344.44%
Rice
Total 215,319 +257.03% 2,344,622 +305.38%
Pakistan 109,841 +1731.6% 579,583 +6586.47%
Vietnam 49,970 +397.22% 1,545,079 +560.93%
Thailand 39,524 -2.85% 175,353 -46.15%
Laos 10,647 +211.54% 22,445 +200.8%
Myanmar 4,001 +2373.69% 6,201 +358.77%
Cambodia 1,313 – 3,584 +1194580%
India – - 125 +357042.86%
Japan – - 36 +296983.33%
Soybean
Total 5,890,357 +9.87% 58,383,853 +11.22%
USA 4,791,739 +35.49% 25,970,784 +16.62%
Canada 487,306 +477.25% 630,237 +62.44%
Argentina 437,474 -49.22% 5,896,226 -24.23%
Brazil 122,979 -85.27% 23,890,986 +15.85%
Uruguay 41,884 -3.59% 1,903,913 +33.04%
Russia 8,870 +1664.37% 91,603 +2390.66%
China 105 – 105 -
Rapeseed
Total 217,958 +8.74% 2,929,592 +132.09%
Canada 212,200 +7% 2,921,761 +133.69%
Mongolia 5,758 +172.57% 7,831 -34.69%
Rapeseed Oil
Total 85,555 +20.47% 1,175,818 +113.43%
Canada 77,548 +37.6% 987,395 +87.84%
USA 5,065 -65.21% 22,467 +53.38%
Australia 2,926 +2756.7% 19,754 +2066.21%
Japan 17 – 33 -38.26%
Russia – - 43 -
UAE – - 93,847 +885.1%
Germany – - 10,260 +31566.9%
Netherlands – - 42,018 -
Rapeseed Meal
Total 590 -98.96% 500,278 -63.8%
Ethiopia 590 -72.06% 8,763 -39.37%
Pakistan – - 91,370 +91.45%
India – -100% 23,064 -96.44%
Canada – -100% 357,661 -46.73%
Australia – - 19,420 -
Soyoil
Total 202,575 +123.35% 1,826,114 +59.74%
U.S.A 100,983 – 207,059 -9.22%
Argentina 95,858 +82.59% 702,792 +70.1%
Brazil 5,500 -85.42% 913,061 +82.38%
India – -100% 250 -39.38%
South Korea – -100% 72 -86.96%
Vietnam – - 809 -
China – - 18 -63.07%
Soymeal
Total 800 -98.47% 45,422 -79.75%
India – -100% 34,454 -83.87%
Pakistan – - 801 -
Palm Oil
Total 954,087 +44.86% 6,341,162 +7.26%
Malaysia 488,756 +49.17% 3,430,781 -9.23%
Indonesia 454,492 +37.61% 2,872,157 +35.55%
India 10,230 – 31,670 +533.89%
Sri Lanka – - 720 -
Thailand – - 36 -60%
(Source: General Administration of Customs)

DJ Table of China December Oilseed, Vegoil, Grain Exports
Table of Exports by Grain, Oil Type and Destination
(All figures in metric tons)
Dec Change Jan-Dec Change
in Tons on Year in Tons on Year
Barley
Total 3 -99.47% 4,581 -27.05%
Hong Kong 3 – 6 +1153.78%
North Korea – - 600 +74900%
Malaysia – - 9 -
Mongolia – - 657 -
South Korea – -100% 3,273 -42.97%
Corn
Total 5,010 +147.67% 257,263 +89.17%
North Korea 4,980 +154.99% 257,091 +89.38%
Pakistan 30 -40% 47 -64.21%
Japan – - 23 -33.45%
Sierra Leone – - 2 -
Eritrea – - 100 -
Rice
Total 20,614 -64.35% 279,087 -45.86%
North Korea 5,989 -51.86% 49,010 -46.87%
Japan 3,694 +5.9% 49,808 +81.39%
Vietnam 3,611 +20.67% 9,423 -11.13%
Burundi 2,300 – 3,100 -
Hong Kong 1,512 -28.27% 25,253 -15.49%
Mongolia 1,476 +3.43% 10,432 -19.59%
Russia 862 +30.61% 3,991 -47.47%
Angola 538 +229.82% 644 +50.17%
Kirghizstan 370 -53.48% 2,210 -67.48%
Pakistan 210 -86.27% 7,424 +38.04%
Iraq 32 – 60 -
Nepal Nepal 10 +11.11% 60 -55.23%
East Timor 10 – 14 -99.73%
Togo 1 – 1 -
Congo(b) 1 – 1 -
Lebanon – - 220 -86.02%
Macau – -100% 602 -42.83%
Kazakhstan – -100% 590 -76%
Malaysia – - 6 +20589.66%
Tajikistan – -100% 985 -69.95%
Indonesia – -100% 2,618 -45.95%
Bangladesh – -100% 1,773 -35.04%
Chad – - 3,000 -
Comoros – - 2 -
Myanmar – -100% 3 -99.72%
Ethiopia – - 20 -99.08%
Mali – - 3,000 -
Mauritius – - 2 -
Niger – - 1,279 -
Nigeria – - 4 +2237.14%
Sierra Leone – - 6 +6.33%
Philippines – -100% 1,771 +9.04%
Zimbabwe – -100% 49 -99%
Lesotho – - 5 -
South Korea – -100% 101,507 -57.51%
Ukraine – - 192 +92%
Bahamas – - 22 -
Soybean
Total 33,003 +19.82% 320,101 +53.7%
South Korea 17,248 -25.34% 132,521 +36.9%
Japan 2,855 +30.85% 42,348 -1.34%
Hong Kong 340 -10.14% 2,520 -37.39%
Malaysia 294 +150.11% 1,721 +7.37%
North Korea 29 -47.09% 19,236 -4.64%
Philippines 23 – 263 -
Macau 9 +15.48% 94 +23.26%
Iraq 5 – 19 -
Singapore 4 -20% 88 +22.1%
Brunei 3 – 3 -93.42%
Thailand 2 -97.09% 227 -33.15%
Mongolia – - 19 -56.21%
Indonesia – - 67 -
Qatar – - 17 -37.04%
Kuwait – - 2 -80.28%
Bangladesh – - 3 -
Israel – - 27 -
Vietnam – - 148 -97.34%
Rapeseed
Total 4 – 335 +80.54%
Indonesia 4 – 8 -
Japan – - 9 -86.93%
Mongolia – - 277 -
Pakistan – - 17 -19.12%
South Korea – - 24 +36.66%
Rapeseed Oil
Total 553 +81.16% 6,631 +102.47%
Hong Kong 490 +82.62% 5,876 +127.39%
Macau 53 +47.33% 726 +1553.36%
North Korea 10 – 10 -
Laos – - 2 -
Japan – - 14 -97.46%
Sri Lanka – - 2 -
Rapeseed Meal
Total 14,002 +481.01% 73,599 +638.92%
Vietnam 9,446 +307.16% 26,936 +344.26%
Japan 4,556 +4962.61% 17,112 +344.73%
Thailand – - 29,504 -
South Korea – - 48 -
Soyoil
Total 8,844 +160.09% 65,385 +27.92%
North Korea 6,115 +125.69% 46,111 +28.93%
Japan 2,256 – 9,156 +77.55%
Hong Kong 460 +142.56% 4,018 +27.14%
Macau 13 -31.43% 331 +129.53%
Bangladesh – - 1 -
Singapore – - 5,315 +26.16%
South Korea – - 79 -
East Timor – - 7 +9.4%
Angola – - 61 +146.21%
Comoros – - 1 -
Malawi – - 7 -
Sudan – - 1 -
Zimbabwe – -100% 7 +281.14%
Soymeal
Total 111,972 +421.8% 1,232,672 +203.38%
Japan 49,594 +400.09% 669,119 +166.87%
Vietnam 27,249 – 264,477 +903.12%
South Korea 15,618 +570.66% 53,563 +260.36%
Malaysia 4,088 +25447% 26,701 +290.68%
UK 3,325 +79.87% 30,390 +28.63%
Netherlands 3,177 +123.92% 29,914 +44.76%
USA 2,753 +1431.75% 47,299 +177.01%
North Korea 2,431 -8.71% 45,807 +104.34%
Denmark 1,304 -19.4% 12,625 +43.81%
Switzerland 988 +101.91% 4,973 +18.21%
Norway 857 +88.26% 5,791 +57.22%
Canada 310 +63.08% 1,852 +145.8%
Germany 225 – 812 +170.55%
Hong Kong 30 -50% 1,002 -4.84%
Sudan 26 – 64 -
Turkey – - 42 -
Indonesia – - 6,261 +10335.6%
Israel – -100% 777 -49.6%
Zambia – - 600 +71.43%
Belgium – - 382 -3.44%
Bangladesh – - 15,197 -
Cyprus – - 260 -44.18%
Mongolia – - 10 -
Italy – - 269 -
Pakistan – - 12,594 -
Spain – - 99 -
Finland – - 283 +1321.79%
Philippines – -100% 35 +16.67%
Singapore – - 101 -
Russia – - 3 -
Ecuador – - 940 +0.71%
Mexico – - 141 -21.53%
Venezuela – - 104 -
India – - 16 -
Thailand – - 5 +316.67%
Australia – -100% 140 -85.38%
Tonga – - 3 -
Micronesia – - 21 -
Palm Oil
Total 108 -34.81% 871 -32.16%
Kirghizstan 99 -39.95% 593 -18.98%
Japan 9 – 78 +2457.89%
North Korea – - 68 -87.65%
Uzbekistan – - 118 -
Croatia – - 15 -
(Source: General Administration of Customs)

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on follow through buying on weather concerns. Wheat stayed firm as cold air moved into some production areas of the Great Plains while precipitation for the most part stays away. It is turning colder in the Great Plains, and could turn much colder this week, but only in northern and central areas. Some winterkill could happen in areas where there has been good crop development. Winterkill will not be a problem for southern areas, but precipitation remains a major concern as the region gets only light amounts, or, for the most part, nothing at all. Conditions are much better in SRW areas of the Midwest where there has been more precipitation, but cold weather is expected in these areas next week, too. Domestic and world demand can hold strong. Corn prices are still high in the US and are likely to go higher as a result of its reports, so domestic use should remain strong. Ideas are that importers will continue to buy mostly from the US due to price and availability. The US Great Plains is forecast to get dry weather this week. The cash markets in the US and around the world are firm. World prices keep moving higher, so US Wheat is now competitive or is well below the competition. Conditions for Winter Wheat crops in the US remain an issue as weather in the Great Plains remains very dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains will be dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas could see dry weather or light precipitation, mostly late this week. Temperatures should average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures will average below normal. Informa estimates US Winter Wheat planted area at 41.820 million acres and Spring Wheaet planted area at 12.484 million acres.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 796 March. Support is at 774, 765, and 761 March, with resistance at 801, 806, and 817 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 873 March. Support is at 829, 817, and 809 March, with resistance at 848, 851, and 860 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 893 March. Support is at 865, 861, and 851 March, and resistance is at 882, 896, and 904 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 571,418
: Positions
: 117,282 190,368 121,490 26,031 22,153 77,983 95,901 68,819 28,129 20,176 92,516
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: 6,731 -7,501 -26,511 -525 3,109 -2,063 -1,981 3,310 2,552 -5,197 1,402
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.5 33.3 21.3 4.6 3.9 13.6 16.8 12.0 4.9 3.5 16.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 411
: 80 103 17 9 22 60 56 54 81 68 96
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 182,873
: Positions
: 38,862 91,577 49,053 1,690 8,074 33,013 14,487 19,767 5,134 9,014 8,095
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -5,012 994 11,093 43 2,126 4,217 2,571 2,992 -4,674 -33 1,252
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.3 50.1 26.8 0.9 4.4 18.1 7.9 10.8 2.8 4.9 4.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 182
: 45 67 15 . 10 28 19 17 16 22 21
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 45,879
: Positions
: 20,713 28,973 3,224 0 670 5,323 1,037 1,010 1,432 1,565 1,639
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: 354 1 46 0 6 -416 522 504 -146 74 -122
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 45.1 63.2 7.0 0.0 1.5 11.6 2.3 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55
: 29 23 5 0 4 6 . 4 5 5 7
————————————————————————————————————–

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed lower Friday on some speculative selling. Weather has improved in Texas, with good precipitation seen in parts of Texas in the last week, but it still appears that many farmers between Houston and San Antonio will not get water for crops this Summer as reservoirs remain very low. Many Delta areas are got a lot of rain and snow last week too, and all of this precipitation will be beneficial for the crops this Summer. Charts show that trends are mixed for the short term, but price action has been poor this week. Domestic cash markets are called slow, but with a steady to firm tone. Higher prices were paid in Texas last week as there is very little Rice left in farmer hands in the state. Arkansas farmers are willing to sell, but most hope for better prices. The market is still finding little selling interest from producers, and cash prices continue to firm. World markets appear mixed, with higher prices in the west and soft prices in Asia. India and Thailand are both reporting reduced exports, and Vietnam could have reduced exports soon as major Asian buyers are not buying that much.
Overnight News: Dry into this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Informa estimates Rice planted area at 2.610 million acres for the coming year.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1511, 1499, and 1490 March, with resistance at 1526, 1534, and 1540 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 15,035
: Positions
: 7,023 6,695 1,669 0 73 1,495 3,167 0 1,272 2,461 546
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -97 -494 2 0 0 -134 158 -2 86 52 -12
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 46.7 44.5 11.1 0.0 0.5 9.9 21.1 0.0 8.5 16.4 3.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77
: 22 16 6 0 . 6 12 0 19 5 9
————————————————————————————————————–

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on ideas of tight supplies and on reports of very strong basis level in the Midwest. Farmers are not really selling anything as it is very cold in northern areas and as USDA indicated a very tight situation for feed grains in its quarterly stocks report issued a couple of weeks ago. Funds and some end users have been the best buyers for over a week and seem to be getting some coverage due to the supply issues. Demand on the export side remains very weak, but US prices are becoming more and more competitive and export demand could increase in the near future. Basis levels have been very strong as farmers are not offering much. Wire reports have indicated that interior US basis levels are at record highs for this time of year. Most areas were firm again yesterday. The weather is improved in of South America. Current weather forecasts feature showers and rains in northern sections of Brazil. Southern Brazil should get some rains late in the week, and our reports indicate that crops look good there. Dry weather is forecast in Argentina this week, but some showers are possible this weekend.
Overnight News: Informa estimates US Corn planted area at 99.303 million acres for the coming season.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 722, 715, and 707 March, and resistance is at 735, 747, and 754 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 352, 349, and 340 March, and resistance is at 360, 363, and 368 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,658,310
: Positions
: 330,249 680,852 272,597 41,084 52,691 242,992 101,143 210,931 89,546 42,099 275,939
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -14,089 26,913 13,714 -1,230 2,532 24,720 -2,016 8,255 2,761 3,312 19,379
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.9 41.1 16.4 2.5 3.2 14.7 6.1 12.7 5.4 2.5 16.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 769
: 246 339 18 10 24 88 54 89 91 129 155
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 11,713
: Positions
: 5,407 6,651 1,518 0 0 676 544 64 474 1,388 1,429
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -147 -476 20 0 0 -13 94 64 94 79 -90
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 46.2 56.8 13.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 4.6 0.5 4.0 11.9 12.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 45
: 13 10 4 0 0 6 5 . 7 7 9
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 9,033
: Positions
: 5,602 6,673 190 0 681 650 234 101 656 482 564
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -164 -107 -156 0 114 75 4 -11 -25 -50 -282
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 62.0 73.9 2.1 0.0 7.5 7.2 2.6 1.1 7.3 5.3 6.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 39
: 18 21 . 0 . . . . 4 4 5
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHICAGO ETHANOL SWAP – NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 42,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025651 Open Interest is 22,658
: Positions
: 19,157 18,552 77 1,362 341 1,061 73 290 464 703 1,100
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: 2,392 1,662 -7 536 -12 60 73 0 -61 57 140
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 84.5 81.9 0.3 6.0 1.5 4.7 0.3 1.3 2.0 3.1 4.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54
: 30 31 . . . 4 . . . 6 6
————————————————————————————————————–

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed a little lower before the weekend. Bears continue to sell rallies in Chicago as they anticipate big offers very soon from South America that will hurt US export demand. Reports of very good growing conditions in southern Brazil continue. It is dry in Argentina, and this is beneficial for now, but rains will need to start again soon. Some areas in central Argentina are now said to be too dry, the exact opposite of the problem reported a month ago. Forecasts for the week call for showers and rains in northern sections of Brazil, and crop development should remain mostly very good. However, the northeast would like more rain. Southern Brazil should get some precipitation at the end of this week, but will be mostly dry. Drier weather is expected in most of Argentina through this week, but some showers are possible in northern areas at the end of the week. The overall Soybeans demand continues and there is still the threat that the US will sell all it has before too much longer, so the down side for prices could be limited. The down side for prices could also be limited due to the strong domestic demand as seen in the NOPA crush data last Monday and the Chinese import data released yesterday. Basis levels remain strong, although Soybean Meal basis was reported weak in domestic markets last week and Soybeans also showed a little basis weakness as well.
Overnight News: Informa estimated Soybeans planted área at 78.777 million acres for the coming year. China bought 120,000 tons of optional origin Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1464 March. Support is at 1407, 1398, and 1393 March, and resistance is at 1443, 1453, and 1455 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 436.00 March. Support is at 411.00, 406.00, and 393.00 March, and resistance is at 424.00, 436.00, and 440.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5050, 5020, and 4985 March, with resistance at 5175, 5185, and 5200 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 761,604
: Positions
: 153,517 282,617 76,384 35,126 38,991 118,882 39,446 103,677 35,009 24,712 170,720
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -301 -14,801 -15,680 5,365 -1,523 -42 -6,225 9,535 -136 2,369 6,410
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.2 37.1 10.0 4.6 5.1 15.6 5.2 13.6 4.6 3.2 22.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 476
: 100 123 13 10 23 82 49 84 91 88 140
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 360,034
: Positions
: 86,658 150,314 88,068 0 7,870 41,410 73,905 33,309 24,401 15,664 43,544
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -2,499 10,105 5,036 0 899 -276 -4,797 6,271 -1 944 2,913
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.1 41.7 24.5 0.0 2.2 11.5 20.5 9.3 6.8 4.4 12.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 257
: 52 57 17 0 11 28 43 29 34 48 59
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 289,903
: Positions
: 64,675 163,641 55,141 1,992 9,247 53,417 26,843 22,987 12,760 8,265 29,716
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: -6,617 8,780 22,763 -1,004 -1,249 -912 8,703 -1,385 -754 -699 945
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 22.3 56.4 19.0 0.7 3.2 18.4 9.3 7.9 4.4 2.9 10.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 216
: 58 61 18 . 16 41 20 21 23 32 34
————————————————————————————————————–

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in sympathy with price action in Chicago on Friday and narrowly mixed yesterday. Speculators were on both sides of the market and bear spreads were the main feature. Elevators were sellers in light volume. Commercials were reported to be buyers, with both export and domestic demand noted. Chart patterns are mixed, but with an upward bias. Palm Oil was higher on weather concerns. Traders are watching the weather developments in South America, where Argentina remains too dry. Malaysia is looking at big rains in some production areas that could disrupt supplies as well. Exports reported from private sources were bad, although bad data had been expected. Chinese officials will be in Malaysia at the end of the month to clarify import quality restrictions for Palm Oil, and then demand might get better. News of big supplies keeps sellers around. However, Palm Oil production could continue to trend lower for seasonal reasons and start to offer some support to prices soon.
Overnight News: India has imposed a 2.5% import tax on edible oils. SGs estimated exports so far this month at 813,778 tons, from 1.015 million tons last month. ITS estimated exports so far this month at 830,830 tons, from 1.004 million tons last month..
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 588.00, 586.00, and 578.00 March, with resistance at 602.00, 603.00, and 610.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 23555, 2330, and 2300 April, with resistance at 2445, 2460, and 2470 April.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush
Winnipeg–Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended January
16, 2013, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Week ended Cumulative Cumulative
2012/13 2011/12 2012/13 2011/12
Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Jan 16 130,824 3,318,013 3,012,141 28,333 711,172 629,884
Jan 09 133,064 3,187,189 2,887,123 27,501 682,839 603,072
Jan 02 138,858 3,045,125 2,747,217 24,849 655,338 574,451
Dec 26 150,574 2,915,267 2,606,045 28,785 630,489 550,676
Dec 19 149,661 2,764,693 2,467,195 30,257 601,704 521,838
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 78.7% 89.0% 91.6%
Soybeans 43.1% 48.2% 62.7%
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or
204-414-9084)

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jan 18
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended January 13, 2013. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
VISIBLE STOCKS
This week 3011.2 909.5 232.1 355.4 77.1 907.4 174.0 188.6 5894.2
Week ago 3044.5 902.7 218.2 338.7 87.2 879.2 168.4 186.9 5861.6
Year ago 3471.7 874.8 193.7 389.2 51.9 1444.4 158.0 162.0 6769.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This week 366.6 100.9 27.5 92.2 6.5 262.5 40.1 6.2 905.1
Week ago 227.3 66.0 27.1 51.9 6.2 190.7 20.6 7.4 600.1
To date 8271.3 2093.9 905.8 1413.6 182.8 7196.2 998.0 373.0 21524.9
Year ago 8115.2 1767.3 1088.1 1477.4 119.9 7641.8 1002.3 210.4 21502.3
EXPORTS
This week 366.3 109.8 29.9 42.2 21.9 119.5 35.0 2.7 728.9
Week ago 192.6 40.7 9.3 4.7 0.2 159.5 65.2 0.4 473.9
To date 6085.6 2097.2 608.8 749.9 147.6 3768.6 875.9 22.2 14405.0
Year ago 6171.5 1630.2 718.2 580.7 113.2 4352.2 1019.3 21.6 14681.3
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This week 68.5 2.4 7.8 44.4 0.4 126.1 0.2 1.8 252.0
Week ago 81.7 0.8 4.6 34.9 1.3 162.3 2.7 7.6 296.3
To date 2135.2 171.7 259.5 645.2 24.2 3342.5 15.5 203.2 6814.1
Year ago 2242.8 297.9 272.8 809.5 13.7 2929.3 29.2 190.9 6795.1
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or 204-414-9084)

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were lower and Milk and Cheese made new lows for the move. OnlyButter moved higher and it might be in the process of completing a bottom on the charts. Traders cite the seasonal increase in milk production coming soon, and also note that the mild Winter so far has kept Northeast and Midwest production strong. However, both parts of the country will be very cold this week. The CME auction showed that strong demand for Cheese and Butter had returned, and this helped support futures in all dairy markets. The markets have been heading lower and trends are now down in Cheese and Milk. However, Milk and Cheese are getting oversold and Butter is trying to form a bottom. Whey futures are back into the trading range on the weakness in the other dairy markets, but price action has been positive overall. US and EU prices continue to show premiums to other origins. Demand still seems to be good, especially for Cheese. The CME auction also showed very good demand for Cheese and some demand for butter and Milk.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1740, 1725, and 1695 February, and resistance is at 1775, 1785, and 1795 February. Trends in Cheese are mixed to down with objectives of 165.50 February. Support is at 172.00, 170.00, and 167.00 February, with resistance at 175.00, 176.50, and 177.00 February. Trends in Butter are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 154.00, and 152.50 February, and resistance is at 157.50, 158.00, and 160.00 February. Trends in Whey are mixed. Support is at 5800, 5700, and 5600 February, with resistance at 6000, 6100, and 6250 February.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
MILK, Class III – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #052641 Open Interest is 33,418
: Positions
: 17,896 12,286 137 2,319 152 927 0 18 1,868 2,811 7,634
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: 853 -62 0 58 1 -35 0 9 68 166 618
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 53.6 36.8 0.4 6.9 0.5 2.8 0.0 0.1 5.6 8.4 22.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72
: 32 25 . . . 4 0 . 16 12 24
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 15, 2013
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHEESE (CASH-SETTLED) – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #063642 Open Interest is 5,327
: Positions
: 3,824 1,669 0 246 29 34 28 1 82 2,167 968
: Changes from: January 8, 2013
: 347 74 0 0 0 -0 -0 0 -104 173 11
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 71.8 31.3 0.0 4.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.5 40.7 18.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30
: 14 8 0 . . . . . 4 7 9
————————————————————————————————————–

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Friday, January 18, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.5600 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.5300 : -.0050
——————————————————————
SALES: 2 CARS GRADE A @ $1.5300
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.5250
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.5350
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1136C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Friday, January 18, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.6375 : -.0125
40# BLOCKS : $1.6875 : -.0125
——————————————————————
SALES: 8 CARS BARRELS:
1 @ $1.6475, 2 @ $1.6450, 1 @ $1.6425, 3 @ $1.6400,
1 @ $1.6375
1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.6875
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.6350
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1133C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Friday, January 18, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.5050 : .0050
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 5 CARS GRADE AA @ $1.5050
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1138C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week, but light snow is possible in the north late in the week. Temperatures should average below normal.

FOB Gulf of Mexico of Mexico Basis Levels:
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 50 March 120 March 65 March 100 March 50 March 80 March
February 55 March 124 March 63 March 82 March
March 56 March 67 March 72 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.