Morning Grains 12/31/12

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 02, 2013 9 Aug 22, 2012
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 02, 2013 5268 Dec 28, 2012
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 02, 2013 1033 Dec 28, 2012

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher Friday on very strong export sales. Fiscal Cliff fears created some selling interest and also made some buyers reluctant to buy. Ideas are that importers will continue to buy mostly from the US due to price and availability. Some selling pressure came from reports of some precipitation for the Great Plains in the storms last week. There was light precipitation seen mostly for eastern areas, and the next storm looks like it will miss most of the production areas. The cash markets in the US and around the world are firm. World prices keep moving higher, so US Wheat is now competitive or is well below the competition. Conditions for Winter Wheat crops in the US remain an issue as weather in the Great Plains remains very dry and as temperatures remain on the warm side, at least in southern areas. The crop is not in dormancy yet and needs some precipitation to survive.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas could see dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures will be very cold.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 641 March. Support is at 765, 754, and 745 March, with resistance at 784, 791, and 794 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 808, 805, and 710 March. Support is at 816, 804, and 801 March, with resistance at 834, 841, and 852 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 857, 856, and 835 March, and resistance is at 880, 895, and 907 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 532,424
: Positions
: 92,736 182,331 149,136 25,558 17,743 80,998 92,897 60,837 22,876 26,128 73,188
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 7,879 4,791 2,362 -100 -1,036 -2,952 2,513 2,369 123 -411 -2,172
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.4 34.2 28.0 4.8 3.3 15.2 17.4 11.4 4.3 4.9 13.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 404
: 80 102 19 8 21 53 58 51 68 74 90
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 161,736
: Positions
: 40,191 94,140 38,315 2,137 5,897 29,182 5,563 15,606 8,843 9,420 5,574
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 2,422 -1,659 -278 -908 256 -3,204 -285 1,420 -605 -230 -411
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.8 58.2 23.7 1.3 3.6 18.0 3.4 9.6 5.5 5.8 3.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 178
: 48 72 14 4 10 31 10 16 15 22 20
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 44,292
: Positions
: 20,259 30,521 2,481 48 536 6,143 433 265 3,006 1,554 981
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -2,205 -3,045 -4 -15 29 -195 37 82 -102 -25 49
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 45.7 68.9 5.6 0.1 1.2 13.9 1.0 0.6 6.8 3.5 2.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53
: 26 23 . . . 8 . 4 5 . 5
————————————————————————————————————–

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed lower again Friday, with spreads a big feature as traders roll out of January positions. Some speculative and fund selling was noted as traders worry about the fiscal cliff and what it could mean to the US and world economy. Charts show that trends turned back down on Friday. Domestic cash markets are called slow, but with a steady to firm tone. The export sales report once again showed good demand, but less than what has been seen in recent weeks. The export pace has been strong for several weeks now, and more strong business is expected in the short term. The market is still finding little selling interest from producers.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Delta. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1520, 1495, and 1475 March. Support is at 1522, 1510, and 1491 March, with resistance at 1540, 1542, and 1545 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 15,763
: Positions
: 6,973 8,761 1,654 0 73 1,988 2,506 0 1,188 1,800 766
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 324 246 -15 0 0 -254 213 0 17 -12 -183
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 44.2 55.6 10.5 0.0 0.5 12.6 15.9 0.0 7.5 11.4 4.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69
: 22 17 6 0 . 8 8 0 15 4 6
————————————————————————————————————–

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little higher on some speculative short covering pressure along with weak demand ideas and fears about the coming Fiscal Cliff. Demand on the export side remains very weak, but is still not far off the pace needed to meet USDA targets for the year. US prices are still relatively high, and most demand still seems to be filled by Brazil or other sellers at this time. Domestic demand reports have been soft for feed due to reduced animal populations, but domestic demand for ethanol production has held strong and is on pace to meet USDA targets and other industrial demand should be good. Basis levels have been very strong as farmers are not offering much. Some interior basis weakness was noted yesterday as some farmers look to sell ahead of the New Year and potential sharp increase in tax rates. The weather is improved in of South America. Current weather forecasts feature good rains in northern sections of Brazil. Southern Brazil should get some great rains last week. Drier is forecast through the week in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 677 March. Support is at 688, 683, and 665 March, and resistance is at 701, 709, and 714 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 351 March. Support is at 342, 341, and 330 March, and resistance is at 355, 363, and 367 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,519,198
: Positions
: 329,713 654,975 259,336 38,648 48,902 227,394 87,285 190,168 84,076 37,495 221,188
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 14,936 -29,383 2,204 -875 -5,411 -21,199 14,324 5,648 -1,009 -3,080 -384
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.7 43.1 17.1 2.5 3.2 15.0 5.7 12.5 5.5 2.5 14.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 740
: 234 338 20 9 25 77 54 75 101 102 139
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 10,887
: Positions
: 4,660 7,849 1,435 0 0 1,454 0 0 268 1,367 705
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 615 -1,052 -14 0 0 -1,508 0 0 -196 73 193
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 42.8 72.1 13.2 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 12.6 6.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 43
: 14 12 4 0 0 9 0 0 5 8 8
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 8,624
: Positions
: 4,662 5,757 188 0 718 644 72 112 553 480 808
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -192 19 -227 -105 6 292 72 0 195 -78 -270
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 54.1 66.8 2.2 0.0 8.3 7.5 0.8 1.3 6.4 5.6 9.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37
: 16 17 . 0 . . . . 4 . 5
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHICAGO ETHANOL SWAP – NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 42,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025651 Open Interest is 22,326
: Positions
: 19,263 18,665 110 1,400 326 812 0 260 500 618 676
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -139 48 17 -283 39 -100 -55 -45 -13 91 123
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 86.3 83.6 0.5 6.3 1.5 3.6 0.0 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55
: 30 37 . . . . 0 . . 5 4
————————————————————————————————————–

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed higher on ideas of strong demand and despite fears of the impending fiscal cliff. Some farmers were reported to be selling Soybeans this week on ideas that taxes could go up sharply next week when the new year starts.. Reports of improving growing conditions in southern Brazil continue. Too much rain has hurt planting progress in Argentina, but it is drier now and farmers are planting as fast as possible. Forecasts for the week call for good rains in northern sections of Brazil, and crop development is called very good. Southern Brazil should get some very beneficial precipitation as well. Drier weather is expected to continue in most of Argentina. The overall Soybeans demand continues and there is still the threat that the US will sell all it has before too much longer, so the down side for prices could be limited. Basis levels remain strong, and were mostly flat yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1411, 1398, and 1389 March, and resistance is at 1429, 1443, and 1453 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 423.00, 417.00, and 414.00 March, and resistance is at 431.00, 436.00, and 438.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4920, 4850, and 4790 March, with resistance at 4990, 5035, and 5075 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 772,684
: Positions
: 152,274 342,039 97,359 28,042 39,290 135,727 26,720 90,985 37,289 21,978 154,448
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -2,996 -22,456 -2,329 -4,047 -9,053 -17,351 3,632 -13,459 111 -2,100 -46,961
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.7 44.3 12.6 3.6 5.1 17.6 3.5 11.8 4.8 2.8 20.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 463
: 110 130 15 9 23 75 43 78 89 76 124
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 257,334
: Positions
: 72,307 155,544 18,461 3,168 8,252 54,064 12,575 24,743 9,150 6,003 25,636
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -6,775 -13,221 862 486 -863 -5,393 -1,304 -4,716 -1,030 60 -6,950
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.1 60.4 7.2 1.2 3.2 21.0 4.9 9.6 3.6 2.3 10.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 195
: 55 57 14 4 14 40 14 16 21 25 33
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 353,164
: Positions
: 87,064 134,525 88,638 300 6,366 42,581 85,005 27,858 20,537 15,907 49,169
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: -2,873 -8,305 -461 60 -110 -1,821 8,096 -5,177 4,500 -729 -7,438
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.7 38.1 25.1 0.1 1.8 12.1 24.1 7.9 5.8 4.5 13.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 275
: 59 59 16 . 10 28 50 29 35 45 71
————————————————————————————————————–

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher. Chart patterns are mixed after the price action last week. Ideas are that commercials can’t buy Canola in the country even with premiums over posted bids offered. Basis levels were said to be very strong in the Prairies last week. Domestic crushers are looking for seed for processing. Chart patterns are mixed. Farmers have pulled back from the market and offers were hard to find. Ideas are that demand must be rationed this year and that prices will hold generally strong. Palm Oil was lower again on bad demand and after follow through buying tied to reports of flooding in some production areas of Malaysia. Some selling came from reports of less demand from China due to quality changes that start next month. The holiday market is here, and volumes traded are light. Talk of big supplies keeps sellers around. Traders expect demand to hold strong as Palm Oil has favorable pricing for biodiesel producers, but still expect stocks to increase on strong production. However, Palm Oil production could continue to trend lower soon for seasonal reasons and big supplies. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 1.518 million tons, from 1.648 million last month. ITS estimated exports at 1.568 million tons, from 1.663 million last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 587.00, 580.00, and 578.00 March, with resistance at 600.00, 602.00, and 610.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2455, 2440, and 2400 March, with resistance at 2515, 2540, and 2570 March.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Dec 28
Winnipeg–Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended
December 26, 2012, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Week ended Cumulative Cumulative
2012/13 2011/12 2012/13 2011/12
Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Dec 26 150,574 2,915,267 2,606,045 28,785 630,489 550,676
Dec 19 149,661 2,764,693 2,467,195 30,257 601,704 521,838
Dec 12 145,258 2,615,032 2,332,112 30,579 571,447 492,814
Dec 05 131,927 2,469,774 2,197,497 37,532 540,868 464,947
Nov 28 124,809 2,337,847 2,066,022 46,241 503,336 435,090
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 90.6% 89.4% 90.6%
Soybeans 43.7% 48.8% 62.7%
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or
204-414-9084)

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were mixed to mostly lower in quiet trading. Chart patterns show that trends are down in general, but Butter has already fallen a lot and Milk and Cheese and Milk made impressive recovery moves in the last week and might have negated any down trends. Whey futures are still trying to breakout to the up side of the recent trading range, but fell back into the trading range last week and held there Friday. There are ideas that the longer term rally could resume after the first of the year due to strong Asian demand. If so, the price action last week could turn out to mark an important low. The CME auction showed no interest in Milk, but good interest in Cheese and a little interest in Butter. US and EU prices continue to show premiums to other origins. Demand still seems to be good, especially for Cheese, and this demand has held the market at current higher levels
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1810 February, and resistance is at 1870, 1890, and 1915 February. Trends in Cheese are mixed. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 177.00 February, with resistance at 182.00, 183.00, and 183.50 February. Trends in Butter are down with no objectives. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 152.00 February, and resistance is at 156.00, 157.00, and 158.00 February. Trends in Whey are up with objectives of 6200 and 6600 February. Support is at 5900, 5850, and 5800 February, with resistance at 6000, 6100, and 6250 February.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
MILK, Class III – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #052641 Open Interest is 39,053
: Positions
: 20,742 16,765 310 2,603 186 987 0 13 2,372 2,563 9,387
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 862 686 57 31 15 -88 0 8 274 -217 333
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 53.1 42.9 0.8 6.7 0.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.6 24.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 79
: 36 32 . . . 5 0 . 16 12 22
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHEESE (CASH-SETTLED) – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #063642 Open Interest is 6,552
: Positions
: 4,706 2,962 0 370 0 28 0 27 238 1,952 1,066
: Changes from: December 18, 2012
: 187 133 0 61 0 -34 0 27 -5 -5 -49
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 71.8 45.2 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 3.6 29.8 16.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34
: 15 11 0 . 0 . 0 . 5 8 9
————————————————————————————————————–

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Friday, December 28, 2012
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.5600 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.5575 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1109C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Friday, December 28, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.7100 : N.C.
40# BLOCKS : $1.7400 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.7100
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1059C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Friday, December 28, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.4975 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.4900
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1116C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather into next week, but a little snow to the north and rain in the south today. Temperatures should average below normal this week.

FOB Gulf of Mexico of Mexico Basis Levels:
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 50 March 111 March 70 March 108 January 60 January 150 January
January 59 March 119 March 73 March 108 January
February 63 March 76 March 98 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.