Morning Softs 1/9/13

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower as traders get ready for the USDA January reports that will be released on Friday morning, Chicago time. A stronger US Dollar hurt demand ideas, but ideas are that the overall pace of export sales remains strong. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower next year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Trends are not well defined on the charts, but ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be dry today and tomorrow, then will see rain move from west to east the balance of the week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather except for some rain on Wednesday. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.097 million bales, from 0.094 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.60, 74.40, and 73.70 March, with resistance of 75.90, 76.40, and 76.95 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower again as favorable weather remains in the forecast for Florida. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. More rain would be beneficial, but current forecasts are on the dry side. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Winter is here, and with Winter comes the threat for a freeze to Oranges and other fruits grown in Florida, but there is no real cold weather in the forecast. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 108.00, 107.00, and 104.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower as London seemed to reverse from its short term rally. Charts still show that New York and Sao Paulo are in a trading range, with both possibly trying to complete a bottom. London futures fell back into a trading range with the price action yesterday. Brazil still has most of its production to sell and is getting some competing offers in the short term from Central America and Colombia. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil as moderate temperatures have been reported, but production areas could use more rain for the developing crop. Some rain is forecast for Coffee areas starting today. Central America crops are getting harvested, and conditions are called good there. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected. We are already hearing significant loss estimates for the next crop due to Roya. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.585 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 133.86 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible in southern Mexico and northern Central America. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Conab said that Brazil could produce between 46.98 and 50.16 million bags of Coffee in 2013, from 50.83 million in 2012.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 143.00, and 141.00 March, and resistance is at 152.00, 155.00, and 157.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1860 March, and resistance is at 1935, 1945, and 1975 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 178.00 March, and resistance is at 188.00, 190.00, and 193.50 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what was called speculative long liquidation. Futures are in a trading range, but trends are turning down. News of any kind remains hard for the traders to find. There was no demand news to support values. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too, although there are more reports of slow harvest progress in Thailand. Conditions still look good for many production areas. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace is called slow right now. Brazil production continues strong.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1800 March, and resistance is at 1910, 1925, and 1945 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 494.00 March. Support is at 505.00, 502.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. Ghana producers are reported to be selling as well. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the Wold Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. The market needs some demand news or some other news to shake it out of the sideways to lower trade. This news could come son as the main West Africa harvest should be about over and there is a lot of talk that production next year will be less.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply lower today at 3.798 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2205, 2195, and 2155 March, with resistance at 2275, 2290, and 2325 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1450, 1455, and 1490 March.

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