Morning Grains 1/9/13

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 10, 2013 704 Jan 08, 2013

DJ SURVEY: Forecasts For US Dec 1 Grain Stocks Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for U.S. grain and soybean stocks as of Dec. 1, 2012, as compiled by Dow Jones. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at 12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
2012 Sept.1 2011 Dec.1
USDA USDA
Average Range Stocks Stocks
Corn (16) 8.210 8.050-8.450 0.988 9.647
Soybeans (16) 1.984 1.915-2.056 0.169 2.370
Wheat (15) 1.674 1.553-1.721 2.104 1.663
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 8.450 1.993 1.705
ADM Investor Services 8.172 1.932 1.716
AgriSource 8.125 1.980 1.620
Agrivisor 8.395 1.955 1.655
Allendale 8.050 1.942 1.682
Doane Advisory Srv 8.259 1.959 1.685
Futures International 8.290 1.987 1.704
Jefferies Bache 8.353 2.002 1.643
Kropf/Love Consulting 8.207 1.994 1.667
Linn Group 8.105 2.017 1.553
Newedge USA 8.126 2.009 1.696
Prime Ag 8.100 2.000 1.700
Rice Dairy 8.228 1.915 1.671
RJ O’Brien 8.248 1.996 1.721
U.S. Commodities 8.120 2.005 n/a
Water Street Solutions 8.130 2.056 1.696

DJ SURVEY: Annual US Corn, Soybean Production And Yield
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2012-13 U.S. soybean and corn production, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its Annual Production report at 12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Dec 2011
Average Range USDA Output
Corn (22) 10.626 10.100-10.801 10.725 12.358
Soybeans (22) 2.999 2.922-3.104 2.971 3.094
YIELD:
Corn (22) 122.4 121.0-123.4 122.3 147.2
Soybeans (22) 39.6 38.6-41.0 39.3 41.9
Corn Soybeans
Crop Yield Crop Yield
ABN Amro 10.675 122.0 3.028 40.0
ADM Investor Services 10.578 123.0 2.971 39.3
AgriSource 10.650 122.1 2.990 39.5
Agrivisor 10.684 122.8 2.944 38.9
Allendale 10.618 123.2 2.978 39.4
Alpari 10.500 122.0 3.100 39.5
Citigroup 10.681 121.8 2.970 39.4
Doane Advisory Srvcs 10.755 122.6 2.990 39.5
Farm Futures 10.617 121.3 2.969 39.6
Futures International 10.685 122.1 2.963 39.3
Global Comm Analytics 10.701 123.0 2.969 39.8
*Informa 10.801 123.3 3.036 40.1
Jefferies Bache 10.749 123.0 3.025 40.0
Kropf and Love 10.675 122.0 2.990 39.5
Linn Group 10.492 122.0 2.983 39.3
Newedge USA 10.704 122.3 3.016 39.9
Prime Ag Consultants 10.614 122.0 3.104 41.0
R.J. O’Brien 10.760 123.4 2.986 39.4
Rice Dairy 10.665 122.4 2.951 39.0
Risk Management Comm 10.100 121.0 2.922 38.6
US Commodities 10.736 122.7 3.100 39.7
Water Street Solutions 10.325 122.1 2.996 39.6
*From traders

DJ SURVEY: January US Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2012-13 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at 12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Dec
2012-13 2011-12
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (21) 0.667 0.489-0.764 0.647 0.988
Soybeans (21) 0.135 0.107-0.178 0.130 0.169
Wheat (19) 0.743 0.637-0.792 0.754 0.743
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 0.697 0.130 0.779
ADM Investor Services 0.600 0.150 0.750
AgriSource 0.660 0.135 0.735
Agrivisor 0.656 0.130 0.704
Allendale 0.760 0.141 0.754
Alpari 0.550 0.130 0.770
Citigroup 0.649 0.130 0.750
Doane Advisory Srvcs 0.676 0.150 0.737
Futures International 0.648 0.133 0.732
Global Comm Analytics 0.764 0.107 0.706
Jefferies Bache 0.720 0.150 0.759
Kropf and Love 0.647 0.140 0.754
Linn Group 0.755 0.114 0.637
Midco 0.700 0.130 0.750
Newedge USA 0.647 0.140 0.769
Prime Ag Consultants 0.635 0.178 0.754
Rice Dairy 0.616 0.120 0.752
Risk Management Commodities 0.750 0.131 n/a
RJ O’Brien 0.715 0.126 0.792
US Commodities 0.682 0.150 n/a
Water Street Solutions 0.489 0.125 0.729

DJ SURVEY: USDA 2013-14 US Winter Wheat Seedings Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of acres for 2013-14 U.S. winter wheat seedings, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at 12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday, Jan. 11. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Average Range 2012 Seedings
All Winter Wheat (15) 42.6 41.7-44.7 41.3
Hard Red Winter (14) 30.3 29.9-31.0 29.9
Soft Red Winter (14) 8.9 8.2-10.0 8.1
White Winter (14) 3.5 3.3-3.9 3.3
All Hard Soft
Winter Red Red White
ABN Amro 43.1 30.0 9.7 3.4
ADM Investor Services 42.3 30.0 8.9 3.4
Agrivisor 44.7 31.0 10.0 3.7
Allendale 43.4 30.3 9.6 3.5
Doane Advisory Service 43.1 30.2 8.98 3.9
Farm Futures 42.1 n/a n/a n/a
Futures International 41.7 29.9 8.4 3.4
Global Commod Analytics 42.8 30.5 9.0 3.3
Jefferies Bache 42.3 30.7 8.2 3.5
Kropf & Love Consulting 42.3 30.4 8.6 3.3
Linn Group 42.8 30.0 9.4 3.4
Newedge USA LLC 42.0 29.9 8.8 3.3
Rice Dairy 42.6 30.4 8.8 3.4
R.J. O’Brien 42.0 30.2 8.3 3.5
Water Street Solutions 42.3 30.8 8.2 3.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed mixed along with the other grains and oilseeds yesterday. The lack of any new demand news hurt an early rally attempt, as did forecasts for some potentially significant rains for the central and southern Great Plains later this week. Most of the rain should fall in areas away from HRW production, but forecast still call for beneficial precipitation in just about all of the Great Plains. Ideas are that importers will continue to buy mostly from the US due to price and availability. The US Great Plains is forecast to get good rains this week in central and southern areas. However, it seems now that the best amounts and coverage of the precipitation will be east of Winter Wheat areas. Warmer temperatures this week will melt snow cover before the return of cold air next week. The cash markets in the US and around the world are firm. World prices keep moving higher, so US Wheat is now competitive or is well below the competition. Conditions for Winter Wheat crops in the US remain an issue as weather in the Great Plains remains very dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas could see dry weather or light precipitation, mostly over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above normal early in the week, but will trend colder near the end of the week. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures will average above normal early in the week and below normal late in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 730, 697, and 641 March. Support is at 744, 740, and 737 March, with resistance at 761, 768, and 780 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 791, 766, and 710 March. Support is at 797, 783, and 770 March, with resistance at 818, 834, and 841 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 819 March. Support is at 841, 835, and 830 March, and resistance is at 853, 861, and 871 March.

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed a little lower again yesterday in what appeared to be a very light volume corrective trade. Traders are also getting out of positions before the USDA reports that will be released at 11:00 AM Chicago time on Friday. Nothing has really changed on the charts or in the news for Rice at this time. Charts show that trends are mixed for the short term. Ideas are that the market is getting oversold after the big down moves of the last few sessions. Domestic cash markets are called slow, but with a steady to firm tone. The export sales report once again showed good demand, but less than what has been seen in recent weeks. The export pace has been strong for several weeks now, and more strong business is expected in the short term. The market is still finding little selling interest from producers.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Delta today, then rain from west to east tomorrow and Thursday. Dry again by Friday. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1518, 1514, and 1510 March, with resistance at 1534, 1540, and 1545 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were mostly a little higher as traders start to get ready for the USDA reports that will be released on Friday morning. Most expect USDA to trim production estimates due to abandonment of the crops in some areas. Demand ideas have fueled debate as some expect USDA to show robust demand potential while others note that exports so far have been poor. Demand on the export side remains very weak, but US prices are becoming more and more competitive and export demand could increase in the near future. Domestic demand reports have been soft for feed due to reduced animal populations, but domestic demand for ethanol production has held strong and is on pace to meet USDA targets and other industrial demand should be good. Basis levels have been very strong as farmers are not offering much. Wire reports indicated that interior US basis levels are at record highs for this time of year. Most areas were firm yesterday. The weather is improved in of South America. Current weather forecasts feature showers and rains in northern sections of Brazil. Southern Brazil should get some rains. Drier is forecast in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 679 and 669 March. Support is at 678, 665, and 657 March, and resistance is at 694, 701, and 707 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 327 and 279 March. Support is at 329, 327, and 321 March, and resistance is at 340, 342, and 351 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed mixed as traders get ready for the USDA reports that will be released on Friday morning. Most seem to anticipate that the reports will be more bullish than bearish as USDA should show strong demand even if production is increased a little bit. Reports of very good growing conditions in southern Brazil continue. It is dry in Argentina, and this is beneficial. Forecasts for the week call for showers and rains in northern sections of Brazil, and crop development should remain mostly very good. However, the northeast would like more rain. Southern Brazil should get some very beneficial precipitation this week. Drier weather is expected to return in most of Argentina this week. The overall Soybeans demand continues and there is still the threat that the US will sell all it has before too much longer, so the down side for prices could be limited. Basis levels remain strong, but showed some weakness late last week and yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1356 and 1311 March. Support is at 1373, 1356, and 1351 March, and resistance is at 1398, 1413, and 1426 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 407.00, 406.00, and 393.00 March, and resistance is at 413.00, 419.00, and 423.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4950, 4925, and 4890 March, with resistance at 5075, 5135, and 5175 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on ideas of better demand and on talk of little offer in cash markets. A weaker Canadian Dollar was positive. Commercials were reported to be the best buyers. Chart patterns are mixed or down. Ideas are that commercials can’t buy Canola in the country even with premiums over posted bids offered, but demand overall seems slow right now. Farmers are not rally offering much. Ideas are that demand must be rationed this year and that prices will hold generally strong. Ideas are that prices for Canola should hold better tan those in the Soy Complex. Palm Oil was lower again on bad demand. Traders are waiting for private demand data to be released later this week and expect it to be bearish. Some selling came from ideas of less demand from China due to quality changes that started this month. Talk of big supplies keeps sellers around. Traders expect demand to hold strong as Palm Oil has favorable pricing for biodiesel producers, but still expect stocks to increase on strong production. However, Palm Oil production could continue to trend lower soon for seasonal reasons and big supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 586.00, 578.00, and 571.00 March, with resistance at 594.00, 600.00, and 603.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2360 March. Support is at 2375, 2340, and 2300 March, with resistance at 2435, 2470, and 2525 March.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were lower on follow through selling. Chart patterns show that trends are down. Futures have rejected moves lower in the last couple of weeks, but the bears finally got the job done. Whey futures are still trying to breakout to the up side of the recent trading range, but yesterday were pushed back into the trading range on the weakness in the other dairy markets. US and EU prices continue to show premiums to other origins. Demand still seems to be good, especially for Cheese. The CME auction also showed good demand for Cheese and ongoing demand for Butter
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are down with objectives of 1745 February. Support is at 1755, 1740, and 1725 February, and resistance is at 1810, 1820, and 1835 February. Trends in Cheese are down with objectives of 172.00 and 165.50 February. Support is at 175.00, 173.00, and 170.00 February, with resistance at 176.50, 177.00, and 178.00 February. Trends in Butter are mixed. Support is at 152.50, 151.50, and 150.00 February, and resistance is at 154.00, 155.00, and 156.00 February. Trends in Whey are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5850, and 5800 February, with resistance at 6000, 6100, and 6250 February.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Tuesday, January 8, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.5600 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.5575 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.5575
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1145C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Tuesday, January 8, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.6900 : N.C.
40# BLOCKS : $1.7200 : -.0400
——————————————————————
SALES: 5 CARS BARRELS:
2 @ $1.6550, 1 @ $1.6700, 1 @ $1.6750, 1 @ $1.6800
1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.7100
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.6900
2 CARS 40# BLOCKS @ $1.7200
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.7100
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1138C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Tuesday, January 8, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.4500 : -.0350
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.4500
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE

LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.4800
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1144C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for rain the rest of this week and over the weekend. Temperatures should average above to much above normal through Saturday, then near normal by Monday.

FOB Gulf of Mexico of Mexico Basis Levels:
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 61 March 128 March 79 March 108 March 58 March 120 March
February 65 March 82 March 103 March
March 59 March 80 March 65 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.