Morning Softs 12/31/12

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower Friday as traders waited for some definitive news about the Fiscal Cliff from Washington. The results would most likely affect Cotton demand for clothes and other uses. There was some selling tied to the end of the year positioning as well. Some are also wondering if planted area might be lower next year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. Weekend weather featured mostly dry conditions, but some light snow in northern and eastern sections of the Great Plains. Trends are turning up on the charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see precipitation move from west to east this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal. Texas will get some rain today, then dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.085 million bales, from 0.082 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.40, 73.95, and 73.25 March, with resistance of 76.00, 76.30, and 76.40 March.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Dec 28
Data quoted in bales for week ending Dec 27. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 234,223 4,543,106 Southwest 73,110 4,888,185
NC 39,631 1,081,238 Okla 1,842 102,202
SC 27,182 359,873 Texas 69,214 4,730,305
Ga 128,836 2,204,555 Kansas 2,054 55,678
Ala 23,580 631,053
Fla 3,943 107,394 Far West 41,701 827,028
Va 11,051 158,993 NM 1,969 34,960
Ariz 21,191 364,860
Delta 6,926 4,095,753 Calif 18,541 427,208
Miss 3,823 905,365
Tenn* 0 731,279 Pima 23,356 548,318
Mo 2,322 739,389 Other 0 0
Ark 781 1,244,553 Total US 379,316 14,902,390
La 0 475,167 pct tenderable 65.5 58.4

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 228,326
: Positions
: 21,429 121,164 62,200 8,478 10,628 45,633 19,805 20,160 18,703 4,312 32,805
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -51 4,159 -205 -489 933 2,413 -3,153 1,643 -2,857 -293 443
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 9.4 53.1 27.2 3.7 4.7 20.0 8.7 8.8 8.2 1.9 14.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 287
: 35 52 20 8 18 67 37 35 61 32 51
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower as favorable weather was forecast for Florida. It got cold over the weekend, but there was no threat of a freeze in citrus areas. Milder temperatures should return later this week after a couple of more chilly nights. More rain would be beneficial and is possible this week. Fruit is holding for now, but some rain would be beneficial. Winter is here, and with Winter comes the threat for a freeze to Oranges and other fruits grown in Florida. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 121.00 March, with resistance at 130.50, 134.50, and 137.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 33,656
: Positions
: 7,554 23,438 3,051 0 182 7,524 1,431 1,235 4,079 179 5,897
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -1,782 -1,905 -14 0 -62 43 -116 -473 -293 20 -2,402
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 22.4 69.6 9.1 0.0 0.5 22.4 4.3 3.7 12.1 0.5 17.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 88
: 17 15 5 0 . 25 6 . 19 11 18
————————————————————————————————————–

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little lower Friday in quiet trading. Everyone was waiting for word on the progress or lack of progress on the Fiscal Cliff talks. Charts show that London and New York are in a trading range, with both possibly trying to complete a bottom. Sao Paulo markets could also be forming a bottom. Little origin selling was noted. Ideas that Brazil still has most of its production to sell and will start getting a lot of competing offers in the short term from Central America and Colombia. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil as good rains and moderate temperatures have been reported. Central America crops are getting harvested or will get harvested soon, and conditions are called good there. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a bit issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by these problems, and many seem to be affected. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.566 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 129.41 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 10,654 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 137.00 March, and resistance is at 150.00, 155.00, and 157.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1940, 2100, and 2290 March. Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1860 March, and resistance is at 1940, 1950, and 1975 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 178.00 March, and resistance is at 188.00, 190.00, and 193.50 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 200,942
: Positions
: 45,551 61,136 35,882 1,924 6,082 27,826 50,902 24,653 8,197 6,687 42,828
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -216 577 140 -40 214 1,409 -1,653 -736 -1,603 1,918 460
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 22.7 30.4 17.9 1.0 3.0 13.8 25.3 12.3 4.1 3.3 21.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 386
: 104 89 24 9 20 48 81 41 72 34 63
————————————————————————————————————–

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower after trading both sides of unchanged. Bears have not been able to push the market below 1900 March to stay and now seem to be getting out of positions, but bulls are not around much due to ideas of big supplies. It was another low volume affair. There was no demand news to support values, but prices are cheaper these days and buyers can get good deals done. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too, although there are some reports of slow harvest progress in Thailand. Chart patterns show that trends turned mixed. Conditions still look good for many production areas. Brazil should get some showers this week, and overall crop development should be good in the center-south region. Southeast Asian Sugar areas are mostly in satisfactory condition, and production in most of the region is expected to be strong. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected. Brazil production continues strong.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2000, 2050, and 2220 March. Support is at 1925, 1905, and 1890 March, and resistance is at 1955, 1990, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 532.00 and 544.00 March. Support is at 517.00, 514.00, and 509.00 March, and resistance is at 527.00, 535.00, and 539.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 881,809
: Positions
: 254,794 419,435 196,867 56,150 47,834 143,588 124,588 63,854 36,798 9,920 67,551
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 1,410 6,908 -88 -799 1,966 4,138 -2,191 -3,506 2,303 -1,172 804
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.9 47.6 22.3 6.4 5.4 16.3 14.1 7.2 4.2 1.1 7.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 215
: 61 55 18 12 23 29 40 33 28 23 35
————————————————————————————————————–

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower again Friday in light volumen trading. Chart trends are down, and many traders remain bearish the market. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals were strong last week, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. Ghana producers are reported to be selling as well. Malaysia has been seeing scattered showers and seems to be in better condition, and Indonesia is seeing beneficial rains. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. The market needs some demand news or some other news to shake it out of the sideways to lower trade.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.764 million bags. LIFFE lots are 3,207 standard lots, 160 large lots, and 3 bulk lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2185 March. Support is at 2230, 2225, and 2195 March, with resistance at 2290, 2300, and 2320 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1430 March. Support is at 1420, 1410, and 1405 March, with resistance at 1455, 1490, and 1515 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 214,981
: Positions
: 67,968 123,781 28,407 11,996 3,293 47,484 14,156 33,710 5,395 2,641 16,999
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 4,535 -5,462 1,153 121 -64 -4,901 1,424 827 -295 483 -1,037
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 31.6 57.6 13.2 5.6 1.5 22.1 6.6 15.7 2.5 1.2 7.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 181
: 31 37 19 5 9 44 30 26 20 17 20
————————————————————————————————————–

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