Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Mar. Bonds are curretly 3 higher at 145’09 and the 10 Yr. Notes 2 higher at 131’29.5. Nothing much to report on the fundamentals this morning as the market awaits tomorrow’s Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Capacity Utilization reports. If you remain long Bonds from the 144’20 area either take profits or raise your protective sell stop to the 144’30 level from the 144’08 level. As mentioned in an earlier Report (Jan. 4th) I feel that the long term trend has turned down and I will be looking to sell sharp rallies above the 146’20 level if the market allows. One of the indicators I use for long term trades is the 200 moving day average for lead month contracts. This average is currently at 147’25 and was penetrated to the downside with the Dec. 31st close of 147’16.
Grains: Mar. Corn is currently fractionally lower at 688’4, Mar. Beans 1’0 higher at 1387’4 and Mar. Wheat 1’6 higher at 752’2. Users of Corn such as livestock producers should consider covering their short term needs on this current break in the market. As for speculation, I prefer to await on the sidelines until Friday’s crop report. Support for Mar. Corn is currently the 660’0-670’0 area.
Cattle: Feb. LC are currently 5 lower at 132.47 and Mar. FC unchanged at 155.00. I am currently on the sidelines awaiting confirmation of a possible top. As I have mentioned over the last couple of weeks, producers should be looking for hedging opportunities by either using futures or option strategies.
Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 3 cents lower at 30.45 and Feb. Gold 1.00 higher at 1663.00. We continue to remain long a small amount of Silver as part of an overall portfolio strategy. I remain on the sidelines in Gold. Current support in Gold is the 1630.00 area and resistance remains above the 1670.00 level. A close above the 1672.00 level will be considered constructive.
S&P’s: Mar. S&P’s are currently 3.00 higher at 1455.25. This market warrants close attention at current prices as the market approaches heavy resistance in the 1460.00-1475.00 area. The recent high for a long term contract was 1474.75 made the week of Sept. 14th 2012. The last time the market was at this level was January of 2008. To put things in perspective the market was trading in the 1574.00 area in March of 2000. The other side of the coin: The market made a low of 665.75 in September 2009. Basically the market is down 6.0% over the last 12 years and up 115.0% over the last 3.5 years.. For the near term I will be a seller on rallies with a stop above the 1577.00 level. Support is currently 1438.00 for the near term.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 42 lower at 1.3049, the Swiss 36 lower at 1.0798, the Yen 60 lower at 1.1414 and the Pound 52 lower at 1.6002. I remain negative for the long term on both the Euro and the Yen. That being said, my near term down side objectives have been met and we have covered all short biased positions. I will be looking to reinstate short Euro positions above the 1.3260 level and short Yen positions above the 1.1750 level.
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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.
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